With the arrival of the Lunar New Year, the situation of the Spring Festival stalls has become more and more anxious.

According to the data of Beacon Professional Edition, at 9:25 on January 21, 2023, the total box office of new films during the Spring Festival (including spot screenings and pre-sales) exceeded 600 million yuan.

　　There is less than a day before the official release. The top three pre-sale films are "Manjianghong", "The Wandering Earth 2" and "No Name", with 163 million, 158 million and 112 million respectively.

　　The basic pattern of the first day of the new year has been set.

"Wandering Earth 2", "Man Jianghong" and "Exchanging Life" are temporarily among the top three, accounting for 27%, 25.6% and 17.5% respectively.

Compared with last year's "Changjin Lake: Water Gate Bridge" which was dominated by one single film, this year's films strive to be the best, which will have a pulling effect on the market.

　　Practitioners in the film industry are looking forward to the performance of this year's Spring Festival, and believe that it may surpass last year's total box office of 6 billion.

The main basis for the judgment is that the attendance rate is no longer limited, the overall quality of the film is at a relatively high level in recent years, and the genre is rich, including comedy, science fiction, spy war, sports, suspense, fantasy, etc., which can provide audiences with multiple choices.

The pre-sale performance is calm, and the special effects hall is expensive

　　Zhang Jie, the manager of a movie theater located in a bustling business district in Shanghai, told China Business News that just last week, the movie theater almost ran out of movies: "After the release of "Avatar 2", I will be full. For two or three weeks, until last week there were no films available in the general hall in the afternoon.” Last year, the overall film shortage in the film market had a great impact on theater operations, and this phenomenon will be greatly alleviated with the arrival of the Spring Festival. , The theater gradually recovered its vitality.

　　"For the film that will be released at the end of February, the promotional materials have already been placed in theaters. Many people are familiar with such a large crowd during the Spring Festival." Zhang Jie believes that there is a high probability that the box office of this year's Spring Festival will surpass last year. Whether there will be a significant increase? Need to wait and see: "It depends on the word-of-mouth. Good word-of-mouth can go a long way. Last year, the word-of-mouth of a few films was relatively mediocre, and they began to fall off a cliff in the fourth day of the new year. Ticket prices are still very expensive, and no one will watch them all at once. If any film this year The word-of-mouth has exploded, and everyone will watch two more movies." In addition, the audience's movie-watching mentality needs to be evaluated, and Zhang Jie noticed that there are still many people who don't even know that the theater is open for business, and they have lost the reason to go to the theater to watch movies. Habit.

　　This year's spring pre-sale box office has not yet matched the level of the same period last year, and the performance is relatively "calm".

Liancheng Yijian, a film distribution practitioner, analyzed to China Business News that on the one hand, the pre-sale started late this year, and on the other hand, due to the repeated epidemics in the past year, the audience's decision-making to watch movies lagged behind: "They will still watch it, but they won't. Buy it many days in advance, maybe one or two days in advance, or even decide which show to watch on the same day."

　　According to the data of Beacon Professional Edition, as of now, the average ticket price for the Spring Festival stalls is 54.8 yuan, a slight decrease compared with the same period last year.

However, this number will continue to fluctuate when the schedule officially opens.

Liancheng Yijian observed that this year’s Spring Festival special effects hall tickets are more expensive than in previous years, and the number of ordinary halls has dropped: “From the actual experience of audiences buying tickets, they don’t think it’s much cheaper, and everyone will still focus on the golden shows. Watch the film in the special effects hall."

　　Take the pricing of "The Wandering Earth 2" on the New Year's Day of several popular IMAX theaters in Shanghai as an example. The price of the IMAX hall of Heping Movie Metropolis is between 125 yuan and 145 yuan, and the price of other ordinary halls is between 65 and 85 yuan.

　　It is worth mentioning that the average length of the 7 films in the Spring Festival this year exceeds 130 minutes, which is the longest in history.

"The Wandering Earth 2" has a length of 173 minutes, and "Man Jianghong" has 159 minutes.

The length of the film will affect the screening turnover rate of theaters. Chen Jin, a data analyst of Beacon Professional Edition, predicts that the total number of screenings on the first day of the Lunar New Year will be reduced from 565,000 last year to about 480,000.

