In 2022, the real estate policy will enter a easing cycle. Under the guidance of the general tone of "housing to live in, not speculation", the regulatory authorities have issued favorable policies many times, from supporting demand to supporting enterprises. Measures to free up space.

  According to the statistics of the Middle Finger Research Institute, as of December 26, more than 330 provinces, cities (counties) across the country have issued more than a thousand loose policies for the property market, reaching the peak in recent years.

  Judging from the policies issued by various places, the policies mainly involve optimizing the purchase restriction policy, reducing the down payment ratio and mortgage interest rate, increasing the loan amount of provident fund, issuing house purchase subsidies, reducing the sales restriction period, and reducing transaction taxes. At the same time, the mortgage interest rate in many places has dropped to historic lows.

The second-hand housing transaction process is also being simplified. For example, Shenzhen, Nanjing and other places have promoted the "transfer with mortgage" model, and Beijing has tried the "serial order" business for stock housing transactions, which is conducive to opening up the transaction chain and reducing replacement costs.

More than 300 provinces, cities (counties) across the country have issued more than a thousand policies

  Since the beginning of 2022, demand-side policies have continued to be adjusted and optimized.

  In terms of cost reduction, in 2022, the central bank will cut interest rates three times, and the LPR with a period of more than 5 years will be lowered by 35 basis points.

At the same time, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission lowered the lower limit of mortgage interest rates several times. In May, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission made it clear that the lower limit of the first house commercial personal housing loan interest rate was adjusted to not be lower than the market quotation rate for loans of the corresponding period minus 20 basis points; The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission has successively released heavy positive news, and gradually relaxed the lower limit of interest rates for first-home commercial personal housing loans in some cities.

  According to the monitoring data of the China Finger Research Institute, as of now, 30 cities have lowered the first-home loan interest rate to below 4%, including Yangjiang, Qingyuan, Yunfu, Zhanjiang, Jining, Wuhan, Guiyang, Jiangmen, Yichang, Xiangyang, Tianjin, Baotou, Fuyang , Shijiazhuang, Qinhuangdao, Kunming, Dalian, Dali, Luzhou, Anqing, Enshi, Wenzhou, Ruian, Yueqing, Zhoushan, Quanzhou, Huanggang, Zhuzhou, and Kaiping.

  Loan interest rates in some cities have dropped to historical lows. The first-tier commercial loan interest rates in Shijiazhuang and Wenzhou in the second-tier cities are currently as low as 3.8%, and the first-tier commercial loan interest rates in Qingyuan and Zhuzhou in the third-tier and fourth-tier cities are as low as 3.7%.

  At the same time, the central bank once again lowered the interest rate of the first housing provident fund loan by 15 basis points after 7 years. From October 1, 2022, the interest rate of the first housing provident fund loan for more than 5 years will drop to 3.1%.

  In terms of tax reduction, in September, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation pointed out that taxpayers who sell their own houses and repurchase houses in the market within one year after the sale of their current houses will be given tax refunds for the personal income tax they have paid on the sale of their current houses .

Among the local regulatory policies, Wuxi, Shenyang and other cities have lowered the value-added tax exemption period for personal housing transfers from 5 years to 2 years, and more than 100 cities have issued deed tax subsidies and reduced deed tax rates.

  At the same time, in terms of lowering the threshold, since 2022, more than 300 provinces, cities (counties) across the country have introduced more than a thousand policies, including optimizing the purchase restriction policy, reducing the down payment ratio, and increasing the loan amount of the provident fund, etc., and the core first- and second-tier cities by the end of the year. The policies of cities such as Hangzhou, Chengdu, Xi'an, Nanjing, Wuhan, and Beijing continued to be adjusted.

  On the supply side, entering November, a number of important policies have been implemented, and the support of supply-side policies has also increased significantly.

On the 11th, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly issued Document No. 254 "Notice on Doing a Good Job of Financial Support for the Steady and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market", which involves maintaining the stability and order of real estate financing, actively providing financial services for "guaranteed delivery of buildings", and actively cooperating There are a total of 16 specific measures in 6 aspects, including doing a good job in risk management of troubled real estate companies, protecting the legitimate rights and interests of housing finance consumers in accordance with the law, periodically adjusting some financial management policies, and increasing financial support for housing leasing.

  Chen Wenjing, Director of Market Research of the Index Business Department of the China Index Research Institute, pointed out that the core logic of the policy lies in: first, to provide financing support to real estate companies, support the extension of debts of real estate companies, ease the financial pressure of enterprises, and stabilize the expectations of market players; second, to provide support for personal home purchase credit , driving the recovery of market sales; the third is "guaranteed delivery of buildings", which solves the problem of off-plan housing delivery, boosts market sentiment, and stabilizes the confidence of home buyers.

In the future, the financial pressure of enterprises may be alleviated to a certain extent, realizing the exchange of time for space; the policy support on the demand side is expected to be further strengthened, and the activity and enthusiasm of market sales will be enhanced; the funds and policies of "guaranteed housing delivery" will be accelerated to stabilize home buyers expected.

  At the same time, the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced on November 28 to adjust and optimize 5 measures in terms of equity financing of real estate companies, which will be implemented from now on.

These include: resume mergers and acquisitions and supporting financing of listed real estate companies; resume refinancing of listed real estate companies and listed real estate companies; adjust and improve the listing policies of real estate companies in overseas markets; further play the role of REITs in revitalizing the stock assets of real estate companies; actively play private equity investment Fund role.

  According to incomplete statistics from "Securities Daily", as of December 25, 32 listed real estate companies have planned equity refinancing, of which 8 H-share real estate companies have allotment financing, and 24 A-share real estate companies have issued non-public offerings of stocks Financing announcement.

