In the first quarter of this year, the scale of bonds due by real estate companies was 222.5 billion yuan, and the financing environment may be further improved
Since November 2022, policies to support the financing of real estate companies have continued. The key to whether real estate companies can really get out of the trough lies in financing.
On January 23, according to a report released by the Crane Research Center, entering 2023, the financing support policies for real estate companies are still being released.
For example, on January 10 this year, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission held a symposium on bank credit work to keep real estate financing stable and orderly, and implemented a plan to improve the balance sheets of high-quality real estate companies. The "window period" for high-quality real estate company financing has arrived.
This is still the year of debt repayment
According to CRIC data, the total amount of real estate financing in 2022 will decrease by nearly 40% year-on-year.
At the same time, 2023 is still the "debt repayment year" for real estate companies, and the pressure on real estate companies to mature their debts is still enormous.
According to CRIC data, the total new financing of 100 typical real estate companies in 2022 will be 824.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38%.
Since 2016, the total scale of financing for the whole year has fallen below 1 trillion yuan for the first time.
Judging from the total financing volume of typical real estate companies over the years, 2021 will see negative growth for the first time in the past five years, with a total financing volume of 1,327.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25%.
The downward trend of the financing scale in 2022 is still expanding, and the total financing scale in 2022 will continue to expand by 13 percentage points to 38% compared with 2021.
It is worth noting that the overall financing cost will usher in a structural decline in 2022. The new financing cost of 100 real estate companies in the whole year is 4.23%, which is 1.15 percentage points lower than that in 2021.
This is related to the large-scale reduction in overseas financing of real estate companies and the higher proportion of bond issuance by high-quality private companies. In 2022, the five real estate companies, China Merchants Shekou, Vanke, China Resources, Capital Development and China Shipping, accounted for 36.5% of the total financing. Structural pull Low overall financing costs.
Judging from the data, in 2022, more real estate companies will turn to domestic financing.
According to the CRIC report, from the perspective of financing structure, domestic bond financing will account for the highest proportion in 2022, reaching 71%.
The decline in overseas debt financing was particularly pronounced, with a year-on-year decrease of 69% to 108 billion yuan.
In 2022, the amount of bonds issued by enterprises will be 452.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28%.
Among them, domestic bond issuance was 358.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1%; while overseas bond issuance fell sharply by 64% year-on-year to 93.5 billion yuan, accounting for a year-on-year decrease of 21 percentage points to 21%.
In the short term, overseas financing for real estate companies will remain low.
The financing environment may further improve
The data monitored by CRIC shows that in the first three quarters of 2023, real estate companies will usher in a wave of large-scale debt repayments, with the total size of maturing bonds reaching 552.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%.
Among them, 280.5 billion yuan of domestic bonds matured, and 272.4 billion yuan of overseas bonds matured.
Debt repayment pressure was mainly concentrated in the first quarter. The scale of maturing bonds reached 222.5 billion yuan, of which a total of 40 bonds matured in January. After excluding the part that has been redeemed in advance, the amount was about 91.6 billion yuan, an increase of 476% from the previous month.
Since 2021, the amount of bonds issued by real estate companies has been less than the amount due for a long time, and the debt repayment of real estate companies has been under pressure.
It is worth noting that in this wave of maturing bonds, 408.1 billion yuan belonged to private real estate companies, accounting for 73%. Some private companies are still under great pressure to repay their debts, and default events may be exposed.
With the promulgation of the "Financial 16 Measures", the reasonable extension of credit and bonds of real estate companies has received policy support, the pressure on maturity has been eased, and real estate companies have also received some respite accordingly.
Crane predicts that the supply-side reform of real estate companies will come to an end in 2023, and the overall financing environment of enterprises may be further improved under stable credit, and real estate companies should actively seize the financing window period.
In the future, equity financing may become an important channel for real estate companies to finance. More high-quality listed real estate companies may raise funds through additional issuance and allotment of shares, which can not only alleviate corporate financing difficulties, but also reduce the overall debt ratio, and reduce corporate debt to a certain extent. debt risk.
With the financing environment further tightened, the real escape of real estate companies still needs to rely on the improvement of sales and operation.
The Paper reporter Li Xiaoqing