The FDP faces four state elections in which it again has more to lose than to win.

Their re-entry into the state parliaments is currently not guaranteed either in Berlin and Bremen or in Bavaria in the autumn, at most in Hesse the Free Democrats are somewhat more stable above the five percent hurdle.

Good federal government is not enough for state successes, but bad government can very quickly screw up the mood at the grassroots level and thus the regional election chances in 2023.

At the traditional Epiphany meeting under the daring motto "The future believes in us", Christian Lindner primarily practiced expectation management in order to prevent the unreasonable demands of governing with Red and Green in the alliance from leading to frustration and paralysis of the supporters.

The leader of the FDP and Federal Minister of Finance has so far been irreplaceable as the leader of the pack, as the appearances of the other speakers in Stuttgart confirm.

Involved in the cabinet discipline, Lindner cannot switch to attack for the time being.

A very stimulating speech

With regard to the SPD and the Greens, his speech was extremely unstimulating.

He defends the enormous debt and praises the Green Economics Minister for his efforts to use the frowned upon CCS technology (storage of CO2 in the ground).

And in order to win over the bulky partners for lower corporate taxes, he appeals to their self-interest in a strong economy.

Lindner can list a few liberal successes – as a kind of down payment on the announced supply-side growth agenda – such as the reduction of fiscal inflation gains in favor of taxpayers, incentives for transfer recipients to move up, the ratification of the free trade agreement with Canada.

He also rightly points out that it would not be easier with the Union.

It's true: the FDP does not get support for a more liberal policy here - and the economy also prefers to come to terms with swelling subsidy pots.

So alone and against the zeitgeist, the FDP cannot initiate the swing to growth policy.

But the country needs that more than ever in order to catch up with the competition.