How should China's economic recovery work?
Macroeconomists: The three core forces are supporting the improvement!
(CCTV Finance and Economics "Economy Half an Hour")
Use the most authoritative voice, the most front-line investigation, and everyone together to understand the Chinese economy in 2023.
In 2022, the hard work of every Chinese is expected to make the annual economic aggregate exceed 120 trillion yuan.
As China's epidemic prevention and control enters a new stage, people have more expectations, more forecasts, and more visions for the Chinese economy in 2023, but will the Chinese economy start a new journey smoothly?
At the beginning of the new year, "Economy Half Hour" launched a series of "Three Questions about China's Economy 2023" series of reports, going deep into the front line, interviewing several top Chinese and foreign experts, and taking you calmly and clearly to understand the resilience, potential and vitality of the Chinese economy in 2023.
Starting today, "Half an Hour of Economy" airs the first question: "How should China's economic recovery be strengthened?" Lead everyone to understand the key to the recovery of China's economy in 2023.
The three core strengths support the improvement
In 2023, China's economy will recover steadily!
Looking back to 2022, the international environment is high and the waves are turbulent, and the "triple pressure" of shrinking demand, supply shocks, and weakening expectations will not diminish. However, from the central government to the local governments, the whole country will work hard to fight the economy. The annual economic volume is expected to exceed 120 trillion yuan. The Chinese economy has demonstrated strong resilience and vitality.
On December 7, 2022, China's epidemic prevention and control policy will be further optimized and adjusted, and the "New Ten Rules" will provide a "new window" to promote the overall improvement of economic operation.
Against the background of increasing downward pressure on the world economy and weakening global trade momentum, China's foreign trade in the first 11 months increased by 8.6% year-on-year, of which exports increased by 11.9%.
Having survived the most difficult moment, what will the Chinese economy look like in 2023?
Macroeconomist Liu Yuanchun, President of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
Liu Yuanchun believes that the upward market in 2023 is worth looking forward to, but the trend of economic development will show a state of low at the beginning, high at the middle and stable at the end.
Regarding China's economic growth rate in 2023, Liu Yuanchun gave his own judgment.
Macroeconomist Liu Yuanchun, President of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
With the continuous changes of the epidemic situation in my country and the further efforts to develop the economy at the policy level, many internationally renowned institutions have raised their forecasts for China's economic growth in 2023.
UBS Group believes that the Chinese economy will grow by 4.9% in 2023, Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for China's economic growth in 2023 from 4.5% to 5.2%, and Morgan Stanley believes that the Chinese economy will grow by 5.4% in 2023.
Macroeconomist Liu Yuanchun, president of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics:
From this perspective, it is particularly important for our economy to achieve continuous growth against the trend in 2023 in a weak global environment. Gaming is a kind of strategic confidence for us as a whole, and the grasp of strategic opportunities is even more critical.
Reporter
: In your opinion, what are the main factors behind the economic recovery in 2023?
Macroeconomist Liu Yuanchun, President of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
: The first support point is the optimization of epidemic policies. The second is very important. China still has a lot of room for macroeconomic policies. For example, our government debt, plus local and The debt ratio of the central government is still only a little over 50%, which is still far from the warning line of 60%.
At the same time, our monetary policy, our reserve ratio, and our interest rate still have room to be lowered.
More importantly, our inflation rate is the lowest among major economies in the world, and we can carry out expansionary policies.
The third point is the most important, that is, the layout of strategic emerging industries we have carried out in the past 20 years, and the layout of the transformation of new and old kinetic energy, has achieved obvious results, that is to say, the proportion of our digital economy to GDP has exceeded 30%. %, our high-tech accounts for more than 30% of the entire economy.
As the world's new energy vehicles enter a stage of rapid growth, Europe and the United States have become important markets for my country's new energy vehicles and parts exports.
According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2022, it is expected to achieve annual sales of 6.7 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 90%.
On the one hand, the scale of the industry is constantly expanding, and on the other hand, digital transformation has become a key "increment" for the conversion of new and old kinetic energy.
In 2021, the numerical control rate of key processes in key industrial enterprises in my country and the penetration rate of digital R&D and design tools will reach 55.3% and 74.7%, respectively, an increase of 30.7 and 25.9 percentage points from 2012, respectively.
"Expanding domestic demand" will rise to a new height in 2023
A GDP growth rate of about 5.5% can achieve 12 million jobs
In the first 10 months of 2022, my country's foreign trade has made steady progress in general, and the total volume of imports and exports, total exports, and total imports have all reached new highs in the same period of history.
However, in the fourth quarter, the external environment has become more complex and severe, and insufficient external demand has become a prominent challenge. At the same time, the impact of the high base at the end of 2021 has gradually emerged, and foreign trade imports and exports have further come under pressure.
