Stockbrokers are hibernating.

Volume is so low it makes you wonder if anyone is actually trading stocks right now.

But what do investors actually dream of when they are already hibernating peacefully?

Maybe from rising prices, or maybe the Christmas rally, also known as the year-end rally?

Franz Nestler

Editor in Business.

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This is traditionally understood to mean price increases in December.

The common stockbroker prefers to invent terms for it, so that it sounds snappier - and of course it can also be sold better.

Just like Santa Claus brings the presents, the New Year's rally should bring price gains again at the end of the year.

The only problem: Unfortunately, there is nothing to it.

But in every fairy tale there should also be the famous spark of truth - is that also the case here?

Last year one could already speak of a Christmas rally.

The Dax gained at least 5.7 percent, albeit accompanied by strong fluctuations.

But this year there was absolutely no sign of that: The Dax lost 3.5 percent in December to currently around 13,972 points and even fell below the psychologically important mark of 14,000 points.

So there it is one to one.

If you look back longer, this volatility of the Dax is directly confirmed: since 2010 there have been price losses in six years, in another seven years there have been price gains.

Deriving the idea of ​​an annual rally from this seems daring at the very least.

But the traders are not deterred by this.

The year 2018, for example, was legendary: the Christmas rally was canceled back then too.

For many analysts, the culprit was quickly found: Jerome Powell, head of the US Federal Reserve today as then.

Back then – and it really sounds like a long time ago – he announced a rate hike of 0.25 percentage points to a corridor between 2.25 and 2.5 percent.

In order to reassure critics, he then announced only two interest rate hikes for 2019 instead of the three planned.

Markets were not at all happy with that at the time, with some analysts running the headline that Powell killed the Christmas rally the way the Grinch steals Christmas presents.

But let's be honest: can you steal something that doesn't actually exist?

So should the idea of ​​a Christmas rally be mothballed straight away?

Not quite.

For example, between 2003 and 2010, the Dax price rose steadily in December.

But then it's like in a fairy tale: if something sounds too good to be true, it usually is.