Author: Du Chuan

　　As one of the most effective starting points to support the reasonable demand for personal housing loans at present, the last LPR (loan market quotation rate) operation in 2022 will end with "holding the gun".

After the failure of the "interest rate cut" of mortgages, how to further exert efforts to stabilize the demand side of real estate has attracted special attention from all parties.

　　Compared with the impact of the first round of the epidemic in early 2020, this round of real estate market setbacks seems to be more serious: From January to November 2022, the sales area of ​​commercial housing nationwide was 1,212.5 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 23.3%, of which the residential sales area decreased by 26.2%.

The sales of commercial housing were 11,864.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.6%, of which residential sales decreased by 28.4%.

　　Since the second half of 2022, the policy of stabilizing real estate has been continuously increased, but the frequent occurrence of epidemics has largely inhibited the possibility of a stabilization and recovery of the real estate market.

In addition to increasing supply-side support for housing finance and accelerating the implementation of the "Sixteen Financial Measures" and "Three Arrows" policies to support real estate, the management of the housing system should also provide further support from the demand side.

　　According to comprehensive market analysis and recommendations, to stabilize the real estate demand side, restrictive policies that hinder the release of consumer demand should be appropriately loosened, including increasing policy support for rigid and improved housing demand; further adjusting and optimizing restrictions such as "purchase restrictions and loan restrictions" Flexible measures to adjust the down payment ratio, lower the threshold for residents to buy a house, and increase the willingness to buy a house; appropriately lower the interest rate of stock mortgages, and reduce the pressure of loan repayment for those who have already bought houses.

　　Four times in six days "advocate" real estate

　　To stabilize the economy, we must first stabilize the real estate.

　　Recently, high-level and important meetings of the country have continuously released good news. In six days, they have "proclaimed" real estate four times, especially on the demand side, releasing positive policy signals.

　　On December 14, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the "Strategic Planning Outline for Expanding Domestic Demand (2022-2035)".

In addition to "housing to live in, no speculation" and "strengthening the guidance of real estate market expectations and exploring new development models", the document also pointed out that it is necessary to accelerate the establishment of a housing system with multi-subject supply, multi-channel guarantee, and simultaneous rental and purchase, and steadily implement the real estate market. Stable and healthy development of long-term mechanisms to support residents' reasonable demand for self-occupation, curb speculative demand for investment, stabilize land prices, housing prices, and expectations.

　　On December 15, Liu He, Vice Premier of the State Council, pointed out that "real estate is a pillar industry of the national economy" and mentioned that "new measures are being considered to improve the industry's assets and liabilities, and guide market expectations and confidence to pick up."

　　From December 15th to 16th, the Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing.

The meeting proposed to support rigid and improved housing needs.

We must adhere to the positioning of "houses are for living in, not for speculation", and promote the smooth transition of the real estate industry to a new development model.

　　On December 19, the relevant person in charge of the Central Finance Office stated that it is necessary to attach great importance to the current problems and risks and challenges of the real estate industry. .

The policies and measures introduced intensively in the near future will gradually bear fruit, and various policies and measures will continue to be improved.

　　In terms of expectations and demand, the above-mentioned person in charge proposed to focus on improving expectations, expanding effective demand, and supporting rigid and improved housing demand. For example, there are still some restrictive policies that hinder the release of consumer demand in areas such as housing consumption. It should be released; in combination with the implementation of the childbirth policy and talent policy, solve the housing problems of new and old citizens, young people, etc.; encourage the increase in the supply of affordable rental housing and develop the long-term rental housing market; reasonably increase consumer credit and support housing improvement and other consumption.

　　"The policy requirements of the Central Economic Work Conference on the real estate industry have changed a lot compared with last year. It is the first time after many years that it is clearly pointed out that housing demand should be supported." Lian Ping, chief economist and director of the research institute of Zhixin Investment, predicts that next year's policy will On the one hand, it will meet the rigid housing demand, and on the other hand, it is expected to increase the policy support for improving housing demand.

At the same time, next year we will better handle real estate companies and their related financial risks.

In view of the current downturn in the real estate market and the tight financial situation of real estate companies, it is expected that the management of the housing system will provide further support from both supply and demand next year.

　　Chen Wenjing, director of market research at the Index Business Unit of the China Index Research Institute, said that after the real estate market undergoes a deep adjustment in 2022, the current sentiment of homebuyers and confidence in the corporate market have not yet reversed. Under the goal of ensuring the stable development of the real estate market, both supply and demand will be boosted Market confidence is still the key to solving the problem at the moment.

Demand-side policies are expected to continue to follow up in 2023.

