In 2022, the rate of increase in the cost of automotive fuel in Russia was noticeably lower than the overall increase in consumer prices for goods and services.

This was announced on Monday, January 16, by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak at a meeting with Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.

“Risks were constantly monitored and measures were taken (to control the cost of petroleum products. -

RT

).

At the end of the year, retail price growth was significantly lower than the inflation rate - gasoline grew by only 0.7%, and diesel fuel - by about 10%.

We will continue this work this year as well,” Novak said.

Note that from January to December 2022, inflation in Russia averaged 11.94%.

Such data was published on January 13 by the Federal State Statistics Service of the country (Rosstat).

As Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund, told RT, traditionally, among the population, the cost of fuel is considered one of the basic indicators of the state of affairs in the state.

Therefore, last year, against the backdrop of increased economic uncertainty, the authorities tried to prevent a sharp rise in fuel prices, in particular, they agreed with companies to curb prices at gas stations, the expert explained.

“There were also objective factors.

The enterprises had problems with the export of petroleum products, and they sent fuel to the domestic market.

Thanks to increased competition, fuel prices have barely risen.

In addition, more fuel began to come to us from Belarusian oil refineries (refineries), since they were under sanctions and could not sell goods to Europe, so the products went to us, ”added Yushkov.

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Recall that in 2022 the European Union, the United States and some other countries imposed large-scale sanctions against Moscow and began to refuse to purchase Russian energy resources.

In addition, since December 5, Western states have banned their companies from insuring and transporting oil from Russia to other regions of the world at a price higher than $60 per barrel.

From February 5, 2023, similar restrictions should apply to petroleum products.

Under these conditions, Russian producers began to gradually redirect fuel supplies from the West to the East.

At the same time, the business increased sales of fuel within the country, which had a positive impact on the cost of fuel in wholesale and retail.

“Throughout 2022, wholesale prices for petroleum products were generally under significant pressure due to disruptions in exports, which created a surplus in the Russian market.

It is also worth noting the work of the damper mechanism, which did not allow domestic prices to grow even at elevated world prices, ”said Sergey Kaufman, an analyst at Finam, in an interview with RT.

The so-called damper was launched back in 2019.

As part of the initiative, the state reimburses oil companies for lost revenues when supplying fuel to the domestic market.

If fuel prices in Russia are lower than export prices, producers receive compensation from the federal budget.

With a higher cost of raw materials within the country, business, on the contrary, deducts part of its profits to the treasury.

Before the embargo

As Alexander Novak noted, in 2022, the production of gasoline in Russia increased by 4.3%, and diesel fuel - by 6%.

At the same time, the supply of diesel in the country could not fully satisfy the demand, and therefore the prices for it grew much faster, Sergey Kaufman believes.

According to him, a similar problem could be observed in previous years.

In addition, by the end of 2022, Russian oil companies were able to increase the supply of diesel fuel abroad.

This factor additionally pushed up prices at Russian filling stations, Igor Yushkov said.

“In general, diesel has risen in price more than gasoline, because it is more in demand in the foreign market.

Since the embargo on the import of Russian oil products will come into force in the EU from February 5, in the last months of last year, Europeans sought to buy diesel from Russia as much as possible, ”the analyst explained.

Nevertheless, according to Sergei Kaufman, after the introduction of the European embargo, the volume of diesel in the domestic market of Russia should increase, and prices for this type of fuel may slightly decrease.

A similar point of view is shared by Igor Galaktionov, an expert on the stock market at BCS Mir Investments.

“External restrictions on the export of oil and petroleum products will be a key factor for the Russian fuel market in 2023.

The effect of these restrictions has yet to be assessed, but the consequence may be an increase in the supply of fuel within the country.

However, due to the peculiarities of the tax regulation of the industry, a serious reduction in retail prices is unlikely to occur, ”the specialist suggested.

So, from January 1, Russia raised the tax on the extraction of minerals in the oil industry.

Now companies are forced to deduct more significant amounts to the budget and may slightly raise the price tags at their gas stations, analysts do not exclude.

However, according to Sergey Kaufman, against the background of the European embargo and the operation of the damper mechanism, in 2023 the cost of gasoline and diesel will grow at a rate no higher than general inflation.

Moreover, at the moment the authorities have formed enough fuel reserves to contain prices, as previously stated by the head of the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation Nikolai Shulginov.

“The Ministry of Energy (holds. -

RT

) the situation is always under control.

Stocks are formed at refineries, PNPO for both diesel and gasoline.

For diesel - about 3 million tons, for gasoline - somewhere around 1.6 million. Therefore, I don’t think you need to worry, ”Shulginov noted on the air of the Rossiya 24 TV channel.

According to Rosstat, following the results of the first working week of 2023, the average price of AI-92 gasoline in the country was 47.18 rubles per liter, and the cost of AI-95 fuel was 51.34 rubles per liter.

At the same time, a liter of diesel fuel cost about 58.7 rubles.

According to the forecast of the Central Bank of Russia, this year the overall increase in prices for goods and services in Russia may reach 5-7%.

In this case, if the price of fuel rises near the level of inflation by the end of 2023, the cost of a liter of AI-92 can rise to about 49.54-50.48 rubles, AI-95 - 53.91-54.93 rubles, and diesel - up to 61 .64—62.81 rubles.