In 2022, the total volume of construction in Russia increased by at least 6-6.5%, and the construction of residential facilities increased by 10% at once and reached the maximum level in the recent history of the country.

Such preliminary estimates on Monday, January 23, were presented by Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin.

“Commissioning of housing, we already see, will be more than 101.5 million square meters.

m ... Moreover, in 2021 we had this figure (92.6 million sq. M. -

RT

) the largest in history since the Soviet Union.

This made it possible to improve the living conditions of 3.6 million families,” Khusnullin said at a meeting with Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.

As President Vladimir Putin noted earlier, the construction industry managed to show growth last year even against the backdrop of unprecedented external pressure and a slight recession in the economy.

Moreover, according to government estimates, by the end of 2023, about 100 million sq.

m of housing, writes TASS.

In general, the construction industry has been showing positive dynamics for the past three years, Marat Khusnullin emphasized.

Specialists largely attribute this dynamic to the launch and expansion of preferential mortgage programs during the coronavirus pandemic.

Recall that today all Russians can apply for a loan for the purchase of real estate at a subsidized rate of 8% per annum.

In addition, parents with one child born in 2018 or later, as well as families with at least two children under the age of 18, have the opportunity to take out a mortgage at 6%.

Such loans can be obtained by purchasing housing worth up to 12 million rubles in the Moscow and St. Petersburg agglomerations and up to 6 million rubles in other regions of the country.

“Record-low interest rates for Russia and wide coverage of citizens within the framework of state-subsidized programs led to a sharp increase in housing demand in 2020.

In response to this, developers began to rapidly increase the construction of new residential facilities, ”Alexey Fedorov, an analyst at TeleTrade, explained to RT.

According to him, the average duration of the production cycle in the construction sector is about two years.

Thus, the record volumes of housing introduced in 2022 correspond to the rush demand of 2020, the specialist explained.

“According to this logic, in 2023, objects launched back in 2021 will be removed, when there was still a rush in the real estate market.

That is, even then, preferential programs provided quite good results for this year, so the authorities' forecasts of maintaining the volume of housing commissioning near 100 million square meters.

m are quite realistic, ”added Fedorov.

The price of the hype

The high demand for real estate in the previous few years has allowed developers to make significant profits, and companies began to buy more and more new sites for the construction of objects.

However, in recent years, the interest of citizens in buying a home has already noticeably weakened, as Irina Radchenko, vice president of the International Academy of Mortgage and Real Estate, told RT.

“Now the demand is in a depressed state, as the price per square meter is far from reality.

They do not correspond to either the real incomes of the population or any investment strategy, which is why the market has lost its attractiveness.

During the pandemic, when there was a boom in demand and the government supported the construction industry with preferential mortgages, developers raised prices as much as possible, wanting to make money,” Radchenko explained.

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Back in the fourth quarter of 2019, a square meter of housing in a new building cost an average of about 64 thousand rubles in Russia, and about 59 thousand rubles in finished houses.

Meanwhile, by the end of 2020, the values ​​increased to 79,000 and 67,000 rubles, respectively, and by the end of 2021, to 99,000 and 77,000 rubles.

This is evidenced by the materials of the Federal State Statistics Service of the country.

The steady rise in prices continued last year as well.

So, according to the latest estimates from Rosstat, in the third quarter of 2022, the cost per square meter of housing in the primary market was already about 121 thousand rubles, and in the secondary market - almost 93 thousand rubles.

In such conditions, preferential mortgage programs are no longer able to support the demand for housing, Irina Radchenko believes.

Against this background, in her opinion, in the foreseeable future, real estate prices in Russia may begin to fall and gradually return to the levels of 2019.

“Of course, there are factors due to which new surges in demand and, as a result, prices are possible.

For example, with the instability of the ruble exchange rate and the acceleration of inflation, people will begin to shift money from deposits into bricks to save their savings.

However, in the absence of any financial shocks, I see no other reasons this year that could keep prices from falling to pre-pandemic levels, ”the expert noted.

A similar point of view is shared by Alexei Fedorov.

According to him, in 2023 the demand for real estate in Russia may be reduced by about 15-20% compared to 2022.

In this case, developers will be forced to increasingly offer discounts to their customers, the analyst believes.

“Already in the second half of 2022, some developers offered 25% discounts on housing.

This year, this may become the norm, and in order to really maintain sales volumes, companies will have to cut prices further.

As a result, by the end of 2023, we can get a decline in prices in the housing market by an average of 10-15%,” the specialist concluded.