Fundamental fiscal balance showing fiscal soundness Expand deficit in FY2025 despite high economic growth

The Cabinet Office has compiled the latest estimates of the "primary balance of payments," one of the indicators of fiscal soundness.

Even assuming high economic growth, the government expects a deficit of about 1.5 trillion yen in fiscal 2025, which is the target of surplus, and the increase in defense spending makes it harder to achieve the target. is increasing.

At the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy on the 24th, the Cabinet Office showed the latest estimates of the ``basic fiscal balance,'' which indicates how much tax revenue can be used to cover the costs of policies without relying on government bonds.

Based on the recent economic growth performance, assuming that both the real and nominal growth rate excluding price fluctuations will continue in the mid-0% range, the government aims to return to a surplus in fiscal 2025. We expect a deficit of around 100 million yen.

On the other hand, even assuming a high annual economic growth of about 2% in real terms, the deficit will reach about 1.5 trillion yen in FY2025, which is about 1 trillion yen wider than the previous estimate. We expect the turnaround to be delayed until the next fiscal year, which is FY2026.

The government plans to secure defense spending of around 43 trillion yen over the next five years from the new fiscal year in order to strengthen its defense capabilities, and the fact that expenditures are expected to increase significantly from the past has affected the budget calculations.

However, the Cabinet Office says that if it continues to make efforts to improve expenditure efficiency, it will be possible to achieve its goal of achieving a surplus by the end of fiscal 2025.

In order to achieve the goal of fiscal consolidation, we will steadily put the economy on a growth trajectory, and in the mid- to long-term expansion of expenditures such as defense and social security expenditures, we will continue to reform expenditures and secure the necessary financial resources. It will be questioned how to work towards.

Prime Minister Kishida "Strive to achieve both economic revitalization and fiscal consolidation"

Prime Minister Kishida said, "With increasing uncertainty, it will not be easy to achieve a surplus in the primary balance in fiscal 2025. We will strive to achieve both economic revitalization and fiscal consolidation so as not to lose confidence in the government."