Like a stubborn donkey, the German leading index Dax refused to jump over the 14,000 point mark on the last trading day of the old year.

And in the past first stock market week of the year, the stock market barometer was unleashed, even scratching the mark of 14,500 points, as if it wanted to show a bit of good will after the thoroughly disappointing stock market year.

There are only two problems:

Archibald Preuschat

Editor in Business

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First, the year may be new, but investors' worries are the same: How much will the central banks tighten monetary policy in order to get inflation under control?

In Germany, inflation in December at 8.6 percent slipped well below the 10 percent reached in November.

The main reason for this significant decline is the development of energy prices.

In particular, the assumption of the December down payment by the state had a price-dampening effect, because many private households received natural gas and district heating at "free tariffs", argue the analysts at DZ Bank.

Second: Even if the Dax closed the first stock market week of the year with a plus of a good 4 percent, the mood on Wall Street is not nearly as good.

There, the Dow Jones Industrial looks set to lose a week – albeit a small one – if there are no price fireworks on Friday after the editorial deadline.

And the monetary policy of the Fed is the measure of all things in the markets.

Positive news from the US labor market should encourage Fed Chair Jerome Powell to pursue a tight monetary policy.

highs a year ago

It's been around a year since many stock indices hit their all-time highs.

And the analysts at DZ Bank question whether these levels can be reached again in the medium term.

Monetary and coronavirus policies are likely to continue to weigh on stock markets as headwinds for share prices, and rising interest rates limit a valuation recovery.

It would take multiple times earnings growth in each case than consensus currently expects to propel prices to early 2022 levels.

So it will probably remain individual stocks that investors enjoy, such as Fresenius, which made strong gains in the first week of the stock market after the analysts at UBS raised their price target by EUR 2 to EUR 32.50 and confirmed their buy recommendation.