Employment increases by 12,640 people in Spain in the worst month of December since 2012
Ministry of Social Security
has advanced this Tuesday that
the start of the year has been positive
in terms of
creation , since in the thirty days that go from December 15 to January 15 the country has been able to create
25,294 jobs of work without taking into account the jobs that are traditionally created and destroyed in these months
due to the economic cycle.
In other words, if all the months of the year were exactly the same in terms of employment and there were no peaks and valleys as a result of the activity (for example, more hiring in the hotel industry during the holiday season or more incorporations in commerce due to sales), This
would allow us to know
which months are truly good
for the labor market -and not because of those circumstances- and which are not and, in this case,
the last thirty days would have been
, since the country would have managed to create 25,000 jobs.
Bearing in mind that the year is made up of 365 days, if that number of jobs have been created in 30 days, this would indicate that
the year could close with around 300,000 more affiliates
if this momentum in the labor market is maintained, a very positive figure, which allows us to deduce that the beginning of the year has been good for the labor market.
It is to be expected, however, that this momentum will relax as the year progresses and that
2023 will be weaker than 2022 in employment
, as it will be in GDP growth.
There is no established level
There is no established level
of job creation in seasonally adjusted terms
to know which months are good and which are bad,
depends on how the country's economy is evolving
In a time of economic slowdown, it could be said that simply creating jobs in seasonally adjusted terms would already be a positive fact, although it must be contextualized with the evolution of GDP.
The increase registered in this period (December 15 to January 15) is higher
than the average observed in December of the previous two fortnights (November 15 to December 15), in which there was an increase of 7,357 affiliates", explains the Ministry of Social Security in a note released this Tuesday, in which it details that they have approved a
change in methodology
to find out how the labor market is evolving.
For a year and a half and until November 2022, the Ministry gave a
press conference in the middle of the month
in which it reported on how
affiliation had behaved in the first fifteen days
of the month according to its seasonally adjusted model and, From that data,
he inferred a forecast on how the month would close
José Luis Escrivá
presented this data in seasonally adjusted terms but made the translation to the original series, so that an estimate of real job creation could be known that would be published at the end of the month.
Now, however, that method has changed.
The Ministry's statistical team has designed
that allow it to know more accurately
the trend followed by the labor market,
eliminating the effect of seasonality and the calendar (the aforementioned peaks and valleys), and have opted to
abandon the forecasts
and only communicate the true data.
Hence, in the middle of the month, they will report on the evolution of employment in the previous thirty calendar days.
Another novelty of the method, in addition to the inclusion of these factors, is that
the seasonality pattern
that employment has followed
in the last three years
(2020, 2021 and 2022) is now taken into account, whose behavior had not been taken into account.
taken into account up to now due to the exceptional situation derived from the pandemic in the first two cases and in 2022 due to being incomplete to date.
The new method and the data known today allow us to observe that while
the first half of 2022 was very strong
in terms of job creation, the summer was weaker and that even, had it not been for the activity of those months, jobs would have been lost. in the country.
Since September, employment has recovered, albeit slightly, so that
in the second half of the year job creation was weaker,
20,000 new jobs each month.
This means that while
from January to June some 380,000 jobs were created
of the jobs created in the year), the second half of the year ended with the net incorporation of some
of the total jobs created in 2022).
200,000 fewer jobs at the end of the month
Given the slowdown that the labor market experienced in the second part of the year and also in December, it was important to see how 2023 started and, in this sense,
the Ministry is calm
because January has started with a rebound in job creation and generation of new positions, beyond those that are traditionally created in this month.
We will have to wait until the first days of February to find out
how much employment has been created in January
in original terms, that is, the real number of the difference between registrations and cancellations to Social Security.
the data that has traditionally been used
to report on how the labor market is evolving and, since a January cannot be compared with an April, the comparison with previous Januarys has always been used to find out how good the January has been. current year.
According to these data,
has always been a month of job destruction and, between 2010 and 2020 (the last January before the pandemic)
the average loss of jobs has been 218,000 jobs
In 2021, 218,953 were destroyed and in 2022, 197,759, with which this pattern has been maintained, hence it is to be expected that the loss of jobs in the original series
this month will be around the same amount.
If that happens and January closes with around 200,000 fewer jobs,
it will not be a negative fact, since it is something that happens every year
-whether the economy grows or not, due to the seasonal nature of the labor market- and if, in addition , in seasonally adjusted terms the month closes with the creation of jobs, it can be deduced that the start of the year has been good.
The original series - which will include this loss of positions -
is rejected outright by Escrivá,
who defends that the
that occur each year
in consumption and behavior patterns
prevent comparisons of such long periods.
For example, it is possible that now in November business contracts will increase due to the increase in sales that occurs on Black Friday, a phenomenon that did not exist a few years ago, which makes it meaningless, in his opinion, to compare the employment in a November today with that of a November many years ago when this phenomenon did not yet exist.
According to the criteria of The Trust Project
Jose Luis Escriva