Hu Yu

　　According to a reporter from the China Securities Journal, as of press time on January 5, China Merchants Securities, China Securities, CICC, Zhongtai Securities, Western Securities and other securities firms have released forecasts and conjectures for 2023.

On the whole, the forecasts of securities companies are relatively consistent, and A shares are expected to rise in 2023, but there are obvious differences in the judgment of style.

"Consumption" is a high-frequency word that appears in the annual forecasts of major brokerages.

Many brokerages believe that consumption will become the main driving force for GDP growth in 2023, and the pan-consumption industry may become an important area of ​​excess returns.

　　A small bull market is expected

　　"As the economy is recovering, A-shares are on a medium-term upward trend after bottoming out for the second time. We remain optimistic strategically. At the same time, it is expected that the performance of A-share listed companies will increase slightly in 2023. Risk appetite has been boosted. The index has a high probability of a small bull market. .” China Securities is more optimistic about the performance of A shares in 2023.

　　Since 2023, the three major A-share stock indexes have continued to rise, and the ChiNext Index has approached the 2,400-point mark.

Regarding the overall trend of A shares in 2023, almost all brokerages that have released annual forecasts and guesses remain optimistic.

　　The strategy team of Zhongtai Securities believes that the A-share market index in 2023 has a basis for "going bullish". The most accurate adjective for stock index trends.

From the perspective of rhythm, the market will still be volatile in the first quarter of 2023, but after the second quarter, the market will start a bull market with both corporate performance and valuations rising.

　　According to Liu Gang, a strategic analyst at CICC, some factors will improve marginally in 2023, and the current valuation is still attractive in the medium and long term. Both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are expected to achieve double-digit returns in 2023.

In contrast, Hong Kong stocks have been suppressed for a longer period of time in the early stage and their valuations are lower. As the pressure gradually eases, especially as the fundamentals usher in a reversal, the Hong Kong stock market may have greater recovery flexibility and is expected to outperform A-shares in stages .

　　Unlike the more consistent judgments on the general market trend, brokerages have obvious differences in the style of the A-share market in 2023.

The strategy team of China Merchants Securities believes that the growth style of A-shares in 2023 is expected to be relatively dominant, and compared with the growth style of the large-cap market, the growth of small-cap stocks is expected to be even better.

From the perspective of industry, the "five golden flowers" of the new era represented by high-end manufacturing, medical medicine, new energy, self-controllable, and military equipment are blooming, and the performance of the science and technology innovation index may be relatively dominant.

　　The strategy team of Western Securities pointed out that from a macro perspective, the credit environment has an important impact on changes in investment styles. In 2023, considering that the overall macro liquidity will stabilize and interest rates will rise moderately, the overall style of the market will be more value-oriented. This year is expected to usher in the return of value investing.

　　Investment Opportunities in the Consumption Sector

　　On January 5, the A-share consumer sector represented by food and beverages was active.

A reporter from China Securities Journal sorted out and found that "consumption" is a high-frequency word in the 2023 forecasts of brokers, and brokers are optimistic about the recovery of consumption throughout the year and investment opportunities in related sectors.

　　From a macro perspective, China Securities predicts that consumption will become the main driving force for GDP growth in 2023.

In addition, my country's consumption potential is still there. Under the guidance of common prosperity, there is a broad space for market consumption upgrades, and various consumer groups are growing, which will promote the penetration rate of prepared dishes, low-level drinking, health care products and other categories.

　　Liu Gang predicts that the impact of the epidemic on China's economy is expected to gradually fade in 2023, and the recovery of consumption scenarios, improvement in income expectations, and residents' tendency to release savings are expected to drive a greater recovery in Chinese residents' consumption.

"China's consumer industry has undergone large adjustments in the past two years, with attractive valuations and low institutional positions. As fundamental factors such as demand and costs have improved, in 2023, food and beverage, home appliances, light industry and home furnishing, and social services and other general The consumer sector is expected to become an important area of ​​excess returns."

　　From the perspective of performance growth, the strategy team of China Merchants Securities estimates that consumer services, information technology, and healthcare are expected to become the three major industries with the highest growth in annual performance in 2023, of which the annual growth rate of consumer services is expected to exceed 20%.

　　In the view of the strategy team of Zhongtai Securities, by the middle of 2023 at the latest, there will be a wave of obvious post-epidemic recovery in consumption; from the configuration point of view, after the middle of 2023, with the recovery of the economy, inflation and interest rates, undervalued blue chips It will be relatively dominant, and it is recommended to pay attention to opportunities in multiple sectors including mandatory consumption.