Passenger flow picks up, consumption recovers, and foreign capital is firmly optimistic about China's economy

　　Original title: Foreign capital is firmly optimistic about China's economy as passenger flow picks up and consumption recovers!

The industry with the best performance this year turned out to be it, continue to increase positions!

　　China's economy is gradually recovering from the initial pains of optimizing and adjusting the epidemic prevention policy and regaining vitality.

Relevant reports and data show that the passenger flow of catering tourism in many key cities has begun to pick up.

Well-known foreign-funded institutions such as Morgan Stanley and UBS expressed optimism about China's economic recovery after the epidemic, and funds from the north are actively increasing positions in the consumption and logistics sectors.

　　Although the overall performance of the A-share market this year is not ideal, there are still some industries that have achieved positive returns throughout the year.

According to Wind data, the airport, coal, and telecommunications industries have increased by more than double digits during the year, and the airport index has risen by 25% year-to-date, becoming the biggest bright spot.

Catering and tourism passenger flow picks up!

　　Beijing and Guangzhou are the two first-tier cities that adjusted their epidemic prevention policies earlier. In recent days, passenger flows in both places have rebounded significantly.

　　According to Wind data, the passenger volume of the Beijing subway has rebounded rapidly since December 19th. On December 23rd, the single-day passenger volume once again exceeded the 3 million mark and reached 3.25 million passengers, which is nearly twice the increase from December 17th. It has increased by four times.

　　The passenger flow of catering in Beijing has rebounded. According to the Beijing News, this weekend, the passenger flow of catering in Beijing has rebounded significantly compared with before, and many restaurants have queued up.

At the same time, a number of catering companies have made full preparations in advance in terms of ingredients and personnel for the upcoming New Year's Day holiday. It is expected that the passenger flow during the New Year's Day holiday will return to 70% to 80% of the same period in previous years.

　　In addition, the popularity of Beijing Universal Studios, a well-known tourist attraction in Beijing, is also picking up.

Relevant data show that the park's passenger flow reached a medium passenger flow level on the 23rd and 24th, and the number of people entering the park in a single day exceeded 20,000 again.

　　This Friday, there were 25,066 inbound passengers at Sanya Airport, higher than the average daily level of 20,000 in mid-December, and quadruple the 5,000 in November.

According to data from Ctrip, hotel reservations by Beijing tourists to Sanya in the past week increased by 30% compared with the same period last year, and increased by 28% from the previous week.

　　The situation in Guangzhou is similar to that of Beijing. The passenger flow of the subway has also rebounded since December 19. On December 23, the passenger flow increased to 3.26 million, double that of December 18.

Judging from the media reports, the passenger flow of catering and tourism in Guangzhou is gradually improving.

　　In other key cities such as Shanghai, offline consumption is also recovering.

On-the-spot visits by brokerage Chinese reporters found that the flow of people in important business districts such as Xintiandi has increased significantly, and some online celebrity stores have seen long queues.

Foreign institutions are optimistic about China's economic recovery after the epidemic

　　Morgan Stanley predicts in the 2023 economic outlook that China will gradually emerge from the epidemic, and the superimposed real estate market will gradually stabilize, which will drive economic recovery.

The agency is more optimistic than market expectations, expecting economic growth to recover to about 5% next year, mainly driven by consumption.

Especially in an optimistic scenario, the impact of the epidemic on China's economy may be withdrawn relatively quickly by the end of this year or early next year.

　　Morgan Stanley believes that consumption will lead the recovery of China's economy next year, especially in the second half of next year. With the release of epidemic prevention and control, after a short-term pain, China's travel and life will basically start in the second quarter of next year. Return to normal, so the annual GDP growth returns to 5%, which is much better than the 3% in 2022.

　　Luo Di, director and asset allocation fund manager of UBS Asset Management (Shanghai), pointed out in his market outlook for next year that in China, infrastructure investment is the main focus of steady growth this year. The slowdown in external demand has dragged down exports. and consumption are under pressure.

As China further optimizes policies related to epidemic prevention and real estate, fiscal policy is expected to maintain the intensity of fiscal expenditure, and there is room and possibility for monetary policy to be further strengthened. The focus may shift more to economic growth, boosting consumption, investment and market confidence.

The epidemic may bring a short-term disturbance, and it should gradually improve after next spring.

Investment opportunities in China next year cannot be ignored.

　　He also believes that Chinese stocks obviously have allocation value, the recovery of stock market sentiment, and the strengthening of policies to stabilize growth will be an important factor in promoting the stock market rebound next year, which is more attractive than U.S. stocks.

Although China's bonds have been pulled back recently, under the current normal monetary policy, they can play a good role in diversifying risks.

A more flexible investment strategy needs to be adopted in the next six months.

The best performing airport segment of the year!

Foreign capital is increasing positions

　　There is still one week to end in 2022, and the performance of the A-share market is basically settled. Let's take a look at the situation this year.

As of the close on December 23, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3045.87 points, down 16.32% year-to-date; the CSI 300 Index closed at 3828.22 points, down 22.51% year-to-date.

　　Despite the poor overall performance, there are bright spots in the market.

The airport, coal, afterimage tourism, oil and gas, precious metals, land transportation, highways, and leisure products sectors have all achieved positive returns this year.

The airport sector, which ranks first, has increased by 25.13% year-to-date. It is quite surprising to have such a performance during the period of repeated epidemics.

　　Based on optimism about China's economic recovery, foreign capital is actively increasing positions.

The data shows that since November, the net purchases of funds from Beijing have accelerated. The net purchases in November were 60.095 billion yuan, and the net purchases since December were 32.112 billion yuan.

　　For some popular post-epidemic recovery stocks, foreign capital has increased their holdings.

Wind statistics show that since mid-November, foreign-funded institutions have continued to increase their positions in China CDFG, and the number of shares held has increased from 192 million shares to 201 million shares, an increase of nearly 5%.

Similar to Shanghai Airport, since December, foreign capital has increased its holdings by 17%, and the latest holdings reached 188 million shares.

(Brokers China)