China News Service, January 16th (China News Finance reporter Zuo Yukun) On the 16th, the National Bureau of Statistics released the sales price changes of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in December 2022. The number of cities with declining sales prices has increased, and the sales prices of commercial housing in various cities have remained flat or decreased month-on-month.

　　The property market has come to an end in 2022, and industry analysts believe that stabilizing housing prices in 2023 is still an important task.

Data map: There are many buildings in the urban area.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Wang Dongming

new house price

　　According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in December 2022, the sales price of new commercial housing in first-tier cities will remain flat from a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%; the sales price of new commercial housing in second-tier cities will decrease by 0.3% month-on-month, and the rate of decline will increase by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; The sales price of new urban commercial housing decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, the same rate of decline as the previous month.

　　"The most obvious change is that the prices of new houses in first-tier cities have stopped falling after falling for three consecutive months. As the most stressful period of the epidemic has passed, the property market in first-tier cities continues to be optimistic, which will also help restore market expectations." Shanghai E-House Yan Yuejin, research director of the Real Estate Research Institute, said.

　　"This shows that since the fourth quarter of 2022, positive policies on both sides of supply and demand have produced certain effects, and first-tier cities have taken the lead in showing a trend of stabilization." Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of Guangdong Provincial Institute of Urban Planning, pointed out that, for example, the supply side has accelerated the "three arrows" and other funds, and promote guaranteed delivery of buildings; the demand side actively reduces mortgage interest rates, encourages housing purchases and improvements, and so on.

　　However, Zhang Bo, director of the 58 Anjuke Research Institute, also pointed out that the month-on-month rise in new house prices in Beijing and Shanghai does not fully represent a correction in market enthusiasm. The changes in the transaction structure on a larger level, and the increase in the proportion of mid-to-high-end transactions are direct factors.

　　On January 5, the People's Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a notice deciding to establish the first dynamic adjustment mechanism for housing loan interest rate policies.

Cities where the sales prices of newly-built commercial housing have declined for three consecutive months month-on-month and year-on-year may maintain, lower or cancel the lower limit of the local first-home mortgage interest rate policy in stages.

　　Based on this, E-House Real Estate Research Institute sorted out the latest list of cities that can be lowered. 35 cities out of 70 cities meet the policy standards: 14 first- and second-tier cities, including Changchun, Shenyang, Taiyuan, Dalian, Harbin, Zhengzhou, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Fuzhou, Nanning, Guiyang, Xiamen, Wuhan, Lanzhou; 21 third-tier cities, including Mudanjiang, Zhanjiang, Luoyang, Yueyang, Beihai, Qinhuangdao, Jilin, Xuzhou, Jinhua, Jining, Changde, Shaoguan, Guilin, Tangshan, Jinzhou, Wenzhou, Yichang, Huizhou, Dandong, Bengbu, Xiangyang.

Sales price index of new commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in December 2022.

Screenshot from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics

Second-hand housing prices

　　According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in December 2022, the sales price of second-hand housing in first-tier cities decreased by 0.5% month-on-month, and the rate of decline increased by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the sales price of second-hand housing in second-tier cities decreased by 0.4%, the same as last month; Residential sales prices fell by 0.4% month-on-month, and the rate of decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

　　Overall, 63 of the 70 cities saw a month-on-month decline in second-hand house prices, an increase of one city from the previous month. Only Ningbo, Chengdu, Kunming, and Changsha saw a slight month-on-month increase.

Yan Yuejin believes that some cities with an advantage in population size perform better overall, but the number of such cities is indeed relatively small at present.

　　Zhang Bo also pointed out that from the perspective of actual transaction volume, these cities have not experienced simultaneous growth, which also shows that the impetus for rising housing prices is still insufficient, and the market is still in the bottoming stage.

　　"2023 is an important stage for the housing price index to strive to build a bottom, stabilize, and recover. All localities must actively implement home purchase policies so that home buyers have confidence in the second-hand housing market." Yan Yuejin said for example that the "transfer with mortgage" implemented in many places Such policies will help reduce the transaction cost of second-hand housing and promote the stability of the second-hand housing market.

Second-hand housing sales price index in 70 large and medium-sized cities in December 2022.

Screenshot from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics

Next trend

　　Recently, the real estate policy has been fully exerted from the supply side and the demand side, especially on the demand side, which has continuously released benefits to protect rigid demand and improve.

Li Yujia pointed out that the purpose is to use active policies to stabilize the demand side, so that housing prices can be stabilized and supply-side problems can be solved.

　　"In general, stabilizing housing prices in 2023 is still an important task, and it has become an important condition for stabilizing expectations and promoting the steady development of the property market." Yan Yuejin said.

　　"The bottom of the market has gradually become clear. It is expected that the stability of housing prices and the obvious increase in the number of cities with rising housing prices will have to wait for the second quarter of this year." Zhang Bo also believes that this year is a good year to improve demand and enter the market.

Not long ago, the "Strategic Planning Outline for Expansion of Domestic Demand (2022-2035)" issued by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council made it clear that housing improvement will be the focus of stimulating domestic demand in the future.

　　"It is expected that the pace of recovery in first- and second-tier hotspot cities will be relatively faster. At present, there are still many tools in the policy toolbox of first- and second-tier hotspot cities that have not been used, especially in terms of down payment and interest rates to improve demand. There is a lot of room for adjustment. Combined With the overall optimization of mortgage interest rates, the overall recovery of the market in the future is still very promising." Zhang Bo said.

　　Li Yujia also believes that active policies may have an effect in the second quarter, that is, the transaction volume in hot cities will start to stabilize and gradually pick up, and will drive the cities around the metropolitan area to pick up in the second half of the year.

(Finish)