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in November, the total value of imports and exports was US$522.34 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%.
Not only foreign trade, according to the economic data of the National Bureau of Statistics in November, the growth rate of indicators such as industry, service industry, investment, consumption, and export all fell back.
Liu Yuanchun believes that on the road to recovery, we still have some variables. The first major variable is the epidemic situation, the second very important variable is real estate, and the third very important variable is the external environment.
Macroeconomist Liu Yuanchun, President of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
The wind is high and the waves are rushing, facing difficulties and moving forward.
2023 is the first year to fully implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. How to do economic work?
The Central Economic Work Conference held from December 15th to 16th, 2022 will conduct in-depth analysis and systematic deployment from the perspective of the overall strategy, and guide the direction of economic work in 2023.
The meeting decided to focus on expanding domestic demand at the top of all tasks, and emphasized the need to fully tap the potential of the domestic market and enhance the role of domestic demand in stimulating economic growth.
Macroeconomist Liu Yuanchun, President of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
: Insufficient effective demand directly leads to a sharp drop in our price level, and this sharp drop in prices directly leads to an accelerated decline in the profits of our enterprises.
Correspondingly, of course, we will see that the growth rate of our residents’ income has also dropped. When these factors are superimposed, we will see the emergence of a vicious circle caused by insufficient effective demand. We must break this The vicious circle must be further optimized in the epidemic policy, and a new round of stable growth policies must be introduced to expand domestic demand.
Reporter
: How big is the rebound resistance of consumption?
Macroeconomist Liu Yuanchun, President of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
: I think the core of the rebound in consumption is still the impact of the epidemic, but once the epidemic improves.
For example, as we have seen, in June 2022, Shanghai won a staged victory in the fight against the epidemic, and it was fully opened on June 13, which directly led to a year-on-year increase of six percent in consumption data in June.
The second is real estate. We need to introduce consumption stimulus policies around some core elements related to housing consumption. From the reform of the welfare housing system in 1998 to the present, 24 years is exactly the year when China carried out the second round of comprehensive home renovation. Now, as long as we start the consumption policy for home decoration, so that most people who need decoration can get decoration subsidies, this piece of consumption will rise.
The other is to increase the income of residents in the short term, especially the income of some groups that have been hit hard by the epidemic in recent years.
Since December 2022, many regions across the country have adopted different forms to issue consumer vouchers to help the city's "fireworks" return.
Liu Yuanchun believes that in order to really change the public's expectations, the public must have a sense of gain, but in this, we must pay attention to the issues of fairness, sustainable implementation path and quantity.
In the past two years, the United States has subsidized families at a level of about 30% of the income of American families, but it has also tasted the problem of inflation brought about by this large-scale subsidy. Inflation eventually led to a decline in the income of low-income groups. faster.
Reporter
: How to understand afterburner and efficiency improvement?
Macroeconomist Liu Yuanchun, President of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
: First of all, adding power is to be more active in terms of the total amount, which is mainly reflected in the first deficit ratio. The deficit ratio should be increased. In 2022, our budget deficit ratio will be 2.8%. We now call for To increase to more than 3%.
The second is special-purpose debt. In 2022, our overall special-purpose debt is 3.65 trillion yuan. In 2023, the scale will be further improved on this basis. The original estimate is that it is planned to reach 3.8 trillion yuan, and there will be discount interest at the same time.
In Liu Yuanchun's view, a more active fiscal policy can not only help consumption recover and promote economic growth, but the longer-term effect is to promote employment.
In 2023, the number of college graduates across the country is expected to reach 11.58 million, a year-on-year increase of 820,000, setting a new record for "the most difficult employment season in history".
How to solve the employment problem has become the focus of the whole society.
The Central Economic Work Conference also put promoting the employment of college graduates at the top of social policy for the first time.
Half-hour observation: start a new beginning, show a new atmosphere
At the beginning of the new year in 2023, many catering, hotel, and tourism practitioners have regained their long-lost busyness. The road traffic is busy, the business district is full of people, and a China full of fireworks is back.
According to data from relevant departments, the average daily number of passengers sent by national railways during the New Year’s Day holiday increased by 109% compared with November 2022; domestic tourism revenue was 26.517 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%; new highs.
The real "hot data" is telling us that the prosperous Chinese economy is by our side at this moment.
We believe that we can deeply understand the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, implement the decision-making and deployment of the Party Central Committee in place, and truly transform the new expectations inspired by the optimization of epidemic prevention policies into new dividends and new momentum for the market.
In the "Dynamic China" of 2023, the daily life of hundreds of millions of people will be more colorful and prosperous.
(CCTV Finance)