Chinanews.com, December 26th (Zhongxin Finance Gong Hongyu) What trends will the economy have in 2023?

How should future policy be exerted?

At the "China Wealth Management 50 People Forum · 2022 Annual Conference" held from December 23 to 25, Yin Yanlin, Lou Jiwei, Zhu Guangyao and other guests spoke heavily on hot issues in economic development in 2023.

China Wealth Management 50 People Forum · 2022 Annual Meeting.

Photo provided by the organizer

Yin Yanlin: my country's economy has survived the most difficult moment

　　Yin Yanlin, deputy director of the Office of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, pointed out that my country's economy has survived the most difficult moment.

Looking forward to next year, economic development will face many difficulties and challenges, but favorable factors for development will increase, and the overall economic operation is expected to improve.

　　Yin Yanlin mentioned that it is necessary to grasp eight key directions: first, vigorously boost market confidence; second, restore and expand consumption; third, effectively drive social investment; fourth, promote the healthy development of the real estate industry; fifth, restart the development of traditional service industries; The sixth is to accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system, the seventh is to make greater efforts to attract and utilize foreign capital, and the eighth is to effectively prevent and resolve major risks.

Lou Jiwei: A higher economic growth target should be set in 2023, such as more than 5%

　　The "14th Five-Year Plan" proposes that by 2035, the per capita GDP will reach the level of moderately developed countries.

The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China made it clear that by 2035, "per capita GDP will reach a new level and reach the level of moderately developed countries."

　　Lou Jiwei, the former minister of the Ministry of Finance, pointed out that "when the '14th Five-Year Plan' proposed this goal, my country's per capita GDP had just reached 10,000 U.S. dollars. To reach the bottom line of moderately developed countries in 2035, the per capita GDP must reach 20,000 U.S. dollars. To double, the average annual growth rate of GDP must reach 4.7%. From the perspective of expanding employment in the short term and realizing long-term goals, a higher economic growth target should be set in 2023, such as more than 5%.

Zhu Guangyao: China's economy will quickly return to a growth rate of 5%-6% in 2023

　　Zhu Guangyao, former vice-minister of the Ministry of Finance, pointed out that by fully implementing the economic work guidelines determined at the Political Bureau meeting of the Central Committee, China's economy will definitely improve in 2023 and quickly return to a growth rate of 5%-6%.

　　He stressed that we must attach importance to the support of the real economy.

Industrial policies should be developed and safe at the same time, science and technology policies should focus on self-improvement and self-reliance, and social policies should "secure" the bottom line of people's livelihood. These major policies must be coordinated, more efforts must be made to attract foreign direct investment, and high-level foreign investment must be promoted. Openness, insist on hard work, stimulate the vitality of the whole society to do business and start a business, so that cadres dare to do things, local governments dare to break through, enterprises dare to do things, and the masses dare to pioneer.

Ning Jizhe: China's economic growth contributes about 30% to world economic growth

　　Ning Jizhe, former deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, predicted that next year, with the implementation of macro policies, the end of the epidemic period and the recovery of the consumer market, my country's economy will usher in a pick-up in materialized development and restorative growth.

China's economic growth contributes about 30% to world economic growth, and China's recovery growth will also slow down the extent of the global economic recession.

If the Chinese economy grows by 6%, the world economy will grow by nearly 2%.

　　Ning Jizhe believes that Chinese-style modernization cannot follow the old path of some European and American countries to industrialize first, then de-industrialize, then re-industrialize, and then re-manufacture. We must firmly grasp the real economy in our hands, and effectively reverse the tendency of de-industrialization and de-industrialization , guide all kinds of factor resources, especially financial resources, to gather in the real economy, and promote the manufacturing industry to shift from quantitative expansion to quality and quantitative improvement.

At the same time, promote the deep integration of modern service industry with advanced manufacturing industry and modern agriculture.

Liu Yuanchun: Next year's economic growth will show a recovery trend of "low in the beginning, high in the middle, and stable in the end"

　　Liu Yuanchun, president of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, said that under an optimistic scenario, the growth rate in 2023 can reach a level of about 6%, and under an unfavorable scenario, the economic growth rate will be about 4.8%.

Next year's economic growth rate will show a recovery trend of "low in the beginning, high in the middle, and stable in the end".

It is recommended to set China's macroeconomic target in the range of 5%-6% in 2023.

　　Liu Yuanchun mentioned that in 2023, investment is still the key to supporting the economic momentum, and infrastructure is still a key point.

However, it is obvious that the infrastructure needs to be completely transformed from traditional infrastructure to new infrastructure. It has been doing this for many years, and it will be concentrated in this direction next year.

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