(Economic Observer) The Central Economic Work Conference releases three major signals for the property market next year
China News Agency, Beijing, December 16th, title: The Central Economic Work Conference released three major signals for the property market next year
China News Agency reporter Pang Wuji
The Central Economic Work Conference, which closed on the 16th, discussed real estate-related issues in a large space. Among them, it not only deploys to prevent and resolve short-term risks, but also emphasizes medium and long-term goals such as adhering to "housing is not for speculation" and promoting the smooth transition of the real estate industry to a new development model. .
The meeting released three major signals for China's property market next year.
First, risk prevention and protection of people's livelihood will be the core objectives of the real estate policy in 2023.
In the section of "Effectively Preventing and Resolving Major Economic and Financial Risks", the meeting pointed out that it is necessary to ensure the stable development of the real estate market, do a good job in ensuring the delivery of buildings, people's livelihood, and stability, meet the reasonable financing needs of the industry, and promote industry restructuring and mergers. To prevent and defuse the risks of high-quality leading real estate enterprises, improve the assets and liabilities, and at the same time resolutely crack down on illegal and criminal activities in accordance with the law.
From the report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China to the Central Economic Work Conference, "preventing and resolving major risks" has become an important content that decision-makers pay close attention to.
Chen Wenjing, director of market research at the Index Division of the China Index Research Institute, told a reporter from China News Agency that major economic and financial risks include real estate risks, and "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings" and preventing and resolving risks for real estate companies are the key directions.
Among them, "guaranteed delivery of buildings" is still the top priority, and will also be one of the important focus points of the real estate policy next year.
Chen Wenjing predicts that in 2023, the special loans and supporting funds for "guaranteed handover buildings" will continue to accelerate the implementation, and "guaranteed handover buildings" are expected to make more substantial progress, promote expected restoration, and protect the rights and interests of home buyers.
Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of the Shell Research Institute, also said in an interview with a reporter from China News Agency that the Central Economic Work Conference's deployment of real estate work takes into account both long-term and short-term goals.
In response to the debt default problem of short-term real estate companies, he believes that the government has recently adopted a national guarantee to increase credit to meet the reasonable financing needs of the industry.
The meeting emphasized effective prevention and resolution of risks in high-quality leading real estate companies, which will help restore industry credit and help real estate companies restore their "blood-making" capabilities.
It should be noted that this does not mean that real estate companies can "sit back and enjoy the benefits".
Pang Ming, Chief Economist and Research Director of Jones Lang LaSalle Greater China, believes that on the one hand, the policy guides high-quality real estate companies with solid fundamentals, excellent cash flow, and high financial security to improve the quality of sales and payment collection and continue to explore new opportunities. On the other hand, it will also properly handle some enterprises that were unable to save themselves under the high-leverage and high-growth model in the past, and were unable to actively complete business adjustment and transformation. The market will naturally clear it.
Second, the tone of real estate management has shifted to comprehensively stabilize the market and recover demand.
Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Institute of Urban Planning, told a reporter from China News Agency that the meeting's emphasis on ensuring the stable development of the real estate market and meeting the reasonable financing needs of the industry means that the tone of real estate management has shifted to comprehensively stabilize the market and recover demand.
This is an important part of the package of bailout policies after the epidemic, and it is also an important part of expanding domestic demand and building an internal cycle.
Recently, popular cities have loosened restrictions on house purchases, supported real estate companies to finance "three arrows at the same time", and both supply and demand sides have begun to fully exert their strength, which is strong evidence.
He believes that in the first quarter of next year, real estate will begin to stabilize.
On the 14th, Vice Premier Liu He pointed out that "real estate is a pillar industry of the national economy" and mentioned that new measures are being considered to guide market expectations and confidence to pick up.
Chen Wenjing believes that after the real estate market undergoes a deep adjustment in 2022, the current home buyer sentiment and enterprise market confidence have not yet reversed. Under the goal of ensuring the stable development of the real estate market, boosting market confidence at both ends of the supply and demand is still the key to solving the problem now .
Next year, both the real estate enterprise-side and demand-side support policies are expected to continue to strengthen.
This time the meeting clearly proposed to support housing improvement consumption.
Chen Wenjing pointed out that from January to November 2022, nearly a thousand real estate demand-side policies will be issued across the country, but more policies will focus on groups that just need to buy houses. In 2023, policies to support improved housing demand are expected to be further strengthened, especially in core second-tier cities , There is a lot of room for policy optimization, and the housing exchange chain is expected to be smoother.
Xu Xiaole also believes that in the future, it is expected that there will be some policies to reduce the cost of first-time home buyers and improved house replacement, and increase credit support.
Third, there is a deep meaning behind the reaffirmation that housing is not for speculation.
"House to live in, not speculation" was first proposed at the Central Economic Work Conference in 2016.
Experts in the industry believe that the meeting reaffirmed that "housing should be lived in, not speculated" to send a clear signal: the direction of property market regulation and control policies has always been stable, and it is impossible for real estate to return to the old path of "short-term economic stimulus".
The various supportive policies since this year are corrections to some of the overly stringent policies in the implementation process of the past two years, rather than a shift in regulatory policies.
In the medium and long term, the meeting emphasized the need to promote the smooth transition of the real estate industry to a new development model.
Li Yujia pointed out that since 2020, the state has emphasized the new model of real estate. This time, the emphasis on "smooth transition" means that the transformation of the industry needs to grasp the rhythm. It is imperative for the real estate industry to bid farewell to "high debt, high leverage, and high turnover", but these are What needs to be achieved in the long run cannot be accomplished at one stroke.
This reflects that real estate regulation and control pays more attention to systematic thinking, and it is necessary to coordinate the relationship between short-term and long-term, growth and transformation.
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