Why People Love Saving Money Again
Our reporter Chen Guojing
Recently, "excess savings" has sparked more discussions.
Excess savings, to put it simply, means that compared with previous years, there will be significantly more new deposits of residents in 2022.
According to data released by the People's Bank of China, RMB deposits will increase by 26.26 trillion yuan in 2022, an increase of 6.59 trillion yuan year-on-year.
Among them, household deposits increased by 17.84 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.94 trillion yuan compared with the level for the whole of 2021.
Why do people love saving money again?
Experts in the industry believe that there are many reasons for the substantial increase in residents' deposits and the increase in their willingness to save, both short-term and long-term.
This phenomenon should be faced squarely, and measures should be taken to reasonably guide residents’ expectations, improve residents’ willingness and ability to consume and invest, convert residents’ deposits into long-term funds, and better promote the development of the real economy.
Residents do not like loans but prefer to save money
In 2022, household deposits, that is, household deposits will increase by 17.84 trillion yuan.
An increase of 7.94 trillion yuan over 2021, an increase of 6.54 trillion yuan over 2020, and an increase of 8.14 trillion yuan over 2019, a new high since statistics were available.
With the growth of deposits, household loans are shrinking.
In 2022, household loans, that is, resident loans, will increase by 3.83 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.09 trillion yuan.
Among them, short-term loans increased by 1.08 trillion yuan, and medium and long-term loans increased by 2.75 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 760 billion yuan and 3.33 trillion yuan respectively. The increase in household medium and long-term loans was the lowest since 2015.
The results of the central bank's survey of urban depositors in the fourth quarter of 2022 also show that 61.8% of residents tend to "save more", an increase of 3.7 percentage points from the previous quarter; A decrease of 3.7 percentage points.
Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of China Merchants Union Finance, believes that this reflects the impact of multiple factors, residents' employment and income are not stable enough, precautionary savings motives have increased, daily consumption demand has declined, and housing consumption and investment willingness is not high.
"In recent years, residents' deposits have returned to the growth track, and their proportion in RMB deposits has been increasing year by year." Dong Ximiao said that Chinese residents have long had a relatively strong saving habit. People love to save money, and the savings rate has been relatively high. The ratio of deposits to RMB deposits reached a peak of 60.4% in the third quarter of 1995.
However, with the rapid development of the national economy, the increasing awareness of residents' investment and financial management, and the abundant supply of financial products, residents' willingness to save has declined. At the end of 2017, the proportion of residents' deposits in RMB deposits fell to 39.2%.
But in recent years, this trend has changed.
The proportion of resident deposits in RMB deposits has gradually increased since 2018, reaching 45.4% by the first quarter of 2022.
Dong Ximiao believes that this shows that the rapid growth of resident deposits and the increase in the proportion have initially shown a long-term trend.
The superposition of multiple factors pushes up the willingness to save
Why do people like saving money more?
In the eyes of industry experts, this is caused by the superposition of multiple factors.
Lou Feipeng, a researcher at the Postal Savings Bank of China, believes that in 2022, residents' deposits will increase rapidly, and the amount of new deposits will hit a new high since statistics are available. This situation is the result of a combination of factors.
First of all, under the impact of the epidemic, residents' employment income is affected, their expectations for the future are unstable, their consumption behavior is more cautious, and they actively increase their deposits.
Secondly, under the impact of last year's epidemic, some consumption scenarios such as service consumption were hindered, which objectively restricted residents' consumption and also increased deposits.
Thirdly, the overall performance of the capital market in 2022 will be poor, and the volatility of wealth management products will increase significantly. There will be two "cleaning" waves. Residents will be more cautious in investing and redeeming investment wealth management products to increase savings.
Finally, affected by fluctuations in the real estate market, residents' consumption for purchasing houses was insufficient, which also led to an increase in deposits.
