When will China's "buy, buy, buy" come back?

(Year-end Economic Observation) When will China's "buy, buy, buy" come back?

　　China News Agency, Beijing, December 26 (Reporter Chen Su) In 2022, China's consumption under the influence of the epidemic will continue to show a weak trend.

With the adjustment and optimization of China's epidemic prevention and control policies, Chinese officials recently proposed that the recovery and expansion of consumption should be given priority.

How can China restore consumption?

When will the "buy, buy, buy" scene return?

　　According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, from January to November, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China was 39.919 billion yuan (RMB, the same below), a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%. %.

　　"The consumption of Chinese residents is mainly hit by the new crown pneumonia epidemic." Zhang Yansheng, chief researcher of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said in an interview with a reporter from China News Agency that in the past three years, the consumption content of Chinese residents has mainly been on daily necessities and upgraded consumption. Much lower than normal.

　　Li Xunlei, chief economist of Zhongtai Securities, said that the reason for weak consumption is that on the one hand, it is affected by the Ukrainian crisis, the epidemic, and global high inflation, which have caused the decline in external demand and the weakening of domestic real estate. The decline in economic growth will lead to a decline in the growth rate of residents' income.

On the other hand, due to the weakening of expectations, household deposits have increased significantly. For example, household deposits increased by 2.25 trillion yuan in November alone, and consumption decreased accordingly.

　　The data shows that in 2021, China's final consumption expenditure will contribute 65.4% to economic growth, which is the first driving force of economic growth.

Therefore, the recovery of consumption is of great significance to the steady recovery of China's economy.

　　"Domestic demand is the top priority at this stage." Yang Chang, chief analyst of Zhongtai Securities Research Institute, told reporters that under the disturbance of the epidemic, China's economy has experienced a decline in consumption growth and consumption willingness to be balanced.

At this stage, the introduction of policies and measures aimed at domestic demand is an important means to stabilize China's economic fundamentals in the short term and ensure that the economy "seeks progress while maintaining stability."

　　Since the beginning of December, China has adjusted and optimized the epidemic prevention and control policies, and the offline consumption scene has gradually recovered, and the popularity of offline consumption in some cities has gradually increased.

When can China's consumption reproduce the "buy, buy, buy" scene?

　　Fu Jiaqi, a statistician from the Department of Trade and Foreign Economic Cooperation of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, said that the current pressure on sales in the Chinese market is mainly due to the short-term impact of the epidemic, and the trend of improving quality and efficiency in the consumer market has not changed.

With the implementation of further optimized epidemic prevention and control measures, a series of policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption will gradually take effect, the resilience of the consumer market will continue to show, residents' consumption demand will continue to be released, and market sales are expected to recover steadily.

　　Su Jian, director of the National Economic Research Center of Peking University, said that consumption will definitely recover slowly from this year to the beginning of next year, and residents' lives will gradually return to normal.

　　Zhang Yansheng also believes that it is expected that Chinese consumption will gradually normalize before and after the Spring Festival. However, due to the three-year outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, some changes have taken place in the consumption behavior of Chinese residents, such as the habit of online consumption and the decrease in the desire to upgrade consumption. Wait, consumption will not quickly return to the same level as before the epidemic.

　　In the face of weak consumption, China's top management attaches great importance to it, and intensively introduced various measures to boost consumption and promote domestic demand.

For example, in mid-December, China issued the "Strategic Planning Outline for Expansion of Domestic Demand (2022-2035)", proposing that final consumption is the lasting driving force of economic growth, and that consumption should be comprehensively promoted and consumption upgrading accelerated.

The Central Economic Work Conference held recently proposed to focus on expanding domestic demand next year.

The recovery and expansion of consumption should be given priority.

Enhance consumption capacity, improve consumption conditions, and innovate consumption scenarios.

Increase the income of urban and rural residents through multiple channels, and support consumption such as housing improvement, new energy vehicles, and elderly care services.

　　Zhang Yansheng said that to boost consumption at present, we must pay attention to three "urgent tasks". One is to increase the ratio of per capita disposable income to GDP (gross domestic product) is a top priority, and to further increase residents' income; the second is to increase the ratio of residents' consumption to GDP. Proportion is the top priority. To make residents have money to spend, they must also dare to spend money, and to solve the worries of residents' consumption. Third, the doubling of the middle-income group is a top priority, from 400 million middle-income groups to 800 million middle-income groups.

　　He said that at present, in response to the long-term changes in the consumption habits of residents caused by the epidemic, it is necessary to carry out consumer education and take some short-term boosting and guiding measures.

In addition, it is necessary to create a legalized consumption environment, implement the construction of a unified national market, a high-standard market system, and a high-level socialist market system, continuously improve the consumption environment, consumption experience, and improve residents' consumption confidence and expectations.

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