【Everyone talks about China's economy】High-frequency data shows that China's economic operation and consumption heat are steadily recovering

　　Chinanews.com, January 7th,

　　On January 6, at a symposium held at the Xi Jinping Economic Thought Research Center, Yang Daoling, director and researcher of the Big Data Analysis Department of the Big Data Development Department of the National Information Center, said that with the accelerated optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention and control policies, various measures to stabilize growth With continuous landing and empowerment, it is expected that market confidence will steadily recover and rise this year, and the endogenous driving force of economic development is expected to stabilize and strengthen, which will promote my country's economy to become warmer and better.

　　The National Information Center has monitored and analyzed more than 20 types of high-frequency data and 391 million pieces of high-frequency data such as enterprise registration, bidding, human flow, online consumption, and construction machinery operation. Affected by various factors, my country's economic recovery has slowed down since the fourth quarter of last year, but in general, my country's economy has withstood the impact of various unexpected impact factors in 2022, showing strong resilience, potential and vitality.

Yang Daoling, director and researcher of the Big Data Analysis Division of the Big Data Development Department of the State Information Center.

Photo courtesy

　　Specifically:

First, from the perspective of investment: overall project investment is growing relatively rapidly, and engineering construction-related industries are gradually recovering. It is expected that this year will continue to maintain resilience and continue to make efforts

　　In 2022, in the face of the downward pressure on the economy, the Party Central Committee and the State Council will take multiple measures, continue to deploy reasonable expansion of effective investment, and give full play to the important role of investment in economic recovery and development, and have achieved remarkable results.

High-frequency data monitoring and analysis found that:

The monitoring and analysis of bid winning data for investment projects across the country shows that since 2022, the number of winning bids for engineering projects has grown rapidly overall, with a year-on-year growth rate reaching a relatively high level of 57.7%.

From the perspective of the fourth quarter, although the growth rate of medium and small volume declined in October, it rebounded rapidly thereafter and rebounded to 63.2% in December, showing that the growth momentum is still strong.

On the other hand, industries related to engineering construction are picking up steadily

.

Data show that since April 2022, the year-on-year decline in the total sales of various types of construction machinery in China has continued to narrow. In November, the decline was 4%, which was 38.3 percentage points lower than that in April.

Among them, sales of representative excavators have achieved positive year-on-year growth in November, with a growth rate of 2.7%, which is 66.3 percentage points higher than the low point in March, and the recovery momentum is obvious.

At the same time, the mill operation rate, which reflects the cement production situation, also showed a trend of narrowing the decline and fluctuations. The decline in December narrowed by 32.1 percentage points from the low point in April.

Considering favorable factors such as increased policy support this year, recovery of market confidence, and optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures, it is expected that in 2023, the endogenous growth momentum of investment will continue to strengthen, investment resilience will continue to be highlighted, and it will play a more critical role in stabilizing the economic market .

　　Giving full play to the key role of investment, especially promoting the implementation of investment in major construction projects as soon as possible, is an important starting point for stimulating employment, expanding consumption, and boosting market confidence. important measures.

In terms of investment this year, we still need to continue to make precise efforts. We must focus on key areas and major national strategies, and actively select and reserve projects according to local conditions. At the same time, we must improve the financing mechanism for investment projects and give full play to the leverage of major projects and government investment. More social funds will participate extensively to stimulate the vitality of private investment.

Second, in terms of consumption: a number of consumption indicators have stabilized and rebounded, and consumption enthusiasm is steadily recovering

　　Since December last year, many places across the country have been hit by the epidemic one after another, and consumption vitality has been affected to varying degrees.

According to the requirements of the Central Economic Work Conference, we should optimize and adjust the epidemic prevention and control policies in accordance with the deployment of the Party Central Committee, strengthen overall coordination, organize and implement them in an orderly manner, and smoothly pass through the epidemic period to ensure a smooth transition and social order stability.

As the epidemic situation in various places has peaked and passed, many places are actively and orderly helping to resume work and production, and promote the accelerated recovery of urban vitality.

The subway traffic heat index constructed based on the subway traffic data of 18 cities across the country shows that since December last year, the popularity of subway traffic in my country has dropped first and then increased. The current index has reached 61.4, a sharp rise of 36.5 points from the low point in December.

At the same time,

In terms of industries, consumption in the life service industry is picking up at a faster pace.

Businesses in the life service industry are not only the capillaries of economic and social operations, but also the main source of "fireworks".

The consumption heat index of the life service industry we constructed based on the order data of life service merchants such as catering, accommodation, leisure and entertainment has also continued to recover recently. As of January 2, it was 98.1, an increase of 4.0 points from the low point in December. Consumption is accelerating to "heat up", especially the tourism consumption heat index has increased by 45.7 points, showing a strong recovery momentum.

