(Economic Observer) How to deal with the "exceeding expectations" in the government work reports of 31 provinces?

  China News Agency, Beijing, January 31. Question: How to deal with "exceeding expectations" in the 31 provincial government work reports?

  Author Liu Wenwen

  The 2023 government work reports of China's 31 provinces have been released one after another, planning and deploying key tasks.

  In the face of the ever-changing international and domestic situation, what are the "exceeding expectations" that need to be vigilant, and how should we meet new opportunities and challenges?

  What challenges do you face?

  A review of the government work reports of 31 provinces in 2023 found that many provinces clearly pointed out that "the foundation for economic recovery is not yet solid."

  For example, the government work reports of Hebei, Guangdong, and Jilin stated that the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations is still relatively large; Guangdong and Ningxia believe that the problem of imbalance and incoordination is still prominent.

  The government work reports of Beijing and Henan mentioned that the foundation for economic recovery is not yet solid, and enterprises, especially small, medium and micro enterprises, have more difficulties in production and operation.

  In addition, some provinces pay special attention to external risks, and believe that the current external environment is uncertain and unpredictable.

  Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), predicts that global economic growth will continue to slow down in 2023.

The World Bank has warned that global economic growth is slowing sharply to the point that it is "dangerously close to a recession".

  Many provinces have been vigilant about this.

Shanghai pointed out that the current world is undergoing rapid changes unseen in a century, a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation is in-depth development, the epidemic of the century has far-reaching impacts, anti-globalization trends are on the rise, and uncertain and unpredictable factors are increasing.

  The Fujian Provincial Government Work Report stated that the current international economic environment is becoming more complex and severe, and insufficient external demand will have a greater impact on the province.

  How to properly deal with these challenges has become the focus of economic work in various parts of China in 2023.

  Promoting consumption and expanding domestic demand are mandatory questions

  How to promote consumption and expand domestic demand is a must-answer question for this year's economy.

It is especially necessary to boost domestic demand when the foundation for economic recovery in many provinces is not yet solid.

  Zhao Jian, the founding director of the Xijing Research Institute, said that with the adjustment of the epidemic prevention and control policy, China's demand will show a warming trend.

However, we need to be alert to the collapse of external demand caused by the global economic recession and the transfer of supply chains in developed countries.

Therefore, there is an urgent need to expand domestic demand.

  Wang Jun, chief economist of Huatai Assets and director of the China Chief Economist Forum, also reminded that at present, China needs to restore economic growth to the potential growth rate as soon as possible to boost business and consumer confidence.

  Shen Jianguang, chief economist of Jingdong Group, believes that consumption is expected to pick up in 2023, but the degree of recovery still faces many uncertainties, and further policies need to be strengthened.

  Multiple measures to boost market expectations

  Recently, various localities have launched a number of measures to help companies bail out, cultivate and strengthen market players.

Enterprises have resumed work and production in an orderly manner, and the work of ensuring market players has achieved positive results. However, the current expectations of market players are still fragile, and their vitality still needs to be improved.

  Many provinces have mentioned in their government work reports that enterprises, especially small, medium and micro enterprises, have more difficulties in production and operation, and put forward requirements and related measures to improve the expectations of market players.

  For example, Beijing proposed to focus on enhancing the vitality of various enterprises.

Zhejiang stated that it will accelerate the pace of digitalization in manufacturing, service, agriculture and other industries.

  Zhao Jian believes that as China's economy and society gradually get rid of the epidemic and enter a state of normal operation, the scale effect and resilience of the economy of a major country will appear again, and the expectations of economic entities will gradually recover.

  Seeking Security in the Global System

  Analysts believe that how to resolve external risks is also a major test for the provinces.

  Zhao Jian pointed out that China's energy, food and other economic security issues need to be placed in the global system to seek supply guarantees.

In his view, all this depends on the improvement of the internal and external business environment. Internally, local government functions need to be transformed, and externally, an international environment that is conducive to China's economic development needs to be created.

  Guo Liyan, director and researcher of the Comprehensive Situation Research Office of the China Academy of Macroeconomic Research, believes that the fundamentals of China's long-term economic growth have not changed, and the overall economy is expected to rebound in 2023.

The industrial system is resilient, the market has great potential, and domestic demand will further strengthen the support momentum for economic growth, which can effectively hedge and defuse adverse shocks.