"The increase in preventive savings motivation is an important reason for the increase in residents' deposits." Dong Ximiao said that last year, the epidemic in my country spread in many places, some enterprises had difficulties in normal production and operation, residents' work and income were unstable, and uncertain factors increased, resulting in an increase in preventive savings motivation. .
At the same time, affected by the turmoil in the international financial market, the volatility of my country's capital market has intensified, and the returns on stocks and funds have dropped significantly. In particular, some bank wealth management products will "break the net" in 2022, resulting in a decline in residents' risk appetite and some funds re-flowing to deposit.
In addition, with the intensification of regulation on the real estate market, residents' willingness to spend on housing continued to weaken, which reduced housing consumption expenditures, and part of them turned into residents' deposits.
From the perspective of long-term factors, Dong Ximiao believes that this is also related to the social security system.
Dong Ximiao said that my country's education, medical care, pension and other systems have been reformed vigorously in recent years. Under the circumstances that the social security system is difficult to fully cover, residents' expectations of uncertainty about future income and expenditure have increased, making residents' awareness of prevention and willingness to save obvious. enhanced.
According to the "2019 Social Blue Book" released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, children's education expenses, pensions, and housing rank among the top three in the total consumption of residents.
However, due to the characteristics of my country's current population structure, residents' overall consumption confidence is relatively low.
The average age of my country's current population is in the period when it contributes the most to savings.
As the main force of consumption, the young and middle-aged groups not only have advantages in income, but also face life pressures such as "the old at the top and the young at the bottom". As a result, their consumption confidence has weakened and their willingness to save has increased.
"If the factors restricting residents' precautionary savings do not change, there will be no retaliatory consumption." Dong Ximiao believes that the continuous increase in residents' deposits will improve the resilience of my country's economic development and enhance the ability of the residents to resist risks, but it also reflects the weakening of residents' expectations for the future. , Insufficient consumer demand, declining investment willingness and other issues.
In the next step, targeted measures should be taken to stabilize residents' expectations and confidence, and further boost residents' consumption and investment.
How to make people dare to spend money
The Central Economic Work Conference made it clear that the recovery and expansion of consumption should be given priority.
Enhance consumption capacity, improve consumption conditions, and innovate consumption scenarios.
In this context, how to convert the excess savings of residents into consumption so that people dare to spend money?
"The effective conversion of excess savings into consumption requires more policy support." Lou Feipeng believes that in order to effectively convert savings into consumption, on the one hand, it is necessary to do a good job in consumption scenarios, especially service industry consumption scenarios. Service consumption is greatly affected by the epidemic. The construction scene promotes recovery; on the other hand, through stabilizing employment, increasing sources of income for low-income groups, and improving residents' expectations, it is possible to expand consumption.
The key to making people dare to spend money and be willing to spend money is to reverse expectations.
Dong Ximiao believes that the macroeconomic market should be further stabilized.
To implement a series of policies and measures for stabilizing the economy introduced earlier, fiscal and monetary policies should be more proactive and active, and continue to help market players relieve difficulties and the real economy recover steadily, stabilize residents' employment, and increase residents' income.
We should continue to unleash the potential of the domestic market, take active and effective measures to change the lack of consumption motivation of residents, improve the consumption environment of residents, cultivate the growth points of medium and high-end consumption, and promote the transformation and upgrading of residents' consumption.
In the opinion of industry experts, to boost residents' consumption should focus on areas such as housing consumption and automobile consumption.
Dong Ximiao said that at present, the real estate market is still relatively sluggish, the transaction volume and transaction value of commercial housing have declined significantly year-on-year, and market confidence and expectations are sluggish.
Judging from the financial data in 2022, the sluggish growth of household loans, especially medium and long-term loans to households, is an important factor dragging down the growth of RMB loans, reflecting that residents' willingness and ability to consume housing are still insufficient.
Therefore, in 2023, efforts should be made on the demand side to further boost residents' willingness and ability to consume housing.
In particular, the "Financial 16" measures should be fully implemented to support the stable and healthy development of the real estate market and change residents' housing consumption expectations.