　　The demand side exerts efforts to release the potential of housing consumption

　　Since November, with the implementation of the "16 Financial Measures" and "Three Arrows" policies in real estate, the financial situation of real estate companies has been improved to a certain extent.

　　According to the data released by the China Finger Research Institute, since the implementation of the "Financial 16 Measures", more than 60 banks have signed credit agreements with more than 100 real estate companies, with a total amount of about 4 trillion yuan, and many companies have also released equity financing plans , Enterprise capital is expected to further improve.

　　However, the downturn on the demand side continues.

On December 15, the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that from January to November this year, the sales area of ​​commercial housing decreased by 23.3% year-on-year, and the sales volume of commercial housing decreased by 26.6% year-on-year, with the declines expanding by 1 and 0.5 percentage points respectively.

　　From the perspective of market analysis, only when the demand side is repaired and the enterprises are helped to restore normal operation and hematopoietic capabilities can the industry truly enter a stable development track.

　　Talking about how to implement follow-up demand-side policies, Chen Wenjing believes that we must fully realize the importance of the real estate industry and release the potential of housing consumption.

In 2023, policies such as purchase restrictions, loan restrictions, and price restrictions in core first- and second-tier cities may continue to be relaxed. Especially in core second-tier cities, there is more room for policy optimization to release more effective housing demand for the market.

　　Chen Wenjing said that at present, the implementation of restrictive policies such as "recognizing housing and subscribing loans" in first-tier cities is still relatively strict. In the future, we may start with specific groups of people, such as talents, multi-child families, industrial groups, etc., to make more precise adjustments and optimizations to release specific groups of people. Demand for house purchases; second-tier cities still have a lot of room for optimization in terms of reducing the down payment ratio and adjusting the scope of "recognize housing and mortgage". To better release the demand for improved housing.

As the policy is implemented and effective, market confidence in core cities may gradually recover, and the market is expected to gradually enter the recovery channel.

　　In addition to opening up the space for local policies to be implemented according to the city, the housing consumption potential contained in urbanization should not be underestimated.

The report of the CR Research Center pointed out that the rural transfer population has a rigid demand for home purchases in cities, and the support policies for new citizens, especially the credit support, are worth looking forward to.

In addition, with the advancement of the reform of the household registration system, the demand for "improvement" housing consumption generated by the population transition from low-level cities to high-level cities will increase, and the threshold for settlement in core cities, especially for talents, may be further lowered.

　　"After the real estate market is divorced from the financial nature, whether the policy can effectively activate rigid demand and improved demand to enter the market, and boost the ability of real estate companies to withdraw funds is the most critical." Li Qilin, director of the Hongta Securities Research Institute, suggested that in addition to the housing demand side In addition to stimulus, it is also necessary to control the credit risk of real estate companies, because most of the first-hand houses are pre-sales. If the credit risk of real estate companies is not restrained, home buyers dare not enter the market rashly.

Real estate companies can only truly enter a virtuous circle after the normal ability to recover funds from sales can be rebuilt.

The pressure to release the credit risk of real estate companies is expected to ease.

In 2023, it is expected that there will be more measures on the demand side for house purchases, and the restrictions on loans and purchases are expected to be further relaxed, but the support policies are only a backstop, because the general tone of "housing is not for speculation" is still there, and only the reasonable financing needs of real estate companies will be met. However, de-financialization of the real estate market is still a major trend.

　　In fact, in the context of the continued strengthening of overall policy expectations, favorable policies on the demand side are gradually being released.

　　Since 2022, the LPR (quoted loan market interest rate) with a period of more than 5 years has dropped by 35 basis points; The lower limit of individual housing loan interest rates was adjusted to not be lower than the market quotation rate (LPR) of the corresponding term minus 20 basis points; on September 29, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission gradually relaxed the lower limit of interest rates on first-time housing loans in some cities; on September 30 , The central bank decided to lower the interest rate of the first set of personal housing provident fund loans by 0.15 percentage points, and the interest rates for less than 5 years (including 5 years) and more than 5 years were adjusted to 2.6% and 3.1% respectively.

　　Regarding how to further support residents' demand for housing purchases from the interest rate side, Yan Yuejin, Research Director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, previously told reporters that similar innovations can also be carried out in the stock market, such as appropriately reducing the spread between mortgage interest rates and 5-year LPR , It can also reduce the repayment pressure of home buyers.

　　Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of China Merchants Union Finance, told reporters that we should continue to guide LPR, especially LPR with a period of more than 5 years, to a moderate downward trend, which not only reduces the burden of residential housing consumption but also stimulates the medium and long-term financing needs of enterprises, promotes the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, and better promotes macroeconomic development. The economy recovered steadily.

"It is expected that January or February next year will be the time window for LPR to decline." He said.