According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on December 23, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 26.56 yuan/kg, which was 11.8% lower than the 30.13 yuan/kg last Friday (December 16).
The average price this week was 27.86 yuan/kg, down 7.7% from last week's 30.2 yuan/kg.
This week, domestic hog prices showed a downward trend as a whole.
According to the China Pig Network, on December 23, the price of live pigs (external three yuan) was 16.98 yuan/kg, compared with 20.25 yuan/kg last Friday (December 16), a drop of 16.1%.
From the perspective of the week, the average price of live pigs this week was 17.74 yuan/kg, a decrease of 13% compared with the average price of 20.4 yuan/kg last week.
According to the monitoring of Zhuo Chuang Information, on the supply side, large-scale farms continued to lose weight and increase slaughter this week, the proportion of large pigs slaughtered by retail investors decreased, and the average weight of live pig transactions across the country continued to decline.
Zhuo Chuang Information monitored the average trading weight of live pigs across the country to be 125.66 kg, a decrease of 0.50% month-on-month.
On the demand side, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises dropped from a high level this week.
During the week, as the price of pigs fell, the breeding side became more reluctant to sell, and the number of live pigs sold decreased, making it more difficult for slaughter companies to acquire in the second half of the week.
Although the recent demand has been supported by bar pressing and sausage stuffing, the overall demand is difficult to increase due to the sluggish catering consumption, and slaughtering enterprises in some areas have reduced their operations due to lack of workers, resulting in a high operating rate drop.
The average weekly operating rate of key slaughtering enterprises was 31.97%, an increase of 0.33 percentage points from the previous month.
On December 21 this week, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that in view of the recent rapid decline in domestic pig prices, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission recently organized a video conference to listen to the opinions of industry experts and some market institutions, and study how to ensure market supply. Stable price work.
Experts pointed out that the recent rapid decline in hog prices is mainly due to factors such as weaker pork consumption than in previous years and an increase in hog supply at the end of the year.
Experts believe that the current domestic pig production capacity is in an overall reasonable range, and there is no overcapacity. The weak market consumption is temporary, and farmers do not need to worry too much.
Experts suggest that farmers reasonably arrange the rhythm of production and operation, do not panic slaughter, and keep the production capacity of hogs basically stable; pork processing enterprises appropriately increase commercial inventory, expand market demand, and jointly promote the smooth operation of the hog market.
The National Development and Reform Commission attaches great importance to the work of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices in the hog market, and will continue to keep an eye on market supply and demand and price dynamics, and take stock adjustment measures such as purchasing and storage when necessary to promote the long-term healthy development of the hog market.
Ruida Futures believes that from the price point of view, the price of foreign three-yuan hogs continues to fall sharply.
From the perspective of the supply side, the slaughter window before the Spring Festival is shortened, and the breeding end continues to sell. However, the National Development and Reform Commission held a video conference and stated that it will take stockpiling measures to adjust the price of pigs if necessary, which will help alleviate the situation of panic slaughter at the breeding end.
From the demand side, with holidays approaching, the demand for stocking may pick up, which will provide some support for the price of pigs.
Generally speaking, the current supply and demand are both increasing, and the supply pressure is even greater, but the expectation of starting stockpiling and stocking may tighten the loose supply and demand pattern.
Soochow Futures believes that on the supply side, as the end of the year is approaching, in order to fulfill the annual slaughter target of the group farm, the planned volume of slaughter in December will continue to increase. Historically high in the same period; on the demand side, the pickling in the south is coming to an end. After the relaxation of the anti-epidemic policy, the increase in cases and the public's worry have caused concentrated consumption to continue to slump. The supply and demand side presents a loose pattern, and the short-term weakness of pig prices is hard to change.
In the long run, after the impact of the epidemic subsides, demand is expected to recover. The superposition of pig prices in March and April next year corresponds to a relatively low level of sow inventory, and the current piglet replenishment has been suppressed by the decline in pig prices. The backlog of large-weight pigs at the end can be cleared, and the stock weight will drop to a normal level. The price of pigs is expected to rebound in the next year.
Zhuo Chuang Information predicts that next week, in terms of supply, the breeding group has continued to increase the volume in the early stage, and the slaughter weight has dropped to a low level.
Farmers sell in every fall, and the amount of slaughter in the early stage is also more.
In this case, the number of live pigs slaughtered in the second half of the year may decrease in stages, which will have a certain supporting effect on the rise of the market.
On the demand side, the current hog slaughter volume is rising moderately. After the winter solstice and the eve of New Year's Day, there is no lack of possibility of another increase in some areas, and the demand for hogs may show an increase.