What space is there for property market regulation and control policies?

  It is worth mentioning that recently, senior leaders have repeatedly emphasized the importance of real estate, and preventing and resolving real estate risks has also become an important content in 2023.

  Vice Premier Liu He of the State Council delivered a written speech at the fifth round of China-EU Business Leaders and Former Senior Officials Dialogue on December 15.

Liu He pointed out that real estate is a pillar industry of the national economy. In response to the current downside risks, we have introduced some policies and are considering new measures to improve the industry's balance sheet and guide market expectations and confidence to pick up.

  The responsible comrades of the Central Finance Office said that we should fully realize the importance of the real estate industry.

The real estate chain is long and involves a wide range of areas. It is a pillar industry of the national economy, accounting for about 7% of GDP, and the construction industry accounts for 14%. 60% of household assets, real estate loans plus loans with real estate as collateral, accounted for 39% of the total loan balance, which has an important impact on financial stability, and is an industry with strong spillover and systemic importance.

At the same time, the responsible comrades of the Central Finance Office pointed out: "There are still some restrictive policies that hinder the release of consumer demand in areas such as housing consumption, and these consumption potentials must be released."

  In this regard, Zhao Xiuchi, a professor at the Capital University of Economics and Business and vice-chairman of the Beijing Real Estate Law Society, told The Paper that the current policies implemented in different cities have adjusted the policy of restricting purchases and loans, but they still cannot meet the needs of the housing consumption release in the market. The outdated purchase restriction and loan restriction policies urgently need to be adjusted, and it is suggested that the liberalization of purchase restriction and loan restriction can be greater and more precise.

  So, what room is there for the follow-up property market regulation policy?

  Zhao Xiuchi believes that all localities should further sort out purchase restrictions and loan restrictions in combination with population, talent, and industrial policies, and increase support for rigid needs and improved needs; pre-tax deduction for house purchases and rentals that are comprehensively remitted should be calculated for each employee, while It is not that only one person in a family can deduct the deduction; the pre-tax deduction for renting and buying a house should be treated equally. At present, the maximum deduction for renting a house in Beijing is 1,500 yuan, and only 1,000 yuan can be deducted for buying a house with a loan. The down payment and loan interest rates should be further reduced; the policy of recognizing houses but not loans should be implemented; ordinary housing standards should be dynamically adjusted, and housing prices and housing standards should be redefined; According to the actual situation of the project, make corresponding adjustments to the lease term or lease-sale policy.

  Chen Wenjing pointed out that it is expected that in 2023, under the keynote of "housing, housing and not speculation", there will be room for further optimization of policies at both ends of the supply and demand, and the policy strength is expected to be further strengthened. Core first- and second-tier cities, especially core second-tier cities, will have greater room for policy optimization, such as Restrictions on purchases, “recognizing housing and subscribing for loans” continue to be adjusted, and expectations for policy optimization in first-tier cities are also increasing. There is room for lowering mortgage interest rates, lowering down payment ratios, and lowering taxes and fees; on the enterprise side, reasonable financing needs will continue to be supported. The financing chain of real estate enterprises is expected to be further smoothed, and the capital of enterprises is expected to be improved. In particular, the financial support of high-quality real estate enterprises will continue to be strengthened; More substantive progress will jointly promote the improvement of home buyers' expectations.

How will the market go in 2023, and when will the property market stabilize?

  Regarding the outlook for the market outlook, the China Index Research Institute estimates that the characteristics of the national real estate market in 2023 are: "sales volume and price are stabilizing, the adjustment trend of new construction area is difficult to change, and investment may continue to decline."

  According to the report of the China Index Research Institute, in the short term, the peak of the domestic epidemic infection has not yet ended, the macroeconomic recovery is relatively slow, and it will take time for home buyers’ income expectations and home ownership confidence to recover. It is expected that the sales market will stabilize the fastest or in the second quarter of next year.

  According to the report of the Middle Finger Research Institute, the performance of the property market in different cities will continue to diverge in 2023.

Among them, there are certain adjustments in policies in first-tier cities in 2023, the transaction area of ​​commercial housing is expected to increase steadily, and the market recovery in Beijing and Shanghai may gradually appear.

It predicts that the new housing markets in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen may be stable as a whole, and the enthusiasm for housing purchases to enter the market is expected to increase under policy optimization.

The adjustment trend of the new housing market in Guangzhou will be the most obvious in 2022. There is a lot of room for policy optimization in 2023, which is expected to drive the market to gradually improve.

  There is a lot of room for policy optimization in second-tier cities, overall volume growth and stable prices, core second-tier city markets may gradually recover, and some cities may face upward pressure on housing prices.

The report shows that in Wuhan, Chongqing, Zhengzhou, Tianjin and other cities affected by the epidemic and other factors in 2022, the transaction area of ​​new houses will drop sharply. In 2023, there is room for further optimization of policies in some cities. The clearing cycle of the salable area in the city is long, and the upward momentum of housing prices is weak; the relaxation of policies in Hangzhou, Chengdu, and Xi’an has been implemented, and there is still room for optimization in the future. It is expected that market demand will gradually release after the epidemic, and housing prices may face certain upward pressure.

In addition, cities with weak urban fundamentals have little room for policy optimization, and it will take time for the market to stabilize and recover, and the market may still be in a period of consolidation at the bottom.

  Market volume and price in third- and fourth-tier cities may continue to decline, and inventory in many cities is relatively large, and housing prices are still facing certain adjustment pressures.

In 2023, when the situation of epidemic prevention and control is gradually improving, the market is expected to gradually stabilize and recover under the strong fundamentals of some third- and fourth-tier cities in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta.

However, the sell-off period in many cities exceeds 20 months, and the price adjustment trend may continue.