The 31 provinces have set their GDP growth targets for this year: up to 9.5%, and the major economic provinces plan to do this

　　The Paper reporter Teng Han

　　On January 15, as Beijing, Jiangsu, Jilin, Gansu, and Qinghai's 2023 social and economic development "plans" were announced in their government work reports, so far, 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities, excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) across the country will The annual GDP growth targets have all been announced. At the same time, 24 provinces have announced the actual growth rate of GDP in 2022, and 23 provinces have announced the total GDP in 2022.

　　From the 2023 GDP growth target, the value range of 31 provinces is between 4% and 9.5%. Among them, Hainan Province is the highest (about 9.5%), the lowest is about 4%, and the value of other provinces is mostly concentrated at 5%. to 6.5%, mostly "6%", and 12 provinces set it at 6% or above, around 6%.

　　Compared with the GDP target of the previous year, among the 31 provinces and cities, 21 provinces including Henan Province, Tianjin City, Zhejiang Province, Beijing City, Jiangsu Province, and Guangdong Province have lowered their expected growth rates by 0.5 to 1 percentage point; Six provinces including Jilin Province, Hunan Province, and Jiangxi Province remained unchanged; four provinces including Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and Chongqing City raised their expected growth rates by 0.5 to 1 percentage point, and Xinjiang raised the most by 1 percentage point .

　　The 24 provinces that announced the actual growth rate of GDP in 2022 have all achieved positive growth. Except for Beijing and Hainan, which only pointed out the trend of "positive growth", the remaining 22 provinces and cities have announced specific values, ranging from 2% to 5%. , the highest in Jiangxi Province (estimated at 5%) and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (estimated at about 5%), and the lowest in Chongqing City, Guizhou Province, and Guangdong Province, all of which are expected to be about 2%.

In addition, the actual growth rates of the 22 provinces failed to meet the expected targets set in early 2022.

　　23 provinces have announced the total GDP in 2022. Among them, Guangdong has been ranked first in the country for 34 consecutive years. In 2021, Guangdong will become the first domestic province with a GDP exceeding 12 trillion yuan. However, in 2022, Jiangsu will follow closely behind. After ", GDP is expected to step up to 12 trillion yuan.

Shandong and Zhejiang are ranked "8 trillion" and "7 trillion" respectively, and Henan is expected to break through "6 trillion" for the first time.

In addition, on the "5 trillion" echelon, in addition to the existing Sichuan, Fujian and Hubei have been added, and Hunan is expected to be nearly 5 trillion yuan.

　　The 2022 "answer sheet" of more than 20 provinces: the central and western regions have the highest growth rate, and the "5 trillion" echelon is highly competitive

　　According to statistics from The Paper, 24 and 23 provinces have announced the actual growth rate and total amount of GDP in 2022.

　　The 24 provinces that have announced the actual growth rate of GDP in 2022 have all achieved positive growth. Except for Beijing and Hainan, which only pointed out the trend of "positive growth", the remaining 22 provinces and cities have announced specific values, ranging from 2% to 5%. %, including Jiangxi Province (5%), Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (about 5%), Hubei Province (about 4.7%), Hunan Province (over 4.5%), Shaanxi Province (4.5%), Shanxi Province (4.5%), Gansu Province Province (4.2%), Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (over 4%), Shandong Province (about 4%), Yunnan Province (about 4%), Hebei Province (about 3.8%), Anhui Province (about 3.5%), Henan Province (about 3.5%) ), Zhejiang Province (about 3%), Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region (about 3%), Tibet Autonomous Region (about 3%), Qinghai Province (about 2.5%), Liaoning Province (about 2.3%), Chongqing City (about 2%) , Guizhou Province (about 2%), Guangdong Province (about 2%).

　　It can be seen that among the published data, the six provinces with a real GDP growth rate of more than 4.5% in 2022 are all central and western provinces.

Jiangxi and Ningxia, with the highest growth rates, have developed strongly in recent years.

According to the government work report, Jiangxi's GDP has exceeded 3 trillion yuan in recent years, and its industrial added value has exceeded 1 trillion yuan, ranking 13th in the country. The added value of manufacturing industry accounts for about 33% of GDP, ranking first in the country, and has entered the ranks of emerging industrial provinces. .

