Wu Yuhua

　　In the first trading week of 2023, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index, and ChiNext Index rose by 2.21%, 3.19%, and 3.21% respectively. Market turnover gradually picked up, and the net inflow of northbound funds exceeded 20 billion yuan.

　　Analysts said that the impact of short-term negative factors is gradually fading, and positive factors are increasing.

Looking ahead, the upward mid-term trend is certain.

Heavy volume rise

　　This week is the first trading week in 2023. A-shares continued to rebound. The Shanghai Composite Index rose for 4 consecutive trading days, standing at 3150 points, and the ChiNext Index stood at 2400 points.

　　The turnover of A shares gradually picked up.

Wind data shows that by the end of 2022, the turnover of A shares will hover around 600 billion yuan.

Entering 2023, the turnover of A shares will gradually increase. On January 3, the turnover of A shares was 789.047 billion yuan, on January 4 it was 783.905 billion yuan, on January 5 it was 842.899 billion yuan, and on January 6 it was 838.228 billion yuan Yuan.

　　According to Wind data, as of the close of the 6th, the total market value of A shares was 87.19 trillion yuan, and the total market value of A shares increased by 2.29 trillion yuan this week.

　　Judging from this week's market performance, Wind data shows that the number of A-share stocks rose by 4,051, accounting for nearly 80%, and 362 stocks rose by more than 10% this week.

　　In terms of industry sectors, only the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, social services, and transportation industries among Shenwan's first-level industries this week fell, with declines of 1.22%, 0.96%, and 0.15% respectively.

All other industries rose, led by the computer, building materials, and communications industries, with increases of 5.15%, 5.08%, and 5.05% respectively.

　　Xia Fengguang, manager of Rongzhi Investment Fund, said that the expected market in the first half of the year has quietly started, and the upward trend in the medium term is certain.

First, the current overall valuation of A shares is at a low level.

Second, the economic recovery is expected to be high. With the strengthening of policies and the low base last year, there is a high degree of certainty that the economy will climb in the first and second quarters of this year.

Third, foreign capital is actively entering the market, the continuous inflow of northbound capital and the strength of the Hong Kong stock market indicate that foreign capital has begun to actively look at Chinese assets.

Positives increase

　　In terms of funds, northbound funds continued to increase their positions.

Wind data shows that on the 6th, the net inflow of northbound funds was 6.066 billion yuan.

This week, northbound funds are the main source of incremental funds in the market, with a cumulative net inflow of 20.019 billion yuan.

Among them, the net inflow of Shanghai Stock Connect funds was 8.334 billion yuan, and the net inflow of Shenzhen Stock Connect funds was 11.685 billion yuan.

　　Judging from the data of the top ten active stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect on the 6th, Ping An, Kweichow Moutai, and Wuliangye received the largest net inflows of northbound funds, with net purchases of 817 million yuan, 816 million yuan, and 626 million yuan respectively.

　　This week, northbound funds have significantly increased their positions in A-share core assets.

According to Wind data, from January 3rd to 5th, the amount of northbound funds added to Ningde Times, Wuliangye, Ping An, Kweichow Moutai, Oriental Fortune, and Mindray Medical ranked first, with 1.927 billion yuan, 1.614 billion yuan, 1.349 billion yuan, and 1.349 billion yuan respectively. 950 million yuan, 554 million yuan, 542 million yuan.

　　Zhao Yuanyuan, investment director of Jianhong Times, said that medium-term factors will support the market to maintain a strong pattern in the first two months.

Sustained opportunities during the period may arise in the following sub-sectors: offline consumption and transportation supported by consumption recovery, digital economy stimulated by policies, industrial informatization, advanced manufacturing, photovoltaic auxiliary materials and large-scale energy storage due to economic reversal.

　　"Looking forward to the market outlook, we are still positive and bullish, and the current positive factors in the market are increasing." Yan Xiang, chief strategist at Founder Securities, said, first of all, the US inflation data in November 2022 is lower than market expectations, and the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December 2022 as scheduled 50 basis points, the intensity of interest rate hikes has begun to slow down.

Secondly, from a fundamental point of view, the performance of A-share listed companies has entered the middle and late stages of this round of profit downward cycle, and the stage of the fastest decline in profit may have passed.