The Paper reporter Liu Chang Tang Yingying Ji Simin

  Since the release of the "New Ten Measures for Epidemic Prevention" in early December 2022, the mainland and Hong Kong will resume normal customs clearance on January 8, 2023, and then on January 20, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism will announce that outbound group travel and tourism will resume on a pilot basis from February 6. For the "air ticket + hotel" business, in less than two months, inter-provincial travel, Hong Kong travel, and outbound travel have all resumed in an orderly manner.

  The Paper interviewed the tourism industry chain, including domestic tourist attractions, hotel chains, online travel platforms, and outbound travel operators, about their outlook on the tourism market in 2023.

Many companies believe that the overall recovery of tourism is positive, and it is expected that in the summer of 2023, the changes in the inbound and outbound tourism market will be more clearly felt, and "poems and distant places are returning."

  Summer will usher in a "rocket-like crest"

  Xu Bingxuan, Global Partner of Fosun, Co-President of Fosun Tourism, and CEO of Club Med China, said that recently, resorts and tourist destinations such as Club Med and Atlantis Sanya have shown strong recovery momentum.

As of January 7, 2023, Club Med's Chinese business Spring Festival holiday (January 19-January 26) bookings have increased by nearly 40% compared with the same period of the 2022 Spring Festival, and it has also increased compared to the same period of the 2019 Spring Festival.

  During the New Year's Day in 2023, Club Med Joyview Anji Resort and Gold Coast Resort are close to full rooms, reflecting the strong growth and demand for tourism around Shanghai and Beijing.

Atlantis Sanya also maintains a strong appeal to domestic vacation consumers with its constantly upgraded content experience. After entering 2023, the occupancy rate has always remained above 90%, and the average occupancy rate during the New Year's Day holiday has reached 97.4%.

Club Med has resorts in Phuket, Bintan and other Southeast Asian regions. Due to the influence of local friendly policies, it is expected to recover soon.

  As China's entry and exit policies have basically returned to those before the epidemic, the industry is looking forward to a "retaliatory" recovery in outbound tourism as a whole.

Xu Bingxuan believes that the current outbound travel is in a state of gradual recovery. The real flight recovery will be in the second quarter, and the real peak of outbound travel—the rocket-like peak—should be in the summer.

  Xu Bingxuan believes that for cultural tourism companies, the biggest opportunity is the rapid and massive market demand after the big waves wash away the sand.

For us, in such an environment, it is even more necessary to provide high-quality tourism and vacation products and comprehensive tourism ground services.

  Zhongxin Tourism said that the tourism industry is currently mainly based on domestic tourism, and the domestic tourism market for the Spring Festival is showing a recovery trend. Supplemented by studying abroad.

The booking of domestic Spring Festival products shows two directions of "one cold and one hot": go to cold places to experience ice and snow, such as going to Chongli to ski to experience ice and snow, parent-child igloo, skiing and other winter camp products are more concerned; the other direction is Go to warm places to escape the cold, such as going to Sanya for vacation, going to Guangdong for health care, etc.

  Zhongxin Tourism predicts that in the future, the domestic tourism market will drive outbound tourism, and peripheral tourism will drive the trend of long-term cross-border tourism, which will gradually recover.

Therefore, in the early stage of liberalization, the purpose of going abroad showed diversified and customized needs. In the short term, it mainly focused on long-term outbound needs such as business visits, visiting relatives abroad, and studying abroad. Overseas health care also showed new demand. It is expected that in 2023 The changes in the inbound and outbound tourism market can be more clearly felt during the May Day Golden Week or summer vacation.

  According to the Spring and Autumn Tourism Statistics, the number of tourists in Shanghai and surrounding areas is basically the same as the same period last year; the number of tourists traveling to long-distance destinations across provinces has increased by more than 50% compared with the same period last year.

Zhou Weihong, deputy general manager of Spring and Autumn Tourism, said that although only a single service can be provided, overseas destinations have reappeared on the business list after all, and the current data on the number of people traveling across provinces, methods, and destinations can basically feel the long-awaited "Poetry and the distance" is gradually returning.