In addition, the added value of the digital economy exceeded one trillion yuan, accounting for 35% of GDP.

The press conference (first session) of the Propaganda Department of the Ningxia Party Committee held at the end of last year revealed that in the first three quarters of 2022, the added value of Ningxia's agriculture will increase by 5.3%, ranking first in the country.

From January to November, the added value of industries above designated size in Ningxia increased by 8.0%, ranking fifth in the country; investment in fixed assets increased by 10.3%, ranking third in the country; total import and export volume increased by 39.5%, ranking fourth in the country.

　　Against the background of expanding energy demand and rising energy prices, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Ningxia, three energy-rich provinces, have entered the top ten of the 24 provinces in terms of GDP growth rate.

　　It is worth noting that, compared with the target growth rate in 2022, the actual growth rate of the 24 provinces was lower than expected.

　　Last year, my country's macro economy faced a situation of "triple pressure" superimposed with unexpected shocks. The outside world generally believed that the growth rate was lower than expected. The China Macroeconomic Forum (CMF) predicted that my country's GDP growth in 2022 will reach 3.3%, which is lower than the target set at the beginning of the year. 5.5% growth target.

　　In addition, among the 23 provinces that announced the total GDP in 2022, the eastern provinces are still leading, and Guangdong is the highest (estimated at 12.8 trillion yuan), ranking first in the country for 34 consecutive years. However, in 2022, Jiangsu will "follow" and its GDP is expected to exceed 12 trillion yuan.

Shandong (estimated at 8.7 trillion yuan) and Zhejiang are ranked "8 trillion" and "7 trillion" respectively.

Among the central and western provinces, Henan is expected to exceed "6 trillion yuan" for the first time, and Sichuan is expected to exceed 5.6 trillion yuan.

　　On the "5 trillion" echelon, in addition to the existing Sichuan, Fujian and Hubei have newly joined, both of which are expected to exceed 5 trillion yuan, and Hunan is expected to be nearly 5 trillion yuan. The "5 trillion club" can be described as fiercely competitive.

　　In addition, the two economic centers of Shanghai and Beijing exceeded 4 trillion yuan for two consecutive years.

　　Growth forecast for 2023: "6%" mostly, with a maximum of 9.5%, 21 provinces lowered their targets

　　Judging from the 2023 GDP growth expectations of the 31 provinces, the range of target values ​​is relatively large, from 4% to 9.5%. The highest is Hainan Province (about 9.5%), and the lowest is about 4%. 5% to 6.5%, of which "6%" is the majority, and 12 provinces (Shanxi, Fujian, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Yunnan, Henan, Hebei, Chongqing, Heilongjiang, Guizhou, Sichuan, Jilin) ​​set it at 6% or above, about.

There are 8 provinces with a target growth rate of more than 6%. Among them, Hainan and the Tibet Autonomous Region (about 8%) are relatively high, Jiangxi and Xinjiang are both around 7%, and Ningxia, Hunan, Hubei, and Anhui are all around 6.5%.

　　The target GDP growth rate of Shaanxi and Guangxi is about 5.5%, and that of Shanghai is above 5.5%. In addition, the target growth rate of Shandong, Zhejiang, Qinghai, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Liaoning is above or around 5%.

The target growth rate of Beijing (above 4.5%) and Tianjin is lower than 5%. The reporter noticed that Tianjin's target growth rate of around 4% this year is the lowest in the past five years.

　　Recently, Jia Kang, the founding president of the Huaxia Institute of New Supply Economics and the former director of the Institute of Fiscal Science of the Ministry of Finance, pointed out in an exclusive interview with The Paper that the guiding growth target for 2023 can be set at 6% or more.

Yao Yang, dean of the National School of Development at Peking University, also said recently that 5% is a bottom line for GDP growth in 2023.

　　Compared with last year's actual growth rate and target growth rate, the 24 provinces that have announced the actual growth rate of GDP last year have their target growth rate this year higher than last year's actual growth rate.

