Chinanews.com, December 21 (Zhongxin Finance Gong Hongyu) On the 20th, the latest loan market quotation rate (LPR) announced by the National Interbank Funding Center authorized by the People's Bank of China showed that the one-year LPR was 3.65%. , the LPR over 5 years was 4.3%, both consistent with the previous month.

This is the fourth consecutive month since the LPR interest rate was lowered asymmetrically in August this year.

　　Experts pointed out that it is possible to lower the LPR in early 2023, and it may be more necessary to lower the LPR with a period of more than 5 years.

Data map: People's Bank of China.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Xinglong

Why continue to "stand still"?

　　"The interest rate of the Mid-term Lending Facility (MLF) remained unchanged in December, and the pricing basis of LPR quotations has not changed." Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, pointed out that on December 15, the central bank increased volume parity and continued to make MLF of 650 billion yuan , The winning bid interest rate remained unchanged at 2.75%, which greatly reduced the room for LPR cuts in December.

　　Wang Qing, the chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, believes that the recent market interest rates have risen rapidly, and the marginal capital cost of banks has increased, which has weakened the motivation of quotation banks to compress LPR quotations and add points.

　　According to data from the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the net interest margin of commercial banks in the third quarter was 1.94%, which was flat from the second quarter, narrowed by 3 basis points from the first quarter, and narrowed by 13 basis points year-on-year.

　　In addition, Wang Qing also pointed out that on November 13, the regulatory authorities launched the "Financial 16 Measures", and on the 14th issued the "Notice on the Work of Commercial Banks Issuing Letters of Guarantee to Replace Pre-sale Supervision Funds", and the policy of stabilizing the property market has continued to increase. Policy effect observation period.

Is there any room for downgrades in the future?

　　In Wen Bin's view, various policies to stabilize the economy have been continuously increased recently, and the Central Economic Work Conference has released stronger signals for stabilizing growth, expanding domestic demand, and improving confidence.

In order to further stimulate credit demand, activate the vitality of the main body, promote the recovery of the property market, and help the recovery of consumption, there is still room for downward adjustment of the LPR in 2023.

　　"In terms of timing, considering that banks are facing a 'good start' task at the beginning of next year, the LPR cut can effectively drive down the entity's financing costs and promote credit expansion when credit is urgently needed." Wen Bin pointed out that at the same time, "Financial 16 After the promulgation of the "Articles" measures, mortgage loans are still hovering at a low level, and credit policies need to be further coordinated to promote the recovery of real estate sales and investment.

　　"Therefore, it may be possible to lower the LPR in the first quarter of next year, and it is most necessary to lower the LPR for a period of more than five years that can better support the entity." Wen Bin mentioned.

　　Wang Qing also believes that it does not rule out the possibility that the quotation bank will postpone the reduction of the five-year LPR quotation until January next year from the perspective of maintaining asset returns in 2023.

(Finish)