Author: Du Chuan

　　On the fifth day of the new year, the property market ushered in another big positive.

　　On the evening of January 5, the People's Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a notice, deciding to establish the first set of dynamic adjustment mechanism for housing loan interest rate policy.

Cities where the sales prices of newly-built commercial housing have declined for three consecutive months month-on-month and year-on-year may maintain, lower or cancel the lower limit of the local first-home mortgage interest rate policy in stages.

　　This means that the phased relaxation of the lower limit of the first-home loan interest rate in some cities has been further optimized and continued.

According to market analysis, timely and dynamic adjustment of interest rates based on the latest housing price changes in various cities and reduction of housing purchase costs will help better support rigid and improved housing demand.

　　Establish the first housing loan interest rate policy dynamic adjustment mechanism

　　According to the dynamic adjustment mechanism of the interest rate policy for first-home housing loans, cities where the sales prices of newly-built commercial housing have declined for three consecutive months month-on-month and year-on-year may maintain, lower or cancel the lower limit of the local first-home loan interest rate policy in stages.

　　In this regard, the central bank stated that the housing loan interest rate policy is linked to the price trend of new housing and adjusted dynamically, which is conducive to supporting the city government to scientifically evaluate the changes in the sales price of local commercial housing, and "policy according to the city" makes full use of the policy toolbox, which is better To support the rigid demand for housing, and form a long-term mechanism to support the stable and healthy operation of the real estate market.

　　Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of China Merchants Union Finance, believes that the establishment of the first set of dynamic adjustment mechanism for housing loan interest rate policy is a concrete manifestation of differentiated housing credit policies and has positive significance.

First, it is conducive to "policy according to the city", authorizing local governments to adjust the lower limit of first-home loan interest rates according to local real estate market conditions; second, it helps local governments and financial institutions to adjust the lower limit of first-home loan interest rates in a timely and flexible manner according to market changes Make timely adjustments; the third is to help reduce the housing consumption burden of residents, better support rigid housing demand, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

　　"In the current sluggish real estate market and sluggish consumer demand for housing, it is expected that most banks will actually implement the lower limit of mortgage interest rates for most customers. In the future, the lower limit of first-home loan interest rates may be 3.5%~4.1%. The mortgage interest rate is as low as 3.43% (4.9% × 0.7).” Dong Ximiao said.

　　The interest rate of the first home in some cities is expected to be further reduced

　　In fact, as early as September 2022, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a notice stating that for cities where the sales price of new commercial housing in June to August 2022 has continued to decline month-on-month and year-on-year, before the end of 2022, the first set of residential housing will be gradually relaxed before the end of 2022. Housing commercial personal housing loan interest rate lower limit.

　　Since then, the lower limit of first-home loan interest rates in Wuhan, Tianjin, Wenzhou and other cities has dropped below 4%, and some cities have canceled the lower limit of interest rates, and the implementation of interest rates will end on December 31, 2022.

　　In the eyes of the market, this policy is a continuation and deepening of the previous policy of relaxing the lower limit of the first-home loan interest rate.

　　"In September last year, the central bank launched a temporary policy. From the current point of view, the policy continues the reform ideas in 2022. All localities can make independent decisions according to the real estate market situation. This means that in 2023, the policy will be further used to support the real estate market. recovery.” said Yan Yuejin, Research Director of Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute.

　　Dong Ximiao told reporters that compared with the temporary policy in September 2022, the core of this mechanism lies in "dynamic adjustment", that is, the lower limit of the first-home loan interest rate can be relaxed or tightened under certain conditions--the sales price of newly built commercial housing month-on-month and year-on-year Cities that have declined for three consecutive months can maintain, lower or cancel the lower limit of the local first-home loan interest rate policy in stages; the sales price of new commercial housing has risen for three consecutive months month-on-month and year-on-year, and the national unified first-home loan interest rate should be restored lower limit.

　　The central bank made it clear that for cities where the sales price of new commercial housing during the assessment period has declined for three consecutive months month-on-month and year-on-year, the lower limit of interest rates on first-home commercial personal housing loans will be gradually relaxed.

According to the principle of city-specific policies, local governments can independently decide to maintain, lower or cancel the lower limit of local first-home commercial personal housing loan interest rates in stages starting from the next quarter.

Branches of the People's Bank of China and agencies dispatched by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission shall guide the implementation of the provincial-level market interest rate pricing self-regulatory mechanism.

　　For cities that have adopted a phased reduction or cancellation of the lower limit of the local first-home commercial personal housing loan interest rate, if the sales price of new commercial housing has risen for three consecutive months month-on-month and year-on-year during the follow-up evaluation period, it should resume from the next quarter. The lower limit of interest rates on commercial personal housing loans for the first home shall be implemented nationwide.

　　Chen Wenjing, director of market research at the Index Division of the China Index Research Institute, believes that the introduction of this policy means that the interest rates for first-home loans in some cities are expected to continue at the previous level or be further reduced.

　　Favorable policies currently benefit 39 cities

　　"Currently, the real estate market in many cities is under great adjustment pressure, and prices are still on a downward path. In the short term, there are more cities that meet the conditions and can lower or cancel the lower limit of the first-home loan interest rate." Chen Wenjing pointed out.

　　The central bank made it clear in the notice that starting from the fourth quarter of 2022, the municipal governments can make dynamic assessments of changes in the sales prices of new local commercial housing at the end of each quarter, from the end of the previous quarter to the second month of this quarter. Evaluate.

　　According to the market situation when the policy was introduced in September, a total of 23 cities conformed to the above policy, basically concentrated in third- and fourth-tier cities and some second-tier cities. After the policy is extended, which cities are in line with this policy?

Is there any change from before?

　　Based on the sales price index of new commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in September, October, and November released by the National Bureau of Statistics, a reporter from China Business News found that a total of 39 cities conform to this policy.

Compared with the 23 cities when the policy was introduced in September last year, it has increased by 16 cities.

　　Specifically including Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Taiyuan, Shenyang, Dalian, Changchun, Harbin, Fuzhou, Xiamen, Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Nanning, Kunming, Lanzhou, Tangshan, Qinhuangdao, Dandong, Jinzhou, Jilin, Mudanjiang, Wuxi, Xuzhou, Yangzhou, Wenzhou, Jinhua, Bengbu, Jiujiang, Jining, Luoyang, Pingdingshan, Yichang, Xiangyang, Yueyang, Changde, Shaoguan, Zhanjiang, Huizhou, Guilin, Beihai.

　　In addition, under the continuous efforts of policies, compared with the situation in September, the sales prices of new commercial housing in 6 cities have seen positive changes, including Guiyang, Baotou, Anqing, Quanzhou, Luzhou, and Dali.

　　Dong Ximiao suggested that in 2023, we should further increase the implementation of differentiated housing credit policies, and speed up the adoption of measures such as reducing the down payment ratio, canceling "recognizing a house and subscribing for a loan", and reducing loan interest rates.

The current housing credit policy adjustments are mainly focused on supporting rigid housing demand. More powerful support measures should be taken in how to better support improved housing demand, and the lower limit of second housing loan interest rates should also be adjusted appropriately.

For the purchase restriction policy, it is recommended to make appropriate adjustments, such as appropriately relaxing the purchase restriction policy in first- and second-tier cities, and allowing residents who have settled their loans to purchase a third house.