Sino-Singapore Jingwei, January 3rd (Guo Jinjia) At 24:00 on the 3rd, the first round of adjustment window for domestic refined oil prices in 2023 will open.
The agency predicts that the price of domestic refined oil is facing a "good start", and it will cost about 9.5 yuan more to fill up a 50-liter box of 92# gasoline.
The recent trend of crude oil has shown a trend of volatility and upward trend.
China announced that it will implement a proactive fiscal policy in 2023 to support economic recovery, and investors' optimism about the outlook for China's energy demand boosted oil prices.
The United States announced the repurchase of strategic oil reserves, as some parts of the United States were affected by extreme weather, which led to a decline in production, and the decline in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories exceeded market expectations, all of which provided impetus for oil prices.
But on the other hand, economic recession fears and lower US stock markets also limited the rebound space of oil prices.
In terms of crude oil, in the early morning of December 31, 2022, Beijing time, WTI crude oil futures for February closed up $1.86, or 2.37%, to $80.26 per barrel.
Brent crude oil futures for March closed up $2.45, or 2.93%, at $85.91 a barrel.
According to the analysis of Longzhong Information, due to the impact of the rapid spread of the epidemic, the downstream inventory replenishment is not obvious before the New Year's Day, the overall demand for gasoline and diesel is showing weakness, and the price decline still exists.
In 2022, the cost of crude oil is high, diesel oil has once reached the wholesale price limit, and most of the main annual profits have been completed, and there is still a shortage. The new year's "good start" of refined oil may be just around the corner.
According to the data monitoring model of Zhuo Chuang Information, as of the close of December 29, 2022, that is, the ninth working day of the current pricing cycle of domestic refined oil products, the change rate of reference crude oil is 4.95%, and the price increase of gasoline and diesel is expected to increase by 240 yuan / ton, converted into price increases, the prices of 92# gasoline, 95# gasoline and 0# diesel will increase by 0.19 yuan, 0.20 yuan and 0.20 yuan per liter respectively.
According to Jinlianchuang's calculations, as of the ninth working day on December 30, 2022, the average price of reference crude oil is US$79.46/barrel, with a change rate of 3.51%, and the corresponding domestic retail price of gasoline and diesel should be increased by 240 yuan/ton.
According to the principle of "ten working days", the price adjustment window for this round is 24:00 on January 3, 2023.
This means that entering 2023, the retail price of domestic refined oil products will be raised as scheduled in the first price adjustment window.
Jin Lianchuang said that due to the recent correction of crude oil, it is expected that the final price adjustment range may still be slightly narrowed, and the final range may be around 220 yuan/ton.
According to the Sino-Singapore Jingwei combing, domestic refined oil products will undergo 24 rounds of adjustments in 2022, and will end with a "three consecutive declines" at the end of the year.
The overall price of gasoline has been raised by 550 yuan/ton, and the price of diesel has been raised by 530 yuan/ton, showing a pattern of "13 up, 10 down, 1 stranded".
According to the principle of "ten working days", the next round of price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on January 17, 2023.
According to the analysis of Longzhong Information, stimulated by the correction of the high level of crude oil, the change rate of crude oil corresponding to the retail price has been lowered for three consecutive rounds, and the retail price of gasoline and diesel has fallen by as much as 1,050-1,095 yuan/ton, and the prices from raw materials to finished products are under pressure.
As the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, some middlemen have taken the opportunity to replenish their warehouses and are bullish on the post-holiday market. However, due to the impact of the rapid spread of the epidemic, it is estimated that demand will hardly change significantly.
Looking forward to the market outlook, Jinlianchuang believes that crude oil may maintain a narrow range of volatility in the short term, and the retail price increase will soon be realized, and the news may remain moderate and positive in the short term.
The demand for gasoline and diesel is slightly different, and the main business is actively catching up with sales. It is expected that the domestic oil price rebound will be slightly insufficient in the short term. Affected by the demand side, the gasoline market may be slightly stronger than diesel.
(Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)
All rights reserved by Sino-Singapore Jingwei. Without written authorization, no unit or individual may reprint, extract or use in other ways.