Fund managers conduct intensive research to prepare for the spring market

[The number of products last year exceeded 10,000 pieces, and the "basic" love is still the same this year]

　　Looking back on 2022, the A-share market has fully demonstrated structural shocks, and the three major indexes have fallen to varying degrees.

Among them, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 15.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 25.85%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 29.37%.

However, even the bleak market cannot stop the vigorous development of China's fund industry.

In 2022, the management scale of public offering funds once exceeded 27 trillion yuan, setting a new record; the number of products exceeded 10,000, which became an important milestone in the development of the fund industry; the personal pension business was launched, infrastructure REITs accelerated expansion, ETF and ESG, etc. With the emergence of innovative product formats, the fund industry is presenting a new development pattern of "a hundred flowers blooming".

　　In 2022, on the one hand, it is the rapid development of the fund industry, and on the other hand, it is the pain of Jimin's continuous loss of money.

"Even capital-guaranteed funds lose money." Many Christians are said to be afraid to open their accounts.

However, lying flat is not the right way to invest. How to face the market in 2023?

What investment strategy should we choose?

This has also become a real problem facing Christians.

The Beijing Youth Daily reporter noticed that after the general loss of money in 2022, some fund managers did not feel depressed. At the beginning of the new year, they started intensive research on listed companies and launched a layout for the "spring turmoil" market.

　　scale

　　As of November 2022

　　The number of public offering funds exceeded 10,000

　　According to the latest statistics from the China Asset Management Association, as of November 2022, 154 public offering fund managers have managed a total of 10,405 products.

From the perspective of product structure, among the more than 10,000 public offering funds, there are more than 6,300 stock and hybrid funds, accounting for nearly 30% of the management scale; there are more than 3,100 bond funds, accounting for more than 30% of the management scale; There are more than 370 funds, and there are more than 220 QDII funds.

The size of the cargo base accounts for about 40%, and it is still the largest type of public offering products.

　　In September last year, a number of "hard technology ETFs" such as chip ETFs on the science and technology innovation board, new materials ETFs on the science and technology innovation board, and machine tool ETFs were intensively issued, and "hard technology" investment added another "sharp weapon".

In November, the first batch of CBEX index funds came into the market, attracting more incremental capital inflows and further helping financial services to the real economy.

　　highlights

　　Publicly offered REITs have become dark horses in the market

　　Pension Y fund opens a new era

　　In the past year, the most beautiful scenery in the fund industry was not that the number of funds exceeded 10,000, but that funds were more widely involved in the market, industry and national life.

For example, a series of innovative incremental products such as China Securities Environmental Exchange Carbon Neutral ETF, China Securities 1000 Index ETF, and various hard technology ETFs will be launched intensively in 2022. The number of ETF fund products exceeds 750, and the management scale has exceeded 1.4 trillion yuan.

　　Public REITs, which have attracted much market attention, have rapidly expanded in the past year and have become a dark horse in the fund market.

Among them, the offline subscription multiples of many public offering REITs have repeatedly set new records, and the proportion of public placements has hit new lows. Investors are very enthusiastic about this "new type of basic citizen".

At present, there are 24 listed REITs products; the total issuance scale of REITs reaches 78.36 billion yuan; the valuation of 24 REITs is 77.792 billion yuan; as of the close of December 30, 2022, the market value is 86.2043 billion yuan, an increase of 10.01% compared with the time of issuance; The total net value of the fund is 78.11458 billion yuan.

Among them, the strategic allotment funds reached 56.205 billion yuan.

As of December 30, 2022, there are a total of 12 REITs that have paid dividends, with a dividend amount of about 2.7 billion yuan.

　　The most noteworthy thing is that the "opening" of the personal pension business at the end of 2022 will also bring new development opportunities for the public fund industry.

On November 4 last year, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the "Interim Regulations on the Management of Personal Pension Investment Publicly Offered Securities Investment Fund Business", and the personal pension investment public offering fund business was officially implemented.

Fund companies are gearing up to make full use of systems, personnel, products, and investment education to accelerate the deployment of elderly care business and seize the "trillion-level" blue ocean.

On November 18, the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced the latest list of personal pension funds. A total of 129 pension target fund products under 40 fund companies were included in the allocation, all of which were exclusive Y-type fund shares added by personal pension investment.