  Listed tourism companies raise performance targets

  With the first release of domestic tourism demand, in order to seize the tourism "window period" of the New Year's Day and Spring Festival holidays to attract tourists, many places have issued "free" ticket invitations, and some provinces and cities have launched the first discounted tickets of the year, spreading tens of millions of words Travel coupons.

Among them, Yunnan tourism is gaining momentum.

  The listed company Yunnan Tourism stated that the tourism market in Yunnan is gradually recovering.

After the epidemic prevention and control policy is relaxed, as the risk of epidemic infection increases, there will be some impact and pressure on travel and tourists' psychology in the short term.

Judging from the current monitoring situation, it has not yet returned to the level before the epidemic. However, recovery is definitely a trend, but it has not been particularly obvious in the short term.

  Yunnan Tourism believes that in the short term, the tourism market may still be under certain pressure, but in the long run it is gradually recovering.

The company's specific operating conditions may still need a process to reflect.

  Tianmu Lake, which has been profitable for two consecutive quarters, believes that the overall trend of tourism is positive, and the Spring Festival bookings have also recovered well compared with previous years.

At the same time, Tianmu Lake responded to the national 5A scenic spot free of charge activities, and it is expected that the Spring Festival tourism situation will be relatively good.

  Xi'an Tourism said that with the gradual liberalization of policies, the company's travel agencies and hotels are preparing for the recovery of tourism and economic recovery after the epidemic. It will take time to reflect in economic indicators, but everything is recovering.

  According to a report by Xinhua Finance on January 17, Zhang Jianbin, executive president of Haichang Ocean Park, introduced that Zhengzhou Haichang Ocean Park, which is under construction by the company, is expected to open in 2023.

In addition, the company will accelerate the construction of a boutique aquarium.

It is reported that the company currently has nearly 20 boutique aquariums, and it is expected to reach 40 to 50 by the end of this year.

In addition, the second phase of Shanghai Haichang Ocean Park, located in Lingang, Shanghai, is under construction and will open in 2024.

  It is reported that the operation of Haichang Ocean Park has accelerated recently. Among them, the current occupancy rate of the Ocean Resort Hotel has reached 70%, and it is fully booked during the Spring Festival. The company's internal performance indicators for 2023 will be higher than those for 2019. 

  Dai Bin, president of the China Tourism Academy, said at the "Yangtze River Three Gorges Cultural Tourism Development Forum" held in Chongqing on January 8 that it is expected that the number of domestic tourists and tourism revenue in China will recover to 70% to 75% of the pre-epidemic level in 2023.

  Liang Jianzhang, co-founder and chairman of the board of directors of Ctrip Group, judged that to restore the confidence of tourism practitioners, especially small and micro enterprises, a process of "melting the ice" is needed.

In addition, it will take time for international routes to resume.

If these repairs can be completed in the first half of the year, the Chinese tourism market is expected to usher in a retaliatory rebound in the second half of the year, which is worth looking forward to.

He believes that the current challenge is that it will take some time for international flights to resume. Some valuable popular destinations and popular flights may be in short supply. Ctrip is actively responding.

  Tuniu Travel.com believes that the tourism industry has ushered in a recovery, everyone's travel demand is gradually released, the number of domestic flights is recovering rapidly, and international flights are also recovering steadily.

In December 2022, the bookings of vacation products on Tuniu.com will double from the previous month, and the daily average in January 2023 will double that of December last year.

We believe that in 2023, with the implementation of the rural revitalization strategy and the increase of inbound and outbound exchanges, the tourism industry will further release the pent-up demand and huge potential of the past two years.

  After three years of "big test", Tuniu is currently in a stage of steady recovery.

In order to better respond to changes in the internal and external environment, Tuniu is actively making various preparations, integrating company resources, including tourism resources, personnel and funds, and focusing on the main tourism business, so as to meet the long-term development of the industry.

  Qunar CMO Huang Xiaojie said that after the optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures, the domestic tourism industry is recovering in an orderly manner.

