[Explanation] Looking back on 2022, how will China's property market perform?
[Text] A few days ago, the Middle Finger Research Institute released the top ten keywords for the property market in 2022.
Among them, "guaranteed housing", "support for rigid and improved housing needs", "debt default", "housing for housing and not for speculation" are all included.
[Subtitle] What are the key words for China's property market in 2022?
[Text] Huang Yu, Executive Vice President of the Middle Finger Research Institute
At the end of each year, the Middle Finger Research Institute releases the top ten key words of the year. The top ten key words for 2022 include: real estate is a pillar industry, guaranteed housing, supporting rigid demand and improved housing demand, as well as urban investment support, debt default, The 16 financial articles, the "three arrows" and the fact that housing is not for speculation, renting and purchasing simultaneously, including new models of development, these are the ten important keywords.
[Subtitles] How are real estate companies doing in 2022?
[Text] In 2022, China's real estate market will be cold.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, as of November 2022, both the sales area and sales volume of China's real estate market have dropped by more than 20%.
How are real estate companies doing under the "cold winter"?
[Concurrent] Huang Yu, executive vice president of the Middle Finger Research Institute
According to the monitoring of the transaction area of 100 cities by the China Finger Research Institute, especially the transaction area of residential buildings, it has dropped by more than 30%, especially the top 100 companies have dropped by more than 40% on average.
So in fact, judging from this figure, real estate companies have indeed had a bad time in the past year.
In the past, some enterprises with high leverage and high debt actually defaulted on some debts, and there were some thunderstorms, which greatly affected the ability of their enterprises to continue to operate.
The second aspect, in fact, we can see that the scale of companies with more than 100 billion yuan has also shrunk significantly. From the data monitored by the Middle Finger Research Institute, by the end of this year, it should mean that the number of our companies with more than 100 billion yuan is compared to the previous year. will be reduced by half.
[Subtitle] What are the characteristics of the property market policy in 2022?
[Text] Looking back on 2022, major cities in China will continue to loosen their policies on the property market, among which the loosening of policies such as purchase restrictions and loan restrictions will become the mainstream.
According to the statistics of the Middle Finger Research Institute, there will be more than 300 cities in China in 2022, and more than a thousand easing policies for the property market will be issued.
[Concurrent] Huang Yu, executive vice president of the Middle Finger Research Institute
In many cities, especially some third- and fourth-tier cities, the original unreasonable purchase restrictions have been almost fully liberalized, while second-tier cities have also optimized some of their restrictive policies in the past year.
The second aspect is financial. Our loan interest rate has dropped to a historically low level. The down payment ratio is like some cities, especially some third- and fourth-tier cities, including some second-tier cities. For some reasonable improvement needs, some down payments have also been reduced. Proportion.
There are also some cities that combine some preferential policies such as providing provident funds and some transaction tax rates including some real estate tax rates, etc. These are all part of and continue to support reasonable demand for housing purchases.
[Subtitle] Will house prices drop in 2022?
[Concurrent] Huang Yu, executive vice president of the Middle Finger Research Institute
According to the new housing price index of the 100 cities of the Middle Finger Research Institute, it should be said that after a lapse of 7 years, there should be a cumulative decline of this kind for the first time, and the second-hand housing price index has also experienced a cumulative decline.
Judging from the performance of different cities, the relative price of first-tier cities is still relatively strong, while the differentiation of second-tier cities is more obvious. Some second-tier cities, such as some popular second-tier cities in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, should perform relatively well. .
For some cities in the central region, such as Zhengzhou, Chongqing, etc., the setback in housing prices is quite severe.
Most of the third- and fourth-tier cities have experienced relatively large house price reductions this year.
Reporter Liu Chao reports from Beijing
Responsible editor: [He Sanli]