Sino-Singapore Jingwei, January 17 (Wang Yongle) A few days ago, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the December 2022 Consumer Price Index (CPI) for 31 provinces.
Sino-Singapore Jingwei found that in December, the year-on-year increase in CPI in 21 provinces was higher than that of the previous month.
Among them, the highest increase in Chongqing was 2.7%, and the lowest increase was 1.0% in Shaanxi.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics website
CPI increases in 21 regions expanded
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2022, the national CPI will increase by 2.0% compared with the previous year.
In December, the national CPI was flat month-on-month and rose by 1.8% year-on-year.
The year-on-year increase was 0.2 percentage points higher than that in November, and it has been in the "1 era" for two consecutive months.
China-Singapore Jingwei combed and found that the CPI of 31 provinces rose year-on-year in December, and the provinces whose growth rates were higher or lower than the national level were 13 and 14, respectively, and 11 and 15 provinces in November.
In terms of growth rate, the growth rate of 21 provinces such as Hainan was higher than that of November, and only Hainan’s growth rate expanded last month; 3 provinces were the same as November, and only Tibet was the same province last month; the growth rate of 7 provinces was lower than that of November, and last month was 0. The increase in 29 provinces narrowed.
In addition, it is worth noting that the number of provinces in the "2 era" increased by 5 compared with the previous month.
Specifically, 13 provinces, including Chongqing, Xinjiang, Guangdong, Shanghai, Fujian, Tibet, Qinghai, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hainan, Shanxi, and Gansu, have seen growth rates higher than the national level, of which 11 provinces including Chongqing are in the "2 era". Last month, 5 provinces including Guangdong and Shanghai were added; Beijing, Liaoning, Jilin, and Zhejiang rose at the same rate as the national level; Tianjin, Heilongjiang, Guangxi, Sichuan, Yunnan, Ningxia, Hebei, Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Hunan, Anhui, Guizhou, Henan, The increase in 14 provinces including Shaanxi was lower than the national level.
In addition, in terms of the rate of increase or decrease, Hainan continued to rank first, with an increase of 0.9 percentage points, and Xinjiang saw the largest decrease of 0.6 percentage points.
The Northeast Securities macro report pointed out that due to the impact of the epidemic, CPI inflation in December rebounded slightly from the previous month, but the rebound rate was slightly lower than market expectations.
Structurally, vegetable prices and pig prices are hedged, and food is still the main contributor. Oil prices have formed a small drag on CPI, and core CPI has risen slightly from the previous month.
How will CPI go in the future?
Official: Ability to continue to maintain overall price stability
In 2022, domestic prices will remain stable.
For prices in 2023, judging from official and institutional forecasts, the risk of high inflation is not great.
Regarding the price trend in 2023, Wan Jinsong, director of the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said on January 12 that although international commodity prices may fluctuate at high levels and imported inflationary pressures still exist, there is a solid foundation for my country's prices to remain stable.
With continuous bumper harvests in grain production, reasonable and sufficient hog production capacity, sufficient supply of important livelihood commodities, strong basic energy security, and further improvement of the system for ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, we are fully confident and capable of maintaining overall price stability.
Guosheng Securities Chief Economist Xiong Yuan and others pointed out that inflation risks are controllable in 2023, and the CPI center may rise to about 2.1%, with a rhythm of highs and lows. From January to February, it may rise to around 3.0% in stages.
The article lists two major uncertainties at the same time: one is that after the optimization of the epidemic prevention policy, the concentrated release of demand, superimposed on the lagged impact of the loose monetary policy in 2022, the service price has a periodic pulse-like upward risk; the other is geopolitical uncertainty Still strong, the global energy crisis and food crisis still have strong uncertainties, which may increase the pressure of imported inflation in my country.
The report of Ping An Securities predicts that the phased high point of CPI in the first half of 2023 will be in the first quarter, which may reach around 2.5%.
Among the super-seasonal factors, the price of pigs may have the greatest impact, but the increase is relatively controllable. It may still be difficult for the CPI to break through 3.0% in the first half of the year.
Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, believes that consumption recovery may lead to a phased expansion of CPI growth, especially the prices of entertainment tourism, hotels, and air tickets related to service consumption may rise relatively quickly.
It is expected that the center of CPI growth in 2023 will increase, and the cumulative growth rate for the whole year is expected to reach about 2.5%, of which it will operate in a moderate range of 2.0% or slightly higher at the beginning of the year.
"The pig cycle in 2023 will mainly run in the price downward stage. The sharp tightening of monetary authorities in the United States and Europe in the early stage will lead to a rapid cooling of overseas inflation in 2023. These factors do not support a sharp rise in domestic CPI in 2023," Wang Qing said. .
The Northeast Securities macro report predicts that, based on the calculation of the superimposed base, the CPI inflation will show a V-shaped trend throughout the year in 2023. July will usher in the low point of the year, and the trend will rise in the third and fourth quarters.
Two points need to be paid attention to: one is that due to the significant drag on the price of pigs, it is difficult for the CPI in January to rise significantly compared with December 2022, and the impact of the base in February will become the high point of inflation in the first half of the year; the second is that the core CPI will trend upwards, However, it will take time to transform the contradiction between supply and demand. In addition, the M1 money supply will continue to shrink year-on-year in 2022, and the upward rhythm of core CPI will be relatively controllable.
(Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)
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