However, compared with last year's target growth rate, 21 provinces lowered their target growth rate by 0.5 to 1 percentage point. Among them, 15 provinces (Shaanxi, Shandong, Qinghai, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Shanxi, Fujian) , Ningxia, Hubei, Gansu, Hebei, Anhui, Sichuan, Beijing) down by 0.5 percentage points, Zhejiang, Guangxi, Tianjin, Yunnan, Henan, Guizhou and other six provinces down 1 percentage point; Jiangxi, Inner Mongolia, Hunan, Tibet, Shanghai, 6 provinces and cities including Jilin remained basically unchanged; 4 provinces including Xinjiang, Hainan, Chongqing, and Heilongjiang raised their expected growth rates by 0.5 to 1 percentage point. Xinjiang raised the most by 1 percentage point, and the remaining 3 provinces 0.5 percent.

　　In addition, combing through the key work arrangements for 2023 published by various regions found that investment and consumption have become the key words, which is also in line with the central economic work's "focus on expanding domestic demand", "priority must be given to the recovery and expansion of consumption", "to Through government investment and policy incentives to effectively drive the investment of the whole society" and other requirements are consistent.

Shanghai proposes to strengthen the fundamental role of consumption in economic development.

Prioritize the recovery and expansion of consumption, and deepen the construction of an international consumption center city.

Hebei emphasized that efforts should be made to boost residents' consumption.

Formulate implementation opinions on restoring and expanding consumption.

Increase support for catering, accommodation, retail and other industries.

　　Recently, Xu Qiyuan, deputy director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, shared his views in an exclusive interview with The Paper. He believes that the economic recovery in 2023 will show a pattern of "strong domestic demand and relatively weak external demand": On the one hand, external demand is not optimistic, and the pressure to stabilize foreign trade may rise sharply. On the other hand, the performance of domestic demand in 2023 is worth looking forward to.

　　Regarding whether the expansion of domestic demand should focus on expanding investment or expanding consumption, Xu Qiyuan said that in 2023, more attention should be paid to the role of consumption in stimulating the economy. "In the early stage of economic restart and recovery, it is also a critical period to restore consumer confidence. We must give sufficient setting and strength, and ignite the 'first fire' of market confidence as soon as possible to promote the formation of a virtuous circle."

　　How about the big economic province and how to do it?

　　The six major economic provinces of Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Henan, and Sichuan account for 45% of the country's total economic output. The performance of the six "bravely taking the lead" provinces in 2022 and the layout in 2023 have attracted people's attention.

From the aforementioned data, in terms of actual GDP growth rate in 2022, except for Jiangsu and Sichuan, which have not announced specific values, Shandong is currently expected to have the highest growth rate, while Guangdong is the lowest; in terms of target growth rate in 2023, except for Henan and Sichuan, which are set at 6% or Except around 5%, the targets of the remaining four provinces are all around 5% or above.

　　In addition to the relatively high growth rate, Shandong's economic aggregate will also exceed 8 trillion yuan in 2021. In response to Shandong's achievements in recent years, Shandong Governor Zhou Naixiang said at the opening ceremony of the first meeting of the 14th People's Congress of Shandong Province It is pointed out that in the past five years, Shandong has achieved significant results in accelerating the transformation of old and new kinetic energy.

Unswervingly promote the "three determinations", accelerate the cultivation of the "top ten" advantageous industries, and successfully realize the "breakthrough in five years" in the conversion of old and new kinetic energy. The structure and quality are showing trend and key changes.

　　Behind the slowdown of Guangdong's economic growth, the impact of the decline in foreign trade growth on this large foreign trade province cannot be ignored.

According to public data, starting from 2019, the growth rate of Guangdong's total import and export volume will reach 16.7% in 2021, and both 2019 and 2020 will show negative growth.

　　The industry believes that the situation of sluggish external demand in 2023 is still severe.

In this context, Guangdong proposed "manufacturing as the leader" when deploying key tasks in 2023, emphasizing that the real economy should be the foundation, adhere to the manufacturing industry as the leader, accelerate the construction of a strong manufacturing province and a strong quality province, and set up a higher pillar of the modern industrial system. The measures include improving the quality and expansion of the existing eight trillion-dollar industrial clusters, accelerating the promotion of ultra-high-definition video display, biomedicine and health, and new energy industries to become new trillion-dollar industrial clusters, and accelerating the creation of several 500 billion yuan industrial clusters. Yuan-level emerging industry clusters.

