China News Agency, Beijing, January 10 (Reporter Pang Wuji) Wang Tao, director of Asian economic research and chief China economist at UBS, said at the online media sharing session of the "23rd UBS Greater China Seminar" on the 10th , It is expected that China's economy will recover this year, and the annual GDP will grow by about 5%. At the same time, inflation is expected to be relatively moderate, and the CPI (Consumer Price Index) is expected to average around 3%.
Wang Tao said that in 2023, China's economy is expected to recover from the impact of the epidemic and consumption will recover.
The agency's research found that in the past three years, the savings rate of the Chinese people has increased by 3 to 5 percentage points.
After getting out of the epidemic, people can release the backlog of savings, and some previously expected demand will be gradually released, which will become the main driving force for the rebound in consumption this year.
In addition, Wang Tao believes that China's real estate activities will stabilize in 2023, and the negative impact on the economy will be reduced.
She pointed out that it is expected that real estate sales volume and newly started area will bottom out in the last one or two months, and will start to rebound month-on-month in March and April this year (after deducting seasonal factors).
For the whole year, real estate sales volume and newly started floor area have rebounded from the current trough to the end of the year, and the month-on-month growth may reach double digits.
However, due to the deep adjustment of real estate, the real estate sales volume and newly started area this year may still be slightly lower than last year.
With the restart of the economy, the prices of service industries including catering, tourism, and accommodation may rebound significantly. Will this bring inflationary pressure?
Wang Tao believes that there is no need to worry too much about inflation this year.
China should not experience persistently high and record-breaking inflation after the economic restart, as in economies such as Europe and the United States.
On the one hand, the restart of China's economy is taking place against the background of slowing global economic growth.
The current global commodity prices, especially energy prices, have dropped a lot compared to the beginning of last year, and the pressure of imported inflation has decreased.
On the other hand, China's real estate market is expected to stabilize this year, but it is likely to be a weak recovery, and the upward pressure on upstream raw material prices is not strong, so the impact of upstream cost pressure on downstream industries this year is also relatively weak.
Overall, inflation is benign.
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