On November 28, personal pension funds were officially launched for sale, and the public fund industry ushered in the "third pillar" personal pension investment Y era.

This business has allowed the fund to go from being a Christian in a narrow sense to thousands of households.

　　After excluding the newly established funds in 2022, the average return rate of equity funds for the whole year of 2022 is -16.9%, and 363 funds have gained positive returns during this period.

After excluding QDII and commodity funds, a total of 45 funds (A/C are calculated separately) will earn more than 10% in 2022, of which 10 funds will earn more than 20% within the year.

　　trend

　　Fund manager at the beginning of the new year

　　Research layout "spring restlessness"

　　At the beginning of the new year, the annual "spring turmoil" market has attracted widespread attention from fund managers.

They have just recovered from the effect of losing money in the past year, and they started to adjust their positions and swap shares, laying out the "spring turmoil".

According to incomplete statistics, in the past month, institutions have surveyed listed companies more than 600 times, including many star fund managers.

For example, on January 2, Xu Zhibiao of Cathay Pacific Fund and Zhou Keping of Huaxia Fund investigated Yuanwang Technology; on January 3, Wu Yuanyi of GF Fund investigated Mengtai High-tech; Investigate Jingxin Pharmaceutical; on January 5, Li Xin from Industrial Fund, Wang Yingli from China Europe Fund, and Sui Huazhen from Huaxia Fund investigated Hegang Resources.

Judging from the research information of fund managers, general equipment, metal and non-metal new materials, robotics, chemical pharmaceuticals, food and other industries rank among the top five in terms of research enthusiasm.

The research objects are mainly small-cap stocks with a market value of less than 10 billion, and most of the research objects have experienced a large decline in stock prices in recent years.

　　A fund manager in Beijing told a Beijing Youth Daily reporter that it is now basically certain that the spring turmoil has begun. Since New Year’s Day, although the overall index has risen in general and the main forces of domestic and foreign capital have joined forces to boost the rise, it is indeed exciting, but the transactions between the two cities have not Significantly magnified, funds are still biased towards weight and constituent stocks, and the profit-making effect has not been significantly expanded, which will affect the height of the spring turmoil.

"A year's plan lies in spring." The intensive research of fund managers is also to do a good job of reconnaissance for the development of the spring market.

　　outlook

　　After the impact of the epidemic factor is reduced

　　economic recovery is inevitable

　　Huang Hai, the fund manager of the performance champion in 2022, said that in the second quarter of last year, they used some positions to lay out the new energy industry, mainly the offshore wind power sector.

At the beginning of the fourth quarter of last year, the two sectors of liquor and banking were laid out.

Looking forward to 2023, Huang Hai said that with the bottoming out of economic fundamentals, the scope of layout will be wider.

Upstream resource products, real estate industry chains, chemicals, building materials, consumption, and finance are all good layout directions.

　　Looking forward to the A-share market, Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund believes that the performance growth rate of listed companies is expected to bottom out in the second and third quarters of 2023, while the current PPI (Industrial Producer Price Index) is in a rapid decline stage. The second quarter is expected to stabilize. Driven by the liberalization of epidemic control and policy efforts, it is expected that the market risk appetite in 2023 will be greatly improved compared with last year.

Overall, it is optimistic about the three main lines of investment, including the recovery of consumption benefiting from the optimization of epidemic prevention and control policies, the high-boom growth sector whose valuation has returned to a reasonable level, and the recovery opportunities of the real estate-related industrial chain.

　　Yang Bin, president of Shanghai Science and Technology Fund, said that he is very optimistic about the market in 2023, but the process may show a spiral upward trend. In 2023, he is still optimistic about the four major tracks of integrated circuits, biomedicine, new energy and digitalization.

Yang Bin believes that after the impact of the epidemic is reduced, economic recovery must be inevitable.

In addition, the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China has drawn a clearer blueprint and direction for the long-term development of China's economy, and the Central Economic Work Conference has also clearly set the main tone for 2023. We believe that economic recovery will also be very clear in 2023. I believe it will inevitably bring about the reaction of the secondary market.

As the market recovers, many areas will receive more attention from investors.

　　This group article/Reporter Zhu Kaiyun