"From the perspective of residents, high housing loans have a certain inhibitory effect on residents' consumption." Lou Feipeng believes that in 2022, residents will experience a wave of early repayment of housing loans.
On the one hand, due to the increase in residents’ deposits and the lack of suitable investment projects, some groups repay their mortgages when they have the ability to repay; on the other hand, the previous high mortgage interest rates stimulated some stock buyers after the interest rate cut for the first house. willingness to repay the loan, and take the initiative to repay the loan in advance in stages.
Lou Feipeng suggested that relevant policies should be adjusted more quickly.
On the one hand, it is to accelerate the adjustment of stock housing interest rates and weaken the motivation of residents to repay loans in advance. This operation will also help reduce the pressure on residents to repay loans and promote consumption growth; on the other hand, it will strengthen support for improved housing.
Only providing financial support for the first house has limited effect. It is necessary to support the demand for improved housing while supporting the first house. This involves relaxing the policy of recognizing houses and subscribing for loans. For those who do not have a house under their name, they can enjoy first-home loans Interest rates, personal income tax deduction, etc.; in addition, it is also recommended to combine the population and childbearing policy to increase the purchase quota and provide preferential interest rates for families with many children.
In order to further boost housing consumption, Dong Ximiao also suggested that we should continue to increase the implementation of differentiated housing credit policies, speed up the adoption of measures such as reducing the down payment ratio, canceling "recognizing housing and subscribing for loans", and reducing interest rates on existing loans.
The current housing credit policy adjustments are mainly focused on supporting rigid housing demand, and more powerful support measures should be taken in how to better support improved housing demand, and the lower limit of second housing loan interest rates should also be adjusted appropriately.
Proper adjustments should also be made to the purchase restriction policy, such as appropriately relaxing the purchase restriction policy in first- and second-tier cities, and allowing residents who have settled their loans to purchase a third house.
In addition, the promotion of the "transfer with mortgage" model should be accelerated to activate the second-hand housing consumption and trading market.
Expanding automobile consumption is also one of the more effective measures. Experts in the industry suggest that we should continue to increase support.
Dong Ximiao said that in the early days, the bulk consumption of Chinese residents was large electrical appliances such as TVs, air conditioners, and refrigerators, but now they have switched to cars.
Therefore, it is recommended to further guide finance to increase support and services for automobile consumption, especially used car consumption.
Observing my country's auto finance field, banks and professional auto finance companies mainly serve new cars and second-hand car transactions of big brands. The second-hand car market mainly presents a small, scattered, and weak development pattern, resulting in a small average loan amount per car and high operating costs. , it is difficult to get strong support from financial institutions.
At present, the financial penetration rate of my country's second-hand car market is about 29%, which is far lower than the financial penetration rate of about 70% in the United States.
It is recommended to relax policy restrictions and support consumer finance companies to carry out second-hand car loan business.
The customer base characteristics of consumer finance companies are naturally compatible with the second-hand car market customer base and new citizen groups.
If consumer finance companies are supported to develop used car loan services, it will not only help to further meet the consumer demand for used cars, stimulate the release of car consumption potential, but also form a dislocation service pattern with auto finance companies, and conduct professional competition in consumer credit for new citizens , Force practitioners to better serve and benefit customers, and become a win-win institutional arrangement for all parties.
In addition, Dong Ximiao also suggested that residents' investment and financial management channels should be enriched.
Cultivate the concept of value investment and long-term investment, vigorously develop the capital market and wealth management market, develop enterprise annuity, occupational annuity, health and pension insurance business, innovate financial products, and promote the effective transformation of residents' savings into long-term funds in the asset management market through multiple channels.
At the same time, in the long run, the social security system with full coverage should be further improved to better meet the urgent needs of residents in pension, medical care, education, etc., reduce the worries of residents and thus reduce the willingness to save preventively, and promote the common prosperity of all people .