Our reporter Du Yumeng

　　On January 18, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, the Price Supervision and Competition Bureau of the State Administration for Market Regulation, and the Futures Department of the China Securities Regulatory Commission organized some iron ore trading companies and futures companies to hold a meeting to analyze the iron ore market and price situation. Learn more about the participation of relevant companies in iron ore spot and futures transactions, remind and warn relevant companies to operate in accordance with laws and regulations, not to fabricate and release false information, not to selectively quote data and information, deliberately exaggerate the atmosphere of price increases, and not to fabricate and spread price increase information, No price gouging, no excessive speculation.

　　The National Development and Reform Commission, the State Administration for Market Regulation, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission will continue to closely monitor market trends, further study and adopt measures to increase supervision of the spot and futures markets, severely crack down on illegal activities such as excessive speculation, and effectively maintain the normal order of the market.

　　A reporter from "Securities Daily" sorted out and found that in order to curb excessive speculation in iron ore, this is the third time since the beginning of the year that the National Development and Reform Commission has spoken out against the iron ore market.

　　The previous two were from the two news released by the National Development and Reform Commission on January 6 and January 15 respectively.

In the former, in response to the recent rapid rise in iron ore prices, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized a meeting to study and strengthen the supervision of iron ore prices.

The latter is for some iron ore information companies reprinting false old news and confusing the public. The Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission immediately interviewed relevant information companies and reminded them to carefully verify and be accurate before releasing market and price information. No mistake, no fabricating and publishing false information, no fabricating and disseminating price increase information, no price gouging.

　　Behind the three "strikes" by the regulatory authorities has a lot to do with the "crazy" performance of iron ore spot and futures prices.

According to the monitoring data of Lange Iron and Steel Network, on January 18, Lange Iron and Steel's national comprehensive steel price was 4,419 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.6% from the low point in early November last year; The powder price was 845 yuan/ton, up 32% from the low point in November last year.

　　From the perspective of futures prices, as of the close on January 18, the main iron ore futures contract closed at 841.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.9%, and a cumulative increase of about 40.37% from the low price of 599.5 yuan/ton in early November last year.

　　Wang Guoqing, director of the Lange Iron and Steel Research Center, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily that the recent increase in iron ore prices is mainly due to strong expectations for domestic stable growth, which has driven up the prices of black commodities.

In addition, as the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for inventory replenishment of steel enterprises will also be relatively concentrated in the short term.

However, judging from the current price increase, the increase in iron ore prices has far exceeded that of steel prices, which will seriously erode the profit margin of the steel industry.

　　According to Zhang Kaidong, a black industry researcher at Shanghai Iron and Steel Federation, in the past two weeks, the relevant departments and bureaus of the National Development and Reform Commission have held consecutive meetings to remind potential imported inflation risks, and pay special attention to the rapid rise in iron ore prices, which has sounded the alarm for the market. , It is also in line with the industry's prediction of the market trend after the Spring Festival, that is, black commodities continue to remain high and volatile before and after the Spring Festival, and the recovery of demand after the festival may drive steel production to start to pick up, which in turn will drive a round of cost-driven price increases.

　　Zhang Kaidong believes that what needs to be reminded is that the demand recovery of the steel industry in the first quarter of 2023 is still based on the demand pattern of "strong infrastructure, weak real estate".

If steel mills increase their efforts to resume production due to improved profits after the festival, the market demand at the end of the first quarter will be difficult to absorb the new production and accumulated inventory, and it is expected that steel and raw material prices will face downward adjustment risks by then.

　　If the elongated dimension makes a judgment on the price trend of iron ore for the whole year of 2023, Liang Haikuan, an analyst at Founder Mid-term Futures Research Institute, predicts that the price trend of iron ore for the whole year may be high before and then low, and the high point of the year is expected to appear in the second quarter.

　　From the perspective of the supply side, according to the tracking data of Lange Iron and Steel Network, the incremental supply of BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto in 2023 will be about 3 million tons and 6 million tons respectively, the incremental supply of FMG will be about 5 million tons, and the incremental supply of Vale will be about 5 million tons. Around 10 million tons.

On the whole, it is estimated that the iron ore supply of the four major mines will increase by about 25 million tons in 2023, an increase of about 2% year-on-year.

In addition, the reduction of India's iron ore export tariffs will also increase the supply of iron ore resources globally and in China; while the domestic acceleration of the "Cornerstone Plan" and the increase in the production of domestic iron ore fine powder will also increase the overall supply of iron ore.

　　On the demand side, Wang Guoqing believes that the release of China's steel production in 2023 will still decline slightly. At the same time, the restoration of the scrap steel recycling system will also increase the proportion of scrap steel application, which will drive the demand for iron ore to continue to fall.

Therefore, under the background of loose supply and demand, it is expected that the price level of iron ore will decline to a certain extent in 2023.

(Securities Daily)