In 2022, the CPI will rise by 2.0% year-on-year. What will happen to prices in 2023?

　　China News Service, January 12th (China News Finance reporter Xie Yiguan) On the 12th, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the CPI data for the whole year of 2022 and December.

Affected by factors such as the narrowing of the decline in the price of fresh vegetables and the expansion of the increase in the price of fresh fruits, the CPI in December 2022 will increase by 1.8% year-on-year.

In addition, the CPI for the whole year of 2022 will rise by 2.0% year-on-year.

CPI rise and fall trend chart.

From the Office for National Statistics.

The year-on-year increase in CPI in December 2022 will expand slightly

　　According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from a year-on-year perspective, the CPI rose by 1.8% in December 2022, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.

Among them, food prices rose by 4.8%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points over the previous month, affecting an increase of about 0.87 percentage points in the CPI; non-food prices rose by 1.1%, the same increase as the previous month, affecting an increase of about 0.92 percentage points in the CPI.

　　According to Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, among foods, the price of pork rose by 22.2%, a drop of 12.2 percentage points from the previous month; The prices of oil and grain rose by 10.0%, 7.2% and 2.6% respectively, and the growth rates all fell back; the price of fresh vegetables fell by 8.0%, and the rate of decline narrowed by 13.2 percentage points.

　　"The core CPI excluding food and energy prices rebounded slightly, up 0.7% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month." Dong Lijuan pointed out.

Data map: A shopping center in Urumqi, Xinjiang.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Liu Xin

The prices of fresh vegetables and fresh fruits rose month-on-month, and the price of pork dropped more

　　From a month-on-month perspective, the CPI in December 2022 turned flat from a 0.2% decrease in the previous month.

Among them, food prices changed from a 0.8% decrease in the previous month to an increase of 0.5%, which affected the CPI increase by about 0.09 percentage points.

　　Dong Lijuan mentioned that in food, due to seasonal factors, the prices of fresh vegetables and fresh fruits rose by 7.0% and 4.7% respectively; the supply of live pigs continued to increase, and the price of pork fell by 8.7%, an increase of 8.0 percentage points from the previous month.

　　"The price of fresh vegetables and fresh fruits has risen sharply month-on-month, which is the most important factor for the rebound in food prices. The main reason is that the supply in winter is weak, and the holiday rising effect caused by moving the Spring Festival to January in 2023 is ahead of schedule." Chief Economist of Minsheng Bank Wen Bin said.

Data map: Haikou citizens are shopping at the farmers' market.

Photo by Zhang Yuehe

The CPI increase in 2022 is within the expected target

　　According to the information released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the CPI for the whole year of 2022 will rise by 2.0% year-on-year, which is within the expected target of about 3%.

　　Wan Jinsong, director of the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at a press conference on the 12th that my country's overall price level continues to run smoothly, and the domestic CPI monthly increase has always been running below 3%, and the annual increase is 2%, which is significantly lower than the United States' 8%. The growth rate of developed economies such as the euro area above 8% and the United Kingdom around 9% is also significantly lower than the 7%-10% (January-November) growth rate of emerging economies such as India, Brazil, and South Africa.

The contrast between international expansion and domestic stability is very stark.

　　"In 2022, in the face of the greatest inflationary pressure in the world in the past 40 years, our country has always maintained a strong financial and monetary policy, timely and effective epidemic prevention and control measures, a sound industrial production system, and relatively safe energy and food security. Relatively mild inflation level." Wen Bin said.

Data map: People are shopping in large supermarkets in Jinjiang District, Chengdu.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Liu Zhongjun

What will be the trend of CPI this year?

　　In 2022, domestic prices will remain stable. Will prices fluctuate significantly in 2023?

　　Wan Jinsong said that in 2023, although international commodity prices may fluctuate at high levels and imported inflationary pressures still exist, there is a solid foundation for my country's prices to maintain stable operation.

"Continuous bumper harvests in grain production, reasonable and sufficient pig production capacity, sufficient supply of important livelihood commodities, strong basic energy guarantees, further improvement of the supply and price stabilization system, and

."

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" Wen Bin believes that in general, in 2023, external inflationary pressures will ease, food prices will remain moderate and relatively low carryover factors will limit the increase in CPI, but as The optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures, and the recovery of domestic demand in China will push up the recovery of the core CPI and lead the recovery of the CPI center.

The annual CPI is expected to rise by 2.1% year-on-year in 2023, slightly higher than the level in 2022.

(Finish)