At the end of 2022, India became the most populous country in the world, ahead of China.

This conclusion follows from the materials of the American organization World Population Review (WPR) and the State Statistical Office of the PRC.

According to WPR analysts, last year the Indian population increased by more than 9.6 million people and reached approximately 1.417 billion. At the same time, according to the Chinese State Statistics Service, the number of citizens living in China, on the contrary, decreased by 850 thousand people - to 1.412 billion (excluding residents of Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan).

According to the forecast of American experts with reference to UN data, in the foreseeable future, the number of people in China will continue to gradually decline, while in India the figure will steadily increase.

As a result, by 2050, the population of China may decrease to 1.313 billion people, and in the neighboring South Asian republic, the value will exceed 1.67 billion.

“India is now going through the same period of development as China has been for decades.

On the one hand, the standard of living and the quality of medical care are improving, which leads to an increase in the birth rate.

On the other hand, family traditions are very strong in India, when a large number of children is considered a blessing, ”Alexey Maslov, director of the Institute of Asian and African Countries at Moscow State University, explained to RT.

In China, he said, the situation is reversed.

Thus, the share of the urban population in China has increased significantly over the past years and today is about 65%.

As a result, when both parents work, they have less time to raise a child, and spending on kindergarten or a nanny only burdens the family budget.

In addition, more and more young Chinese are choosing a career and want to live for themselves, Maslov added.

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In part, the demographic situation observed today in both states is also connected with certain historical prerequisites.

This point of view in an interview with RT was expressed by an expert on the stock market "BCS World of Investments" Valery Yemelyanov.

As the specialist said, for thousands of years the regions remained the most densely populated due to their natural features and rice culture.

Thus, the Indian subcontinent and the valleys of the Yellow River and the Yangtze have always been able to feed approximately the same large number of people, the analyst noted.

“The balance was upset in the 20th century, when the authorities of the two countries began to artificially limit population growth.

India pursued a policy of "two of us - two of us", and China - "one family - one child."

The first initiative did not work out in the end, partly due to inconsistency and constant turnover of power.

In turn, the actions of the PRC brought a greater effect, since the leadership in the person of the Communist Party strictly held the line on limiting the birth rate for several decades in a row, ”added Yemelyanov.

As a result of tough measures, the population growth rate in China significantly slowed down by the end of the 20th century, and already in 2015, the PRC leadership allowed families to have two children.

Moreover, in 2021, the authorities of the Asian republic decided to further weaken birth control and allowed parents to have three children.

However, according to experts, due to the achieved level of socio-economic development, China is unlikely to be able to seriously increase the birth rate again.

According to Valery Yemelyanov, thanks to the forced industrialization and the previous restrictions on the number of children, China has made the so-called third demographic transition.

India, meanwhile, is only halfway there, the analyst added.

“China is a typical western-style clean-up country where dense urban populations cannot afford many children due to expensive real estate, lack of infrastructure and high female employment.

India, on the other hand, is still largely an agrarian state with a patriarchal structure, and large families remain there.

However, this country is now experiencing the last boom in population growth before the shutdown.

In the future, the same scenario awaits her as the PRC, only more natural and later, ”said the interlocutor of RT.

Path to the pedestal

Notably, India remains one of the fastest growing economies in the world.

According to the International Monetary Fund, in 2022 the size of its gross domestic product increased by 6.8%, while the world average growth was 3.2%, in developed countries - about 2.4%, in developing countries - 3. 7%, and in China - about 3%.

According to the World Bank experts, since the beginning of the 21st century, the volume of Indian GDP has grown almost seven times.

As of 2021, its value was $3.18 trillion, while the republic at that time ranked fifth in the list of states in terms of the real level of gross domestic product.

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According to the forecast of the American company S&P Global, in the next few years, India's GDP will add an average of 6.3% annually.

As a result, by 2030 the country may overtake Japan and Germany, becoming the third largest economy in the world.

In many ways, such dynamics will be due precisely to the demographic factor, experts interviewed by RT are sure.

“The number in India is growing mainly due to the young population.

Therefore, the republic will receive many orders, and international companies will continue to massively transfer their production here.

At the same time, a number of technological startups are opening here.

All this, of course, is positive for the local economy,” said Alexey Maslov.

The steady growth of the Indian economy may have a positive impact on Russia, the expert believes.

According to the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation, in 2022 the mutual trade between the two countries has grown to a record $30 billion. India, along with China, is now actively purchasing energy resources from Moscow, so bilateral trade will continue to grow in the foreseeable future, Maslov believes.

“We are building good and even relations in the field of foreign economic activity.

The growth of the Indian economy will also mean an increase in the use of energy resources, and Russia is one of the key suppliers of raw materials to the country,” the specialist concluded.