Author: Lu Ruyi
This Friday (February 3) at 24:00 will usher in a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window. Judging from the current monitoring situation of crude oil change rate, it is expected that domestic oil prices will usher in the first price increase after the Spring Festival.
Zhuo Chuang information data monitoring model calculation data, as of January 30, that is, the sixth working day of the new round of oil price adjustment, the crude oil change rate is 6.22%, it is estimated that gasoline and diesel will increase by 280 yuan / ton, after converting into , It is expected to increase by 0.22~0.24 yuan/liter, or the second price increase in 2023.
On January 3, domestic refined oil has just completed its first price increase in 2023.
The National Development and Reform Commission stated on January 3 that according to the recent changes in oil prices in the international market and in accordance with the current refined oil price formation mechanism, starting from 24:00 on January 3, 2023, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will increase by 250 yuan and 240 yuan per ton respectively. Yuan, converted into a price increase of 0.19 yuan/liter to 0.21 yuan/liter.
According to the current refined oil price formation mechanism, the main basis for domestic refined oil price adjustments is the rate of change obtained by comparing the weighted average price of international crude oil prices for ten working days with the weighted average price of international crude oil prices in the previous cycle.
The price of domestic refined oil products is affected by the trend of international oil prices, and the recent rebound in international oil prices is mainly due to the recovery of demand in the Chinese market and the production strategy of OPEC+.
Gui Chenxi, chief energy analyst at CITIC Futures, believes: "Short-term financial sentiment pushes up oil prices, and we need to pay attention to the degree of demand fulfillment. If China's demand recovers better after the Spring Festival, there may still be room for oil prices to rise, otherwise it may fall back and take a rest. Mid-term Looking at it, oil prices may still remain volatile, with limited fluctuations."
From the perspective of policy, on February 1, the OPEC Supervisory Committee will hold an online meeting to evaluate the progress of supply and demand and production policy.
As of now, industry experts preliminarily predict that the probability of policy adjustment is small, and OPEC may maintain the status quo of production reduction.
The reporter noticed that the recent decision of OPEC and other oil-producing countries to continue to cut production has provided a bottom support for oil prices from the supply side.
On October 5, 2022, the OPEC meeting announced that the production quota would be reduced by 2 million barrels per day; on December 4, the OPEC meeting announced that the production reduction will continue in 2023.
From the perspective of the supply side, the European Union will ban Russia's seaborne imports of refined oil starting from February 5.
The price limit order stipulates that the European Union will implement a new price cap on the export of Russian refined oil products including diesel oil, and limit the export price of Russian diesel oil between US$100/barrel and US$110/barrel. This plan has also been approved. G7 (Group of Seven) agreed.
However, domestic refined oil prices have been relatively less affected by the sanctions.
"After the official implementation of the EU's import sanctions on Russian refined oil products, it may boost the price of overseas refined oil products in the short term, and indirectly affect the supply and demand of domestic refined oil products through export trade. However, because we have an export quota policy, domestic and foreign refined oil products will The price linkage is relatively not that strong, so domestic refined oil prices are relatively less affected by the sanctions.” Gui Chenxi analyzed.