A survey showed that the number of newly sold private apartments next year will be limited to 250,000 households, down 38% from this year.



Since the first half of this year, as the trend of rising house prices has declined sharply and the housing market has deteriorated, most construction companies have been unable to reduce pre-sale volumes or establish business plans, so next year's private housing supply is expected to show a sluggish trend.



While house prices are falling, pre-sale prices are rising, making it difficult to expect huge market profits if you only receive pre-sale as before, so the polarization phenomenon in which only competitive complexes are selected in the pre-sale market next year is expected to intensify.



According to Yonhap News and Real Estate R114, a survey on sales plans of private construction companies in the top 100 in the construction capability evaluation showed that 258,03 private apartments will be sold at 303 business sites nationwide next year.



This is the amount excluding 50,000 households whose pre-sale time and area have not been confirmed, and even if this is included, it is a 38% decrease compared to this year based on the planned amount and the lowest figure since 2014.



As the construction industry sold only 304,142 homes this year, which is 73% of the original planned volume, some of the volume is expected to be carried over to next year.



Quarterly, the volume decreases towards the second half in the order of 82,01 households in the first quarter, 55,577 households in the second quarter, 39,270 households in the third quarter, and 36,747 households in the fourth quarter.



The number of units for which the sale date has not yet been determined is 44,408 units.



By month, about 28% of the total volume is planned for February, when 25,620 units are scheduled to be sold, and March, when 34,392 units are scheduled to be sold.



September is usually considered the peak season for fall, but due to the Chuseok holiday, the planned supply is not high at 7,257 households.



The concentration of sales scheduled for early next year can be interpreted as the effect that construction companies, who had been waiting for the right time to sell in the rapidly changing market situation since the beginning of this year, transferred the unfinished sales within the year to next year.



Choi Tae-soon, senior researcher at the Real Estate R114 Big Data Research Institute, explained, “Next year, the real estate market instability such as interest rate hikes will continue and unsold housing risks are expected. I did.



By type, redevelopment/reconstruction apartments accounted for the largest share with 125,065 households, or about 48% of the total pre-sale volume.



The number of apartments sold through in-house projects (including subcontracting) was 109,532 units, or 42%.



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There are many notable maintenance projects in Seoul next year.



Raemian La Grande in Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul (Imun District 1, 3,069 households) and Hwigyeong Xidisentia (Hwigyeong District 3, 1,806 households) experienced difficulties in calculating the pre-sale price this year or the sale schedule was postponed from the original plan due to infighting with the association. That's it.



In addition, sales of Jamsil Jinju Reconstruction in Songpa-gu, Seoul (2,678 households), Daejo 1 District, Eunpyeong-gu, Seoul (2,83 households), Gwangmyeong 5R District, Gwangmyeong-si, Gyeonggi-do (2,878 households), Seongnam Middle School District 1, Seongnam-si (1,972 households), etc. The market's attention is also focused on the schedule.



In Gyeonggi, Gwangmyeong-si Gwangmyeong 1R District (3,585 households), Vermontro Gwangmyeong (3,344 households), and Anyang New Town Mansion Samho (2,723 households) in Anyang-si are about to be supplied.



In new towns in the Gyeonggi region, 1,556 households in Unjeong, Paju will be supplied.



In Incheon, following last year, the volume of Geomdan New Town and the volume of urban development stands out.



In Geomdan, 5,971 households announced plans for sale, and through Yonghyeon Hakik urban development, Citi OCL 6 complexes (1,734 households) and Citi OCL 7 complexes (1,478 households) will be supplied.



In the provinces, there are many sales plans for redevelopment and reconstruction apartments, especially in metropolitan cities.



Daeyeon District 3, Nam-gu, Busan (4,488 households), Uam District 1, Nam-gu (2,205 households), and Unam District 3, Buk-gu, Gwangju (3,214 households) are planning to supply.



By construction company, Hyundai E&C (21,126 households) was the place with the largest volume of plans to sell residential facilities such as apartments, officetels, urban living houses, and living accommodations so far next year.



It is followed by GS E&C (21,000 households), POSCO E&C (13,453 households), Samsung C&T (9,971 households), and DL E&C (9,556 households).



An official from a large construction company said, "There are many forecasts that the market situation will be more difficult next year than this year, so we are making a more conservative sales plan."



Next year, the planned sales volume of private apartments by region is 116,682 households (45.2%) in the metropolitan area and 141,321 households (54.8%) in the provinces.



In the metropolitan area, Gyeonggi has the most households with 70,521 households, followed by Seoul with 27,781 households and Incheon with 18,380 households.



In the provinces, Busan is expected to have the largest volume with 27,661 households.



It was followed by 15,435 households in Daegu, 14,656 households in Gyeongnam, 14,442 households in Chungnam, 12,937 households in Gwangju, 12,771 households in Chungbuk, and 10,686 households in Daejeon. .



In the provinces, there is relatively less waiting demand for housing than the metropolitan area, and there are many areas where unsold units accumulate, so it is expected that many business sites will adjust the supply timing.



The pre-sale market, which had been overheated until last year, has significantly declined this year due to interest rate hikes and concerns over economic recession.



As the burden of loan interest due to the high interest rate trend, the high pre-sale price due to the increase in the price of raw materials and labor costs, and concerns about further declines in house prices coincided, the subscription market dynamics also changed markedly from last year.



As of the 14th of this month, the average apartment subscription competition rate nationwide was 7.7 to 1, less than half compared to last year's 19.8 to 1.



The average score for winners also dropped to 21 points, down 13 points from 34 last year.



As concerns about a hard landing in the real estate market and the risk of unsold homes increased, the government hastily announced deregulation measures, such as extending the deadline for disposing of existing houses for the winners of subscriptions, expanding interim payment loan guarantees, and abolishing the residence requirement for non-homeowners to apply for non-priority subscriptions.



As a result, interest in products with a good location and competitive price may increase, but concerns about overdue unsold sales are expected to increase in areas with poor locations or oversupply.



Senior researcher Choi said, "Next year, the pre-sale market is expected to further deepen polarization according to pre-sale prices, size, location, etc."