On January 15, there was sleet and rain in Shanghai.
At 2 o'clock in the afternoon, in a Tesla center in Shanghai, there were still 7 groups of users coming to see the car in the snow.
"Recently, the number of people visiting the store has increased significantly. If it wasn't snowing today, there might be more people coming to see the car." The salesperson told Yicai Global that unlike traditional supermarkets, this Tesla center is located in a suburban industry. It is located near the park, and its location is closer to a traditional 4S store. Users who come to the store come to see the car instead of "stopping by".
On January 6, Tesla significantly lowered the prices of some products. The starting price of Model 3 was 229,900 yuan, and the starting price of Model Y was 259,900 yuan.
If you go back to the price before the first price cut last year, the starting price of Model 3 has dropped by 50,000 yuan so far, setting a new low in the history of domestic Teslas.
The price reduction has brought immediate results to Tesla's terminal performance. In the past few days, the reporter interviewed Tesla stores in many cities across the country through on-site visits and telephone surveys, and learned that the passenger flow of Tesla stores in second- and third-tier cities is different. The number of orders has increased sharply after Tesla's current round of price cuts, and the number of orders in stores in some cities has increased by 500% from December to December.
Tesla's price-for-volume effect is immediate
Starting from January 1, 2023, the 13-year state subsidy for new energy and new energy will officially end. Car companies including BYD and Volkswagen have raised product prices in response to hedge the rising costs after the withdrawal of the state subsidy. However, these car companies have not completely Pass on the cost increase after the withdrawal of the state subsidy to consumers. Take BYD as an example.
In addition, some car companies have announced that they will not raise prices for the time being, that is, the difference in subsidies will be fully borne by the car companies. For example, Xiaopeng Motors has clearly stated that it will not raise prices.
According to the research report of Xiangcai Securities, at the current stage, the pressure of competition among auto companies in the Chinese market is high, and under the fierce competition, auto companies are cautious about price increases. It is expected that auto companies will bear the impact of subsidy withdrawal to a large extent.
Tesla, on the other hand, has been uncharacteristically when most of its competitors have raised or maintained their prices.
In the past few years, Tesla, which is considered to be priced at cost, has adjusted its price very frequently. When the state subsidy is withdrawn in 2021, Tesla will increase its price in response. In 2022, it will rise first and then fall. Tesla has further lowered product prices, and many products have given "historical lowest prices" since entering China.
Some marketers of car companies believe that although Tesla’s frequent price cuts will get more orders in the short term, it will also hurt the brand premium. In the past few years, Tesla has been descending from the luxury brand market to the mass consumer market. However, this change is not necessarily a bad thing for Tesla.
Sun Shaojun, founder of the national automobile consumer service platform "Car fans", said that in the first weekend after the price adjustment was announced, Tesla stores received an average of 110-130 real orders, and the order volume has increased significantly; About 450%. At the same time, customers mainly come to the store directly, and the number of telephone invitations to the store is relatively small.
This price-for-volume exchange brought immediate results to Tesla, but at the same time it also brought some pressure on BYD and other car companies. After Tesla started to cut prices, a BYD salesperson told reporters that there have been Several subscribers of SEAL and Han unsubscribed and purchased Tesla instead.
The electric vehicle departments of some car companies held meetings overnight to discuss countermeasures.
"I have seen several brands such as Jikrypton, Weilai, and Tesla before. Tesla's interior is too 'simple', and its smart configuration is not as good as that of Chinese brands. The price/performance ratio is a bit low, so I excluded it at the earliest; After that, the cost-effectiveness increased all of a sudden, and now I am a little entangled." In a Tesla store, a customer who was looking at the car told the reporter.
After the price adjustment, both Tesla products have entered the price range of about 250,000 yuan, and they are in direct competition with new energy products of brands such as Xiaopeng and BYD.
The research report of Guotai Junan Securities believes that Tesla’s sharp price cut this time will bring direct pressure on some competing models of new forces, especially since some competing models have raised prices to a certain extent since 2023. Some price measures that rise and fall will be taken.
On January 13, Cyrus AITO Wenjie announced price adjustments for several models, becoming the first new car company to cut prices after Tesla.
Among them, the Wenjie M5 EV has been reduced by 28,800 yuan to 30,000 yuan, and the starting price has been lowered to 259,800 yuan. The Wenjie M7 has been reduced by 30,000 yuan to 289,800 yuan.
For old car owners, Wenjie provides rights and interests with a total value of 33,000 to 35,000 for the first car owner.
However, the vast majority of brands have not yet followed Tesla in lowering prices.
"Tesla's profits are relatively thick, and we have the cost to fight a price war. We don't have the ability." Cui Ye (pseudonym), a manager of a car company, said.
"The cost of new energy vehicles has risen sharply in the past few years. Up to now, the prices of core components such as lithium batteries have not seen a significant reduction. The leading new car manufacturers such as Weilai and Xiaopeng, even Aion from traditional car companies They haven't gotten out of the 'vicious circle' of selling more and losing money." Cui Ye told reporters that Tesla's gross profit margin is the best among car companies. It is difficult for other car companies to fully follow up with Tesla.