　　However, in terms of total volume, Guangdong still ranks first in the country. In 2021, it will become the first domestic province with a GDP exceeding 12 trillion yuan. The Guangdong government work report in 2023 pointed out that in the past five years, the total amount has exceeded 3 trillion yuan. Yuan-level steps, with an average annual growth rate of 5%.

　　Regarding the target growth rate of 5% in 2023, the Nanfang Daily article ""5% and above" is the growth target of "jumping and reaching"" pointed out that compared with last year's economic growth rate of about 2%, this year's economic growth rate of more than 5% The expected target seems a bit high, but it is not high compared to the average annual growth rate of more than 7% in the new era.

At the same time, compared with Guangdong's "14th Five-Year Plan" economic growth target, an increase of more than 5% this year can win the initiative for subsequent work and ensure the completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" with an average annual growth target of about 5%; compared with "a major economic province must take the lead" Assuming the mission of Guangdong, it is also necessary to better support the "stability" of the national economy with the "progress" of Guangdong's economy.

It can be said that the goal of more than 5% is conditional, basic, and necessary, and it is a goal of "jumping and reaching".

　　After Guangdong, Jiangsu, the second largest economic province, is expected to reach 12 trillion yuan in GDP in 2022. The Jiangsu government work report in 2023 pointed out that in the past five years, the province's GDP has crossed four trillion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of about 5.5%. .

The performance of its manufacturing industry is even more impressive. According to the 2023 government work report, the high-quality development index of Jiangsu's manufacturing industry in 2022 is 89.1, and the added value of manufacturing industry accounts for more than 37% of GDP, ranking first in the country; There are 186 national manufacturing single champion enterprises, 709 national specialized and special new "little giant" enterprises, and a total of 274 new domestic listed companies.

　　In the past five years, Zhejiang's economic aggregate has surpassed two steps of 6 trillion yuan and 7 trillion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 5.8%. Aiming at this year's growth target of 5%, Zhejiang Daily issued an article stating that this growth rate, after comprehensive consideration Considering many factors, first of all, it is necessary to see the current development situation clearly, and the optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention policies is not a one-time solution. While expecting smoother flow of people, logistics and business, we must also see that economic and social development is facing unprecedented new situations; secondly, the epidemic 3 The impact caused by the year cannot be ignored, and the foundation for economic recovery is not yet solid; finally, it is necessary to benchmark the general international development trend. From overseas experience, the general direction of gradually getting out of the epidemic and gradually improving the consumption environment is certain. However, due to the rebound of the epidemic Short-term consumption is still under pressure due to the impact of the strengthening of residents' self-protection awareness.

　　In view of this, Zhejiang's 2023 government work report proposed when deploying key tasks in 2023 that it will set off a new round of major project construction climax and continue to expand effective investment.

At the same time, it is also proposed to give priority to activation and expansion of consumption.

　　Zhejiang also emphasized to support the high-quality development of the platform economy, formulate precise support policies, establish a professional service mechanism, encourage platform companies to strengthen cutting-edge technology research and application promotion, and support platform companies to show their talents in leading development, creating jobs, and international competition.

　　The target growth rate of Henan and Sichuan is higher than that of other major economic provinces. According to Sichuan Daily, the relevant person in charge of the Sichuan Provincial Development and Reform Commission said that they proposed an expected target of GDP growth of about 6%, comprehensively studied and judged the current economic situation, and cooperated with the provincial " The goal of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the goal of the 12th Provincial Party Congress and the long-term goal of 2035 are connected, which is a growth rate that lays the foundation for the completion of medium and long-term goals.

　　Some economically powerful provinces also responded to specific issues of public concern in their government work reports.

For example, Henan pointed out that it will make every effort to prevent and resolve economic and financial risks.

Do a good job in ensuring the delivery of buildings, people's livelihood, and stability.

Improve the local financial supervision system.

Do a good job in the second half of the article on the reform and reorganization of Zhongyuan Bank.

Accelerate the reform of rural credit cooperatives and complete the establishment of Henan Rural Commercial United Bank.

Do a good job in the follow-up risk management of 4 rural banks, and promote the reform and reorganization of other rural banks by category.

Actively defuse local government debt risks and keep the bottom line of preventing systemic risks.