Setting off fireworks, shopping in supermarkets, traveling... When "Chinese New Year in situ" has gradually become a thing of the past, the number of people returning home has increased significantly, and the taste of the New Year in major cities has gradually returned.
In the Spring Festival of the Year of the Rabbit in 2023, many industries and consumption scenarios will have a "good start".
"I didn't expect so many people in the mall, I thought there would be fewer people during the New Year." During the Spring Festival, Zhang Rui (pseudonym) from Hebei was shocked by the lively scene in his hometown mall.
From the second day to the sixth day of the Lunar New Year, most of the central shopping areas in Shijiazhuang that Zhang Rui visited were crowded with people buying clothes and jewelry, and the popular restaurants had to wait to be seated.
A number of people from real estate companies also told China Business News that during the long Spring Festival holiday, the performance of the group’s shopping malls was generally gratifying. Some shopping malls recovered significantly during the holidays, and doubled their growth compared to before the Spring Festival; some shopping malls sold gold and jewelry brands. The year-on-year increase was nearly 200%, and the sales of international beauty brands also hit a new high for the year.
The industry believes that under the influence of the epidemic, people are more concerned about the safety and convenience of travel, and the frequency and willingness of cross-regional consumption are affected, and they are more inclined to experience consumption in the place of residence.
For regional shopping centers, consumer demand is rigid and frequent, and rigid demand consumption is less affected by the epidemic, and commercial passenger flow recovers faster.
Happy New Year's Eve in Shopping Centers
The commercial real estate market has experienced a protracted downturn over the past year.
According to the monitoring data of Crane Asset Management (CAIC), in 2022, except for Shenzhen, the average vacancy rate of shopping centers in key cities will continue to rise. The vacancy rate of Hangzhou is 2.9%, which is the lowest among key cities. The vacancy rates of Beijing and Shanghai are 7% respectively. % and 7.3%, Guangzhou and Wuhan had the highest average vacancy rates, at 9.4% and 9.6% respectively.
The pace of new mall openings has also slowed.
According to CAIC data, in 2022, the newly opened projects and opening rate of shopping centers are at a recent historical low. As of December 20, 2022, there were only 305 newly opened projects, a year-on-year decrease of 44.2%; the new opening rate of shopping centers was only 34.1%. It is lower than the 45.9% and 49.1% in the two years before the epidemic.
"This is mainly affected by the epidemic, and many projects have been delayed. If these delayed projects are concentrated in 2023, it may have a greater impact on commercial real estate." The above-mentioned research institution stated.
However, with the continuous optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures and the increase in the number of people returning home, consumption in offline supermarkets is showing a significant recovery.
During the Golden Week of the Spring Festival, shopping malls across the country ushered in a small upsurge in consumption, and the commercial real estate brands of many real estate companies have significantly warmed up.
Longfor Group told China Business News that during the Spring Festival, theme activities were launched in many sky streets, and the passenger flow recovered significantly.
Among them, Longfor Beijing Changying Paradise Street takes "unbounded light and shadow" as the theme to create outdoor giant lighting decorations to create a new Spring Festival atmosphere.
Consumer demand for various categories has increased significantly.
During the period, the sales of gold and jewelry brands in the above shopping malls were booming, with sales increasing by nearly 200% year-on-year, and the sales of international beauty brands also hit a new high for the year.
In terms of catering, the demand for reunion dinners has surged.
At the same time, Beijing Lize Paradise Street created an oriental aesthetics-themed immersion exhibition during the Spring Festival, and Beijing Fangshan Paradise Street launched a New Year scene with the theme of "Wonderful Meeting with Luoshen". During the Spring Festival, the sales of the project increased by 149% month-on-month.
In addition, Longfor Chongqing Beicheng Tianjie also launched a series of New Year activities, and the overall passenger flow has recovered significantly, which has doubled compared to before the Spring Festival.
During the Spring Festival in Jiaozhou Paradise Street, Qingdao, the theme activity of "Wonderful Meeting Koi Playing in Spring" was held, and the local government also gave consumption voucher subsidies to help the return of consumption scenes.
