Why does the central government emphasize "confidence" many times when it deploys the economy in 2023?

　　[China New Observation] Why does the central government emphasize "confidence" many times when deploying the economy in 2023?

　　China News Service, December 17 (Li Jinlei, chief financial reporter) Confidence is more important than gold.

　　The Central Economic Work Conference held from December 15th to 16th emphasized the key word "confidence" many times.

"We must strengthen our confidence in doing economic work well" "Vigorously boost market confidence" "Next year's economic work will be complicated. We must proceed from the strategic overall situation, start with improving social psychological expectations and boost development confidence, and do a good job"... …

Why is there such an emphasis on boosting confidence now?

　　Looking at the current situation facing the Chinese economy, we will understand the importance of boosting confidence and improving expectations.

　　When analyzing the current economic situation, the meeting pointed out that the current foundation for my country's economic recovery is not yet solid, and the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations is still relatively large.

　　Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, pointed out that since the beginning of this year, market expectations have deteriorated, the consumer confidence index of residents has declined, and the production and operation activities of enterprises are expected to drop to the lowest level since the beginning of 2020. The willingness to expand production and invest is not strong.

　　Against the background of weakening expectations, the growth rate of private investment will slow down since 2022.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November, private investment in fixed assets increased by only 1.1% year-on-year.

　　Feng Xuming, director of the Research Office of the Macroeconomic Think Tank of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the "China New Observation" column of Chinanews.com that the Central Economic Work Conference has repeatedly emphasized boosting confidence, which is to guide expectations and

: As the epidemic has entered a new stage, the central government will focus more on economic development, accelerate economic recovery, and promote high-quality development.

Local governments at all levels and various market entities must continuously release development vitality and accumulate development momentum through innovation and reform.

Data map.

Photo by Xu Congjun

How to boost confidence?

First, look at the problem dialectically.

　　"However, we must see that China's economy is resilient, has great potential, and is full of vitality. The effects of various policies continue to show.

We must strengthen our confidence in doing economic work." Judgment, send a positive signal.

　　The meeting also requested that we must accurately grasp the requirements for next year's economic work deployment, dare to take responsibility, do good deeds, observe the facts, be creative and implement them, and

　　Feng Xuming believes that my country's economy is expected to show a trend of accelerated recovery in 2023, and the economic growth rate will gradually return to the potential growth rate level.

Under the joint effect of factors such as the base effect and the 20 major policy dividends, it is expected to achieve an economic growth rate of more than 5% for the whole year.

Second, effectively eliminate noise.

　　The meeting pointed out that

　　"Two unwavering", that is, unswervingly consolidate and develop the public sector of the economy, and unswervingly encourage, support, and guide the development of the non-public sector of the economy.

　　Zhu Keli, the founding director of the National Research Institute of New Economic Research, told Chinanews.com's "China New Observation" column that the most prominent highlight of this year's conference is to actively respond to some questions and controversies that have arisen from the outside world in recent years, and

　　Zhu Keli believes that the meeting once again reaffirmed the practical implementation of the "two unwavering" and plans for a new round of comprehensively deepening reforms, which will help stabilize and improve social psychological expectations, boost confidence in market development, and will help restore and revitalize the private economy and private investment. Vitality plays a positive role.

Third, come up with hard moves.

　　For residents, the meeting proposed measures such as "

, supporting consumption such as housing improvement, new energy vehicles, and elderly care services" and "putting employment promotion for young people, especially college graduates, in a more prominent position."

　　Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of China Merchants Union Finance, said that with the implementation of the "Twenty Articles" and "New Ten Articles" for scientific and precise epidemic prevention, vigorously boosting residents' consumption is the top priority.

　　Regarding private enterprises, the meeting proposed that

.

Protect the property rights of private enterprises and the rights and interests of entrepreneurs in accordance with the law.

, and build pro-Qing political and business relations.

　　Wen Bin believes that the policy setting for the real estate market ("to ensure the stable development of the real estate market") and the platform economy ("to support platform companies in leading development, creating jobs, and showing their talents in international competition") is also expected to be stable to a certain extent Private enterprise expectations.

　　Regarding foreign investment, the meeting called for promoting high-level opening up and improving the quality and level of trade and investment cooperation.

　　According to the interviewed experts, a series of measures will help to stabilize and boost the confidence of foreign-funded enterprises in the Chinese market.

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