"We have seen that during the Spring Festival, the average radius of passenger travel increases, the proportion of hotel stay orders is increasing, and the bookings of economical and comfortable hotels have increased significantly, which means the recovery of public travel and consumer confidence. For 2023, We are optimistic, and although there will be some changes in the process, these changes are positive. As an online travel platform, Qunar hopes to face these changes and create a better experience for tourists.”

  "As long as the market gives us an opportunity, we will definitely be able to leap forward"

  The Spring Festival is approaching, and the population flow based on the demand for leisure vacations and returning home to visit relatives is accelerating the recovery of the wine and tourism industry.

According to data from Meituan, bookings for accommodation, scenic spots, transportation and other travel orders during the Spring Festival are ushering in peak bookings. As of January 11, the week-on-week increase of more than 350%.

The simultaneous increase in the booking cycle, travel time, and hotel stay time has become a new feature of this Spring Festival travel.

  Tongcheng Travel pointed out that in 2022, although the recovery process is frequently disturbed by the epidemic, the innovation and development of the domestic accommodation industry has never stopped, and the accommodation industry will still be the "brightest jewel in the crown" of the travel industry.

In 2022, driven by local large-scale leisure consumption, the innovation of "accommodation + X" is in the ascendant, and the marketing of "hotel + X + Y" packages is booming. The benign interaction between new consumption and new supply will become the driving force for innovation in the accommodation industry New impetus for development.

  The emerging new accommodation formats in the interaction between supply and demand are the key force to promote the reform of the industry's supply side and an important driving force for new consumption.

Tongcheng Research Institute believes that with the gradual improvement of the domestic epidemic situation and the comprehensive optimization and adjustment of prevention and control policies, the domestic tourism travel industry will maintain a stable recovery in 2023, which will create good external conditions for the recovery of the accommodation industry.

As the macroeconomic situation continues to improve, it is expected that domestic business travel will enter the recovery zone in 2023, and the accelerated recovery of demand for international business travel and conferences and exhibitions will also bring new boosts to the recovery of the domestic accommodation industry.

  According to data from Jin Jiang Hotel (China), as people's enthusiasm for travel gradually increases, the tourism industry chain has begun to recover continuously.

Since the New Year’s Day holiday, the occupancy rate of hotels across the country has steadily increased, ushering in a good start to the new year in 2023: the occupancy rate in the first week of January increased by 9% month-on-month, and the full-room hotel on January 10 was more than three times that of the same period in 2021, showing a strong recovery momentum .

It is expected that during the Spring Festival holiday, with the arrival of a new round of tourist peaks, the occupancy rate of hotels across the country will further increase.

  Kang Wei, vice president of Atour Group, said that with the liberalization of the epidemic policy, the demand for travel has been greatly released.

After the Spring Festival, overall business travel demand will recover excessively, so it is optimistic on a large level.

  According to data from Huazhu Group, as of January 18, hotel booking data in various places has increased significantly, especially in popular tourist destinations.

Taking the 7-day Spring Festival holiday as an example, the reservation rate of Hainan Wanning exceeds 80%, that of Xishuangbanna exceeds 75%, that of Pu’er and Beihai both exceed 60%, and that of popular business districts such as Shamian and Shangxiajiu in Guangzhou exceed 80%. 73%, Tiananmen Square in Beijing and Zhongyang Street in Harbin also exceeded 65%, and it is expected to continue to grow.

  Among them, resort hotels are very popular. The newly opened Lishui Yun and Huajianbao of the Huajiantang brand have launched a 3-day, 2-night boutique travel photography group activity from the second to the fourth day of the new year. All six are fully booked.

  Sun Jian, general manager of BTG Homeinns Hotel Group, said: "In 2023, there will be a vast world and great achievements. Whether it is visiting relatives and returning home, leisure travel or business trips, judging from the current booking situation during the Spring Festival, what we see is social, market, Consumers are gradually recovering. At present, the booking situation of many hotels under the group has surpassed that of the same period in 2019. We have enough reasons to believe that we will see more social changes in 2023, and I also believe that this change will give China's economy, especially the hotel tourism industry, has brought vitality. A thriving market is coming to us, and BTG Home Inns is fully prepared. As long as the market gives us an opportunity, we will definitely be able to leap forward."