Why should the central government set the tone for the property market in 2023 under this framework?

　　China News Service, December 17th (China News Finance reporter Zuo Yukun) The Central Economic Work Conference will be held in Beijing from December 15th to 16th.

For the real estate industry, under the overall policy of "ensuring the stable development of the real estate market", the meeting had an important new expression.

Data map: A real estate building that has just been completed.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Bin

Effectively prevent and defuse the risks of high-quality leading real estate enterprises

　　The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to ensure the stable development of the real estate market, do a solid job in ensuring the delivery of buildings, protecting people's livelihood, and ensuring stability, meet the reasonable financing needs of the industry, promote industry restructuring and mergers, effectively prevent and resolve the risks of high-quality leading real estate companies, and improve assets and liabilities At the same time, we must resolutely crack down on illegal and criminal acts in accordance with the law.

　　"This meeting put the content of real estate

, which fully shows that real estate risk prevention has risen to a new height, and it also shows that risk prevention has become an important task for real estate." Yi Yan Yuejin, Research Director of the Think Tank Center of the Ju Research Institute, believes that all regions need to do a good job in new work from the perspective of risk prevention.

　　Real estate is a pillar industry of the national economy, how to prevent and resolve risks in the real estate industry?

Chen Wenjing, market research director of the Index Division of the China Index Research Institute, believes that "guaranteed housing delivery" is the top priority and will also be one of the important focus points for the introduction of real estate policies. The financial support of high-quality leading real estate companies is expected to be further increased.

　　Chen Wenjing expects that policies to promote the stabilization and recovery of the sales market and improve the funding of high-quality real estate companies will continue to be introduced, which will help further reduce industry risks.

Support rigid and improving housing needs

　　The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to implement policies according to the city, support rigid and improved housing needs, solve the housing problems of new citizens and young people, and explore the construction of the long-term rental housing market.

　　"Supporting rigid and improved housing demand" is not a new term, but the industry generally believes that it will be more important in 2023.

　　"After the real estate market undergoes in-depth adjustments in 2022, the current home buyer sentiment and corporate market confidence have not yet reversed. Under the goal of ensuring the stable development of the real estate market, boosting market confidence at both ends of the supply and demand is still the key to solving the problem." Chen Wenjing said.

　　According to CRIC statistics, in recent years, the demand for improvement has been the main force of house purchases.

From the perspective of major cities across the country, in 2021, the three-bedroom products of newly-built commercial housing will firmly occupy the main position in transactions, and the proportion of four-bedroom transactions will continue to grow.

In 2019, three-bedroom units have begun to dominate, accounting for 51.42%, and the proportion of transactions in 2021 will rise to 55.27%.

　　"In the future, if the commercial housing market wants to stabilize in the short term, it will drive domestic demand and consumption, and the release of improved demand is the key." Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Urban Planning Institute, predicts that the purchase restriction policy, second-home loan down payment and interest rates, Housing transaction taxes and fees may be adjusted.

The circulation of stock houses releases the stock of small-sized and low-priced second-hand houses. This is also the path for new citizens to buy houses and just need to buy houses.

Data map: Citizens pass by a building.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Yun

Promote the smooth transition of the real estate industry to a new development model

　　The meeting pointed out that we must adhere to the positioning that houses are for living in, not for speculation, and promote the smooth transition of the real estate industry to a new development model.

　　The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China has already set the tone for the development of the real estate industry in the next five years. This meeting also mentioned "housing for housing, not speculation", which also continued the keynote of the Central Economic Work Conference in recent years in real estate.

However, Chen Wenjing pointed out that this time "housing for living, not speculation" has moved back to a certain extent compared to the past, and it has been placed behind specific tasks, which also shows that "housing is for living, not speculation" is the long-term positioning of the real estate industry.

　　The "new real estate development model" was first mentioned at the Central Economic Work Conference in 2021. At that time, it was expressed as "exploring a new development model"

.

Chen Wenjing judged that as the real estate industry enters a new stage of development, the new development model may be based on the construction of the housing system, the simultaneous development of rent and purchase, and the revitalization of stock.

　　"This meeting indicates that

" Li Yujia believes that recent hot cities have adjusted restrictions on purchases and loans, and the "three arrows" have entered the market.

To exert force is a powerful proof.

　　Li Yujia predicts that in the first quarter of next year, with the full recovery of the impact of the epidemic, the real estate market will begin to stabilize, manifested in the fact that the decline in asset prices will be under control, and the decline in the entire chain of sales, development, and construction will be under control.

Sales and prices are the first to stabilize, while construction, land and investment will lag behind and stabilize.

(Finish)