Will the world economy be fine in 2023?

　　(Financial World) Will the world economy be good in 2023?

　　China News Agency, Beijing, January 16 (Reporter Li Xiaoyu) Will the global economy be good in 2023?

Not sure at the moment.

However, a significant improvement in the Chinese economy will be a high probability event.

　　The latest report of the World Bank predicts that the global economic growth rate in 2023 will only be 1.7%, which is significantly lower than the previous growth rate forecast of 3%. speed.

In addition, the global economy will average less than 2% growth from 2020 to 2024, the slowest five-year growth rate since 1960.

　　Any new adverse scenario, such as higher-than-expected inflation, sudden interest rate hikes to curb inflation, a resurgence of the new crown epidemic or escalating geopolitical tensions, could push the global economy into recession, the World Bank said.

　　However, there are also international organizations that are optimistic about the economic outlook.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) believes that while the world economy will grow slower this year compared with 2022, a recession should be avoided.

Previously, the IMF predicted that the world economy would grow by 2.7% in 2023.

　　In the view of some Chinese scholars, the more likely scenario for the global economy this year is neither a significant recession nor a steady growth, but a mild recession.

　　Dong Yan, a researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that considering a series of external shocks such as geopolitical conflicts, uncertainties in the epidemic, and the spillover effects of the radical withdrawal of the economic stimulus policies of major economies such as the United States, it is still difficult to make a short-term recovery. In 2023, the global economy is expected to continue the slowdown trend in 2022, showing a mild recession, with fluctuations in the first half of the year, and it is expected to improve in the second half of the year.

　　According to the Institute's calculations, the world economic growth rate will be around 2.5% in 2023, and the global economy is expected to return to a low-speed growth track after 2024.

　　Although there are different opinions on the judgment of the direction of the world economy, there seems to be a consensus among all parties, that is, the Asian economy will be the strongest this year, and China's economy in particular will regain its strong growth.

　　Recently, China's epidemic prevention and control policies have been continuously adjusted and optimized, and various localities have also intensively introduced various policies and measures to promote economic recovery, including accelerating the layout of major projects, expanding effective investment, focusing on automobiles, housing, home appliances and other fields to stimulate consumption, etc., which boosted market sentiment. Confidence in China's economic prospects this year.

　　According to OECD estimates, major emerging market economies in Asia will contribute about 75% of global GDP growth in 2023.

　　Morgan Stanley released a report a few days ago and believes that in 2023, the overall momentum of global economic growth will be insufficient, but the Asian economy is the most optimistic and will become the main driving force of global economic growth, among which China and India will lead the development of Asia.

Specifically, thanks to the recovery of the consumer market, China's economy is expected to grow by 5% in 2023; India's economy is expected to grow by 6.2%.

　　Georgieva, managing director of the IMF, also said that China's adjustment of policies in response to the new crown virus may lead to strong economic growth in China and allow China to become the driving force of global economic growth again.

　　According to official statistics, in the first 11 months of 2022, China's actual use of foreign capital grew by 9.9% year-on-year.

In an interview with a reporter from China News Agency, Zhao Ping, deputy director of the Research Institute of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, said that at a time when the overall world economy is in a downturn, the continued recovery of the Chinese economy will create more investment opportunities and further enhance China's attractiveness to global investors. At the same time, it will also inject new impetus into the recovery of the world economy, continue to provide new opportunities for the world with China's development, and achieve a win-win situation.

(Finish)