(Economic Observer) Will the price of new houses in the first-tier cities take the lead in stabilizing the property market?
China News Agency, Beijing, January 16th: Will the "Xiaoyangchun" of the first-tier cities take the lead in stabilizing the property market?
China News Agency reporter Pang Wuji
As an important "weather vane" of China's property market, new housing prices in first-tier cities will show signs of stabilizing at the end of 2022.
Is the real estate market entering a channel of stabilization and recovery?
Will this year's property market "Xiaoyangchun" come ahead of schedule?
Home prices fell for 16 consecutive months month-on-month
Since September 2021, China's real estate market has continued to bottom out, and housing prices for new and second-hand houses have continued to fall.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on January 16, in December 2022, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities in China, the sales prices of newly-built commercial housing and second-hand housing sales prices will increase by 4 and 1 respectively compared with the previous month. ; Housing prices in most cities fell month-on-month.
In that month, the price index of new commercial housing in 70 cities in China fell by an average of 0.2% month-on-month and 2.3% year-on-year; the price index of second-hand housing fell by an average of 0.4% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year.
Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Institute of Urban Planning, pointed out that housing prices for new and second-hand housing have fallen for 16 consecutive months month-on-month and have been adjusted year-on-year for nearly a year, which has brought about a reversal in real estate market expectations.
More people are expecting house prices to fall, leading to continued weakness in the market.
In December 2022, housing prices in most cities will fall, especially in the second-hand housing market.
The number of cities with falling second-hand housing prices rose to 63, and the year-on-year decline is still expanding, showing that both supply and demand are weak.
Li Yujia believes that stabilizing housing prices has become an important part of stabilizing expectations, stabilizing confidence, and bailing out the supply side this year.
First-tier cities took the lead in stabilizing
It is worth noting that in December 2022, the prices of new houses in first-tier cities, which are the "leaders" of the property market, have taken the lead in stopping the decline and stabilizing.
According to official data, in December 2022, the sales price of newly built commercial housing in first-tier cities turned from a 0.2% decrease in the previous month to remain flat.
Among them, the prices of new houses in Beijing and Shanghai rose by 0.2% and 0.4% month-on-month, while those in Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell by 0.4% and 0.3% month-on-month.
Yan Yuejin, research director of Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, said that the price of new houses in first-tier cities has shown signs of stopping after falling for three consecutive months.
In the past few years, when the real estate market entered an upward cycle, it was often started by the heating up of real estate in first-tier cities.
Yan Yuejin said that housing prices in such cities have stopped falling, which will help restore market expectations.
The Zhuge Housing Data Research Center also believes that the real estate market in first-tier cities will recover first in 2023, especially Beijing and Shanghai.
The agency believes that first-tier cities will take the lead in getting out of the down cycle and entering the up cycle with rich industrial support.
Will the "Xiaoyangchun" in the property market advance?
In the past, from March to April every year, the real estate market would usher in a wave of "Xiaoyangchun" market.
Will the "Xiaoyangchun" market in the property market this year be brought forward to the Spring Festival?
According to the survey, the "returning to the hometown" that was popularized by returning to the hometown during the Spring Festival in the past will not be as popular as before in the Spring Festival of 2023.
According to a research report recently released by 58.com and Anjuke, during the Spring Festival in 2023, more than 80% of the intended buyers plan to buy houses in and around the city where they work.
The proportion of people who want to go back to their hometown to buy a house is only 17.1%, which is significantly lower than the 68.6% during the Spring Festival in 2020.
As the main force of returning home buyers, it may be difficult for third- and fourth-tier cities to see a significant increase in the property market during the Spring Festival.
This year's property market "Little Spring" is expected to start in first- and second-tier cities, and the overall property market may have to wait until the second quarter to heat up.
At present, some positive factors have emerged.
According to the data released by the Shell Research Institute, the leading indicators of the second-hand housing market in early January this year showed a significant rebound.
The volume and transaction volume, which represent demand, have rebounded significantly.
From the perspective of transaction volume, the average daily transaction volume of 50 key cities in the first half of January increased by 22% compared with December; from the perspective of transaction volume, the average daily transaction volume of second-hand housing in 50 cities in the first half of January increased by 39% compared with December last year.
The average daily turnover in Langfang, Beijing and other places doubled compared with December.
The Shell Research Institute predicts that the improved demand suppressed during the epidemic will be released at a faster pace, and the real estate market in core cities in the first quarter of 2023 is expected to usher in a good start.
Zhang Bo, director of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, believes that the bottom of the market has gradually become clear, and it is expected that housing prices will stabilize and the number of rising cities will increase significantly in the second quarter of this year.
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