Chinanews.com, January 12 (Chinanews Finance and Economics reporter Xie Yiguan) On January 12, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the national consumer price index (CPI) for the whole year of 2022 and December. What will be the trend of the CPI in December 2022?
Will the annual CPI be within the expected target of around 3%?
CPI rise and fall trend chart.
from the Office for National Statistics
The year-on-year increase in CPI in December 2022 may expand slightly
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in December 2022, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 29.22 yuan/kg, a month-on-month decrease of 13.8%, and a year-on-year increase of 21.8%; the average wholesale price of vegetables was 4.10 yuan/kg, a month-on-month increase of 10.3%. A year-on-year decrease of 16.4%.
"In terms of food, pork and fresh vegetables, which are the most elastic, are in the opposite market. Among them, the demand for pork prices has weakened significantly due to the impact of the epidemic. Vegetable prices have risen festively early, and fresh vegetables and fresh fruits will increase significantly in the middle and late December of 2022." Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, said.
"Affected by demand, other foods have mixed ups and downs, and the festival effect is not obvious for the time being. It is expected that food prices will rise slightly month-on-month in December 2022." Wen Bin said, "Overall, it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in December 2022 will increase slightly. to 1.8 percent."
In November 2022, the CPI rose by 1.6% year-on-year.
According to statistics from Flush iFinD, the average year-on-year CPI forecast of 19 institutions for December 2022 is 1.85%.
If the above-mentioned average forecast value is fulfilled, the year-on-year increase in CPI in December 2022 will pick up slightly.
Data map: On September 15, people shop in a large supermarket in Jinjiang District, Chengdu.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Liu Zhongjun
The annual CPI target of around 3% is expected to be achieved
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, on average from January to November 2022, the CPI rose by 2.0% over the same period of the previous year.
What will happen to the CPI for the whole year in 2022?
Will it be possible to achieve the expected target of an average CPI increase of around 3% for the whole year?
"The annual CPI is expected to rise by 2.0% year-on-year, which is basically in a reasonable range." Wen Bin believes.
In Wen Bin's view, in 2022, in the face of the greatest inflationary pressure in the world in 40 years, my country will maintain a firm fiscal and monetary policy, timely and effective epidemic prevention and control measures, a sound industrial production system, and relatively safe energy and food. protection, and has always maintained a relatively moderate level of inflation.
Data map: Haikou citizens are shopping at the farmers' market.
Photo by Zhang Yuehe
What will be the trend of CPI in 2023?
"Looking forward to 2023, my country's inflation will remain moderate. With the relaxation of epidemic prevention and control and the recovery of demand, the inflation center is likely to increase slightly." Wen Bin said.
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities believes that in terms of CPI, food supply is relatively stable, and domestic demand for optional goods and service consumption is relatively insufficient. Although the optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures may promote the gradual recovery of consumer demand in 2023, the pressure on food and energy supply has eased, and CPI has "greatly eased." The trend is still expected to continue through 2023.
"It is initially estimated that at the beginning of 2023, the CPI may rise slightly to about 2.7% year-on-year due to the Spring Festival effect, but then it will fall rapidly." Shenwan Hongyuan Securities said that the overall CPI inflation pressure in 2023 is still relatively controllable.
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