Although there is no official price cut like Tesla, some car companies have increased terminal discounts to enhance the competitiveness of their products.
Recently, when a reporter called the store of a new power car company, the sales staff said that some of the hot-selling products are already available for sale, and the specific discounts can be "discussed in detail at the store". The poster in its circle of friends shows that some products of the brand have replacement discounts. +Discounts for show cars can reach up to 39,000 yuan.
"Tesla's price cut in January may also bring about a 'butterfly effect' that will affect the structure of the new energy vehicle market in the next six months." Cui Ye believes that the industry generally estimated that in the first quarter or even the first half of 2023, the new energy vehicle market will Under greater pressure, Tesla cut prices to snap up orders. In the case of weak new energy vehicle consumption expectations in the first half of the year, it further increased the pressure on other car companies.
Emerging car companies are under pressure to reduce costs and increase efficiency
Although Tesla still stated that the core driving reason behind this price cut is still the cost reduction brought about by technology.
However, some industry insiders and some research institutions believe that the reason behind Tesla's price reduction is insufficient order reserves.
The research report of Haitong Securities believes that behind Tesla’s price cut this time is that under the background of high inflation hitting consumer purchasing power, the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes and the global epidemic, Tesla has gradually exposed hidden worries. Quarterly oversupply, the global delivery level has bottomed out.
"If you want to maintain the sales growth, you have to lower the price, or the sales growth rate will slow down. This is a choice." Tesla CEO Elon Musk has recently publicly stated that the global economy will fall into a recession in 2023. recession, when demand for big-ticket items like cars falls.
The industry generally believes that in the first quarter or the first half of this year, the Chinese auto market will also be under greater pressure.
According to the research report of Oriental Fortune Securities, in 2023, vehicle manufacturers will enter the Warring States Period, and disadvantaged companies will be eliminated.
In particular, Tesla’s recent continuous price cuts, combined with the development of the automobile industry, will inevitably lead to fierce price wars among vehicle manufacturers in the next few years. New energy vehicles and fuel vehicles, traditional forces and new forces will all compete for life or death.
"Whether it is the confidence in the supply chain or consumer demand, there must be a recovery process. I think the pressure on both ends of supply and demand will be greater in the first half of 2023, but the pressure on demand will definitely be greater." Director of NIO Chairman and CEO Li Bin said that on the one hand, it is because some users’ car purchase needs are released in advance, and on the other hand, consumer confidence also needs time to recover. In the first half of 2023, the domestic new energy vehicle market will face very great challenges.
The rapid growth of new energy vehicles in the past few years has driven the rapid development of new domestic car companies, and has also given birth to new business models such as direct sales and service-oriented car companies.
Some traditional car companies have also begun to imitate the new models brought by new power car companies.
"To build a supermarket store in a business district in Shanghai, the annual rent and labor costs are about 8 million yuan. If there is no subsidy for the establishment of the store from the OEM, it is basically impossible to make money." A new energy brand supermarket in Shanghai The person in charge of the store told reporters.
In the past two years, new energy vehicles have maintained a compound annual growth rate of nearly 100%, and their market share is close to 30%.
Many executives of car companies said in interviews with reporters that the new energy vehicle market has entered the stage of popularization from the original technology and policy guidance.
Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Passenger Passenger Association, believes that in the future, as new energy vehicles go from high sales to flat sales, the marketing model of new energy vehicles also needs to be explored and changed.
At present, many new car companies such as Weilai, Xiaopeng, Ideal and Leapmotor are adjusting their organizational structure or optimizing their internal processes.
Li Xiang, chairman and CEO of Ideal Auto, stated in an internal letter that organizational upgrading is the most important exam question for a company to enter a larger and more difficult stage. More than 90% of companies that fail are not because of business problems, but because of business problems. The problem is only the appearance, but the essence is that organizational capabilities cannot adapt to scale expansion and industry changes.
Li Bin also stated in an internal letter to all staff recently that he needs to be mentally prepared for the difficulties in 2023 or even longer. He has reached the late stage of the qualifying round and needs better performance to qualify for the final.
He also said that inefficient departments and projects will be optimized.
Recently, Leapmotor announced the integration of more than 20 original departments into twelve first-level organizations.
In addition to adjusting the organizational structure, Xiaopeng Motors also frequently poachs executives from traditional car companies.
After the former Geely executive Yi Han joined Xpeng Motors, it was rumored that Wang Fengying, the former president of Great Wall Motors, would succeed He Xiaopeng as the CEO of Xpeng Motors. Xpeng Motors responded: "Current adjustments are still in progress, and outstanding talents from all walks of life are welcome to join. Xiaopeng, if we have further information, we will share it with you in time. The company will continue to develop under the leadership of He Xiaopeng, and He Xiaopeng will still be the top person in charge of the company."
"For example, our strategic plan in 2021 is to be a company with good profits, but in 2023 we see a change in the market. Smart cars will be like the development of computers and smart phones. In the end, there will only be three to four companies. Home." He Xiaopeng said in an interview with the media recently.