　　But at the same time, we must also realize that under the pressure of the economic downturn and the repeated impact of the epidemic, it will still take time to restore residents' consumer confidence and willingness to consume.

In the next step, in accordance with the requirements of the Central Economic Work Conference, the recovery and expansion of consumption should be given priority, and more powerful measures should be taken to enhance consumption capacity, improve consumption conditions, increase consumption scenarios, and focus on eliminating unfavorable factors that restrict residents' consumption. The potential is fully released.

Third, in terms of foreign trade: imports are the first to pick up, and the growth momentum of foreign trade is generally stable

　　The monitoring of high-frequency indicators related to foreign trade shows that, driven by domestic policies, my country's trade has grown steadily and shown strong resilience.

According to the port logistics data, the port logistics index in December was 84.49, an increase of 2.31% from the previous month.

The data from the Ministry of Transport also shows that the cargo throughput of the port has gradually recovered. Since December, the cargo throughput has first declined and then increased. It bottomed out on December 24 and then rebounded rapidly. An increase of 2.6%.

Second, the activity of foreign trade events continued to pick up.

The analysis of foreign trade-related public opinion data on the world's major Internet platforms shows that the activity of foreign trade-related public opinion events is highly correlated with the overall trend of foreign trade.

In December 2022, the activity of foreign trade public opinion events was 2787.4, an increase of 11.8% from the previous month.

It shows that my country's foreign trade has maintained strong resilience, and the recovery trend is obvious.

Third, imports on the Australia-New Zealand route have grown rapidly.

According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, in 2022, the import container freight index of the Australia-New Zealand route has been on the rise. Although there was a short-term decline in late November, it bottomed out in mid-December and reached 2256.87 as of January 4, a low point. rose by 9.6 percentage points.

Fourth, the trade highlights of countries along the “Belt and Road” are outstanding.

According to data from the Ningbo Shipping Exchange, the Maritime Silk Road trade index for countries along the “Belt and Road” in November was 256.63, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% and a month-on-month increase of 5.6%.

With the liberalization of the epidemic policy and the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand, my country will further increase the level of opening up, deeply tap the potential of domestic demand, and continuously expand the role of domestic demand in promoting import trade.

Fourth, from the perspective of business operations, the vitality of market players is gradually recovering

On the one hand, the scale of market entities has recovered steadily.

Affected by various unexpected factors at home and abroad, my country's market players are facing more difficulties and challenges. However, with the implementation of a package of policy measures to stabilize the economy, the scale of market players will increase steadily in 2022, especially in the second half of August, September and October. In the past three months, the growth momentum of market entities has continued to rise, and the enthusiasm for entrepreneurship in the market has gradually recovered.

Enterprise registration data show that from January to November 2022, my country's newly established market entities will increase by 3.2% year-on-year, of which newly established individual industrial and commercial households will increase by 7.4% year-on-year.

On the other hand, the business vitality of enterprises has picked up.

By analyzing the daily flow of people around 100 representative incubators across the country, an entrepreneurial business vitality index was constructed.

The data shows that the business vitality index of start-ups in the first half of the year showed an overall recovery trend. Although the index affected by the epidemic in the fourth quarter fell to a low level of the year, it recovered to 81.3 at the end of December, an increase of 2.3 points from the low point. This shows that innovation and entrepreneurship are the most active year The operating vitality of a number of enterprises has shown signs of recovery.

　　The business vitality index of the life service industry constructed based on the start of business of life service merchants shows that since the last week of December, the index has risen day by day, indicating that more and more merchants are recovering from the impact of the epidemic and are starting business one after another.

At the same time, we constructed the on-the-job rate indicator based on the traffic data of office spaces in 80 cities across the country. The data also showed the same conclusion. Recently, the office occupancy rate in my country has quickly recovered by nearly 10 percentage points from the low point of last month. Among them, Beijing and Shanghai , Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other key cities recovered by 32.9, 14.0, 14.6, and 15.5 percentage points respectively.

　　Recently, various localities have actively optimized epidemic prevention and control measures, effectively boosting market confidence, and the implementation of a series of policies and measures to promote the development of market players has also provided strong support for stimulating the vitality of market players.

　　Looking forward to 2023, with the improvement of market expectations and the recovery of market demand, the operating vitality of market players will also be further enhanced.

In accordance with the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, we must focus on implementing policies around the needs of market entities, improve the operability of policies according to specific circumstances, improve policy implementation methods, enhance the timeliness and accuracy of various measures to stabilize the economy, and continue to infuse blood for enterprises and stabilize expectations. Accelerate the overall recovery of market entities.

(Finish)

search

copy