As another mainstream commercial real estate brand in China, Wanda Plaza also enjoys considerable traffic during the Spring Festival.
According to the group's data, from New Year's Eve to the sixth day of the Lunar New Year, Wanda's 480 Wanda Plazas across the country had a passenger flow of 160 million and a sales revenue of 12.68 billion yuan. Compared with the same period in 2019, the passenger flow of Wanda Plazas increased by 15% and sales increased by 29%.
During the Spring Festival, Wanda’s 825 movie theaters had 17.17 million moviegoers and a revenue of 1.195 billion yuan, including 1.04 billion yuan at the box office, accounting for 15.5% of the national box office market share. The single-screen revenue is more than twice the industry average. Attendance was flat, revenue rose 5.8%, and box office rose 5.7%.
Wanda Baby King Paradise has 385 stores across the country. During the Spring Festival, the passenger flow was 8.2 million, and the revenue was 85 million. Comparable parks recovered to 91% of passenger flow and 95% of revenue in 2019, higher than the national industry level.
Crane believes that due to the continuous and repeated impact of the epidemic, inter-provincial travel has decreased, and the trend of "localization" of leisure and entertainment has increased, leading to "micro vacations" in cities such as business + paradise, business + theater, business + urban farm, and outlets + N style shopping center.
For business, enhancing the experience is always the key to breaking the situation of offline consumption, which is an eternal theme.
Real estate enterprises, culture and tourism are popular
In addition to meeting daily consumption needs in supermarkets, traveling during the Spring Festival holiday has become a major trend.
Go to Dali, Yunnan, go to the northern snowfield, and post a ski photo in Moments has become a new way of socializing.
According to data recently released by the Data Center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, during the Spring Festival, 308 million domestic tourists traveled nationwide, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%, and recovered to 88.6% of the same period during the Spring Festival holiday in 2019.
Realized domestic tourism revenue of 375.843 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.0%, recovering to 73.1% of the same period during the Spring Festival holiday in 2019.
In Nuoda’s cultural tourism market, many well-known real estate brands have entered the market earlier. From characteristic towns, large-scale cultural tourism cities, to outdoor scene creation, developers are deeply impressed by the return of this tourism boom.
Wanda told reporters that during the holidays, Wanda Changbai Mountain Resort was crowded with people and it was hard to find a room. The revenue of the eight hotels was 42 million, a year-on-year increase of 52%.
Danzhai Wanda Town had a passenger flow of 289,000 during the Spring Festival, a year-on-year increase of 46%.
During the Spring Festival in Yan'an Red Street, the number of passengers was 388,000, a substantial increase over last year.
In addition to vacationing at traditional tourist attractions, ice and snow sports have become popular in the "circle of friends" during the Spring Festival this year.
As an early developer involved in the cultural tourism industry, the Cultural Tourism City under Sunac has become a popular place for ice and snow lovers.
According to Sunac, during the holidays, Sunac Culture and Tourism’s various businesses launched festive activities. Wuxi Hot Snow Miracle broke through the highest single-day reception since its opening. The volume increased by more than 30% year-on-year.
Take Wuxi Hot Snow Miracle (Sunac Snow World) as an example. The park is one of the five major formats of Wuxi Sunac Cultural Tourism City Park. It opened on June 29, 2019. It is currently the only one in East China that integrates indoor skiing and snow entertainment. The ski resort is also the first ice and snow park in Jiangsu Province, covering the entire population of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai. During the Spring Festival, it broke through the highest single-day reception since its opening.
Kerui said that due to the impact of the epidemic in the past three years, the domestic cultural and tourism industry has been slow to recover and develop.
Now that the epidemic prevention and control policy is gradually being relaxed, the total number of domestic tourists and the total tourism revenue after three years of struggle are gradually returning to the level of seven years ago.
For cultural tourism real estate companies, the era of sales is over, and the cultural tourism market will enter a new era in 2023.
In the new era, if cultural tourism projects want to be successful, they must have the characteristics of cultural tourism, give priority to potential suburban sites, and be patient enough to ferment.
First Finance and Economics Author: Sun Mengfan