On Tuesday, January 3, the Russian currency shows mixed dynamics on the Moscow Exchange.

During the opening of trading, the dollar rose by 2.7% - to 71.8 rubles, and the euro - by 1.2%, to 75.23 rubles.

At the same time, the yuan exchange rate, on the contrary, decreased by 0.12% to 9.9 rubles.

In 2023, one of the key benchmarks for the national currency will be the state of Russia's trade balance.

Oleg Syrovatkin, a leading analyst at the Otkritie Investments global research department, shared this opinion in an interview with RT.

Foreign currency received from exports continues to flow to Russia in significant volumes.

At the same time, business interest in foreign banknotes remains relatively low, as imports have not yet been able to fully recover from the drawdown in the first half of 2022.

Thus, according to the latest data from the Central Bank, from January to September 2022, the export of Russian goods and services exceeded imports by $236.5 billion. This is almost 2.2 times more than in the same period of 2021.

As a result, there is now a significant oversupply of foreign currency on the market, which is supporting the ruble.

“The trade balance of Russia, the dynamics of which has been the main factor for the ruble exchange rate since spring, is likely to remain in surplus.

This is certainly a positive signal for the Russian currency.

However, a noticeable reduction in the surplus may put pressure on the ruble,” said Syrovatkin.

Recall that in the spring of 2022, against the backdrop of large-scale Western sanctions against Russia, the exchange rates of the dollar, euro and yuan on the Moscow Exchange briefly rose above 121, 132 and 23 rubles, respectively - the maximum values ​​in history.

However, already in the summer, against the background of an increased trade surplus, the indicators for the first time in more than seven years fell to 50.01, 52.7 and 7.5 rubles.

Nevertheless, by the end of 2022, the value of the American, European and Chinese currencies returned to the levels of 69.9, 74.3 and 9.91 rubles.

This happened as a result of some reduction in exports and a gradual increase in imports.

“Now the rate has stabilized, although there are slight fluctuations.

But we are talking about the fact that we are increasing imports.

After all, our exchange rate is floating and depends on the situation with the balance of payments - how much money leaves the country, to pay for imports, including how much comes as a result of the export of our products, what capital operations we have, ”explained Finance Minister Anton Siluanov at the end of December. in an interview with the TV channel "Russia 24".

Under the new rule

In addition to the state of the trade and payment balances, in 2023 the restart of the budget rule may have some impact on the ruble, Oleg Syrovatkin believes.

Previously, within the framework of this mechanism, the state directed oil and gas windfalls (money received from the sale of oil at a price higher than $44.2 per barrel) not for current spending of the treasury, but for the purchase of foreign currency in the National Welfare Fund (NWF).

The authorities have used this practice for several years to protect the budget and the ruble from fluctuations in oil prices.

Thus, with the high cost of raw materials, the Ministry of Finance purchased more dollars and euros for the National Welfare Fund and thus put artificial pressure on the ruble.

If the cost of energy resources decreased, the department, on the contrary, reduced the volume of purchases or even began to sell foreign currency.

As a result, the demand for foreign banknotes fell, and the ruble strengthened.

Meanwhile, in the spring of 2022, the Ministry of Finance suspended the budget rule due to large-scale Western sanctions, the blocking of almost half of Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves, and a sharp depreciation of the ruble.

At that moment, it was assumed that all oil and gas revenues that would previously have gone to the NWF would be spent on supporting the economy.

However, as the situation on the financial market stabilized, the ruble was able to noticeably strengthen, which began to negatively affect budget revenues.

Against this background, for some weakening of the national currency, the authorities decided to restart the budget rule from 2023, but with some adjustments.

Now, instead of dollars and euros, the authorities will buy mainly yuan for the NWF.

“The Ministry of Finance used to put excess profits from oil and gas into foreign currency, into the National Welfare Fund, and so on, within the framework of the budget rule.

Now foreign currency is toxic, but we are ready to do this in order to influence the course (invest money. -

RT

) in the currency of friendly countries.

And through the currency of friendly countries, through cross-rates against the dollar and the euro, it will be possible to regulate the value of the dollar and the euro against the ruble through such a ratio,” Finance Minister Anton Siluanov explained earlier.

  • RIA News

  • © Pavel Bednyakov

According to First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov, for Russian companies and the country's economy as a whole, the most convenient dollar value is in the range of 70-80 rubles.

Nevertheless, as Siluanov emphasized, the authorities do not plan to target the exchange rate around a certain value, but intend to ensure the predictability of fluctuations in the foreign exchange market.

“This is important both for our participants in foreign economic activity, and for people, so that we do not encounter any high fluctuations in the exchange rate - first in one direction, then in the other ... the budget rule will be activated, and the budget rule is like an anchor to stabilize exchange rate fluctuations.

This is also very important.

And for us, and for the budget, and for business, it is not so much the exchange rate that is important, but the confidence that there will be no sharp changes in these ratios,” Siluanov emphasized.

Currency corridor

As Alexey Fedorov, an analyst at Teletrade, told RT, in 2023, foreign exchange market participants will continue to closely monitor the situation in Ukraine.

In addition, the beginning of a global recession may become a determining factor for the ruble.

Experts from the UN and the World Bank have previously warned about the possibility of such a scenario.

“This year may become a crisis for the world economy.

In the event of a cyclical decline in global GDP by 2-3%, we may see another decline in oil prices.

This, together with the current restrictions of the West on the export of raw materials from Russia, may become an argument in favor of the weakening of the ruble, ”explained Fedorov.

  • Gettyimages.ru

  • © Bob Cuthill

According to the expert, with such a development of events in the first half of 2023, the dollar exchange rate can rise to 85-95 rubles, the euro exchange rate - up to 95-100 rubles, and the yuan exchange rate - up to 11.5-12 rubles.

However, already in the second half of the year, the values ​​should drop to the levels of 80-85, 85-90 and 10.7-11.5 rubles, respectively, the analyst is sure.

Meanwhile, other experts interviewed by RT adhere to more optimistic estimates.

Thus, according to the forecast of Dmitry Babin, an expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments, over the next 12 months, the dollar exchange rate will fluctuate in the corridor of 70–80 rubles, the euro exchange rate in the range of 74.5–85 rubles, and the yuan exchange rate will be close to 10 -11.4 rubles.

According to Oleg Syrovatkin, during the year the value of the dollar will mainly remain in the range of 70-75 rubles, and by the end of December it will stabilize around the mark of 74 rubles.

The euro exchange rate by this moment can be about 78.4 rubles, and the yuan exchange rate - 10.6 rubles.

Anatoly Aksakov, Chairman of the State Duma Committee on the Financial Market, does not expect significant fluctuations in the foreign exchange market either.

“At the beginning of the sanctions, there were forecasts that the dollar would rise to 200 rubles, but this never happened.

Now the value is near the 70 ruble mark, and in the summer it even dropped below 60 rubles, which hit our exporters and some organizations ... It is not profitable for us to have a strong ruble, but it is also disadvantageous for it to be weak.

It is important that it be stable... In the long run, the exchange rate in the range of 72-75 rubles is an acceptable value for us.

Approximately in this range, it will remain, based on the state of the Russian economy in which we are, ”Aksakov said in an interview with RT.