　　Zhang Jie told China Business News that the IMAX hall of the theater she was in was tilted towards "Wandering Earth 2" on the first day of the Lunar New Year, and the ordinary hall "Manjianghong" accounted for the highest proportion: "This is only the first and second day of the new year, and there is no lineup for the third day of the new year." Come out. It will definitely be adjusted according to the attendance rate on the first day. "The Wandering Earth 2" has the longest film length, so although the first day has the most films, if the performance is not good, others will be added."

　　"No Name" performed strongly in the pre-sale stage, and there are fans behind it. Zhang Jie said that fans will buy a corner or two of the shows that have already been opened in theaters: "In this way, this show will be locked, and there will be no reason for it. No one watches the film, and only one opening will be skipped automatically. In order to avoid this situation, they bought corner positions and reserved good positions for ordinary audiences.” The performance of the film after its release depends on whether it can attract General audience admission.

7 films, who will have the last laugh?

　　Judging from the current pre-sale and film schedule, "The Wandering Earth 2" and "Man Jianghong" will play a supporting role in the schedule, and the word-of-mouth release of the two films is relatively positive.

"The passerby board of "The Wandering Earth 2" and its occupation of the special effects hall are unshakable, but "Man Jianghong" may pose a huge threat to the championship position of "The Wandering Earth 2." Liancheng Yijian said.

　　In order to gain a foothold in the Spring Festival, the two films "Deep Sea" and "Chinese Ping Pong: The Jedi Counterattack" that performed poorly during the pre-sale period will start nationwide advanced screenings on January 19 and 20, respectively.

At present, the pre-sale box office of the two is 40.97 million and 12.54 million respectively.

　　Usually, Spring Festival films are rarely screened on a large scale. This is a very risky publicity strategy that relies heavily on the quality of the film itself.

Generally, only filmmakers who have high confidence in the word-of-mouth of the film will order screenings. Through the early release of word-of-mouth, the influence of the film will be spread to achieve a "counterattack" in film scheduling.

If there are more negative reviews after screening, it will drag the film into a more dangerous situation.

　　In an IMAX cinema in a commercial complex in Changning District, Shanghai, the reporter noticed that the screening of "Deep Sea" with a ticket price of 100 yuan on the evening of January 19 was almost full.

During the film screening, almost no one left early, and at the end stage, there was a small amount of weeping in the theater.

On social platforms, the word-of-mouth of "Deep Sea" has become polarized.

Some viewers thought it was an unprecedented milestone with stunning visual effects, while some viewers said that the plot was weak and the viewing process felt like sitting on pins and needles.

　　In Liancheng Yijian's view, word-of-mouth "tears" during the pre-sale period will have an impact on the film's subsequent performance: "Although it will attract some people's curiosity, for the market, the lack of confidence may cause fluctuations in the film schedule. The studio may not give "Deep Sea" the best show and the largest hall. Because it is the only 3D movie in the Spring Festival file, it relies on the special effects hall, and the special effects hall will probably be closed three days before the Spring Festival file. For "The Wandering Earth 2" and "Man Jianghong", I will not arrange a film for it, which will have a negative impact on the subsequent performance of the film."

　　"Chinese Ping Pong: The Jedi Counterattack" has undergone temporary adjustments, from the first day of the Lunar New Year to the third day of the Lunar New Year. Compared with other Spring Festival films, the pre-sale starts later and the volume is weaker.

The reporter observed in a chain theater chain of a commercial complex in Minhang District that the attendance rate of the golden show on the evening of January 20 was only about 10%.

However, after the film was screened, the word-of-mouth performance on social networks was relatively positive, and it was generally believed that it "exceeded expectations".

The overall tone of the film is more in line with the movie-watching atmosphere of the Spring Festival, and the popular themes are more suitable for family viewing. It is expected to perform well in the second half of the Spring Festival.

　　The Spring Festival stalls are full of gunpowder, and many new films are also being finalized one after another.

The long-lost Marvel superhero movie "Black Panther 2" and "Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantum Frenzy", directed by Weng Ziguang, starring Aaron Kwok and Tony Leung, and more than ten films including "The Wind Rises" will be released in February. Cosmic Exploration Editorial Department" will be released in April, "The King of the Sky" and "Prosecutorial Storm" will be locked in May 1st, and many other heavyweight films are expected to be released this year.

The film market in 2023 will usher in new vitality.

　　(At the request of the interviewee, Zhang Jie is a pseudonym in the article)