Original title: (Economic Observation) China's property market is still bottoming out in November
China News Agency, Beijing, December 15th (Reporter Pang Wuji) In November, China's property market is still in a downward trend.
On the 15th, the National Bureau of Statistics of China released a number of core real estate indicators including housing prices in 70 cities, real estate development investment, and commercial housing sales.
Judging from the data at both ends of supply and demand, the current real estate market is still bottoming out:
—House prices are still falling in most cities.
In November, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities in China, the number of cities with month-on-month declines in new housing and second-hand housing prices was 51 and 62, respectively.
According to estimates, the average index of new and second-hand housing prices in 70 cities has fallen for 15 consecutive months.
Prices of new homes in second- and third-tier cities have fallen back to a year ago.
-- Real estate sales remain weak.
From January to November, the sales area of commercial housing in China decreased by 23.3% year-on-year, and the sales volume of commercial housing decreased by 26.6%.
In November, the sales area and sales volume of commercial housing across the country both fell by more than 30% year-on-year, and the decline expanded.
——The decline in supply-side indicators such as investment, new housing construction, and land acquisition expanded.
From January to November, the national real estate development investment decreased by 9.8% year-on-year, the area of new housing construction decreased by 38.9% year-on-year, and the area of land purchase decreased by 53.8%, both of which expanded compared with the January-October period.
Chen Wenjing, Director of Market Research of the Index Business Department of the China Index Research Institute, pointed out that since November, the regulatory authorities have introduced a number of measures to stabilize the real estate market, and real estate financing support measures such as "financial 16 measures", "second arrow" and "third arrow" have been implemented successively , Played a positive role in restoring market confidence, but under the influence of factors such as residents' low willingness to buy houses and the impact of the epidemic, the downturn in the real estate market has not yet been reversed.
She believes that in the short term, factors such as income expectations and house price expectations that affect residents' house purchases have not yet been significantly repaired. Home buyers still mainly wait and see when buying houses, and it will take time for the market to stabilize.
The superposition of cyclical, endogenous factors and external shocks may be an important reason for the prolonged adjustment of the current round of property market.
Liu Lijie, a market analyst at the Shell Research Institute, believes that since the beginning of this year, the continuous decline in the real estate market is the decline of the real estate industry after experiencing the previous high-speed development cycle.
At the same time, factors such as risk spillovers from real estate companies and frequent disturbances in the epidemic have deepened the downward trend.
How does the property market get out of such a deep adjustment?
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, believes that the key lies in restoring market confidence.
In November, there were two reasons why the property market continued to bottom out: on the one hand, the third- and fourth-tier cities still lack specific implementation measures for "guaranteed housing"; .
Judging from the past multiple cycles, he believes that the property market policies of Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have a great impact on the whole country, and the stabilization of the real estate market must start from the first- and second-tier core cities.
It is worth noting that recently, second-tier core cities have accelerated the pace of policy optimization. For example, some banks in Nanjing have tried to "recognize loans but not houses", and Wuhan, Xiamen, and Foshan have relaxed purchase restrictions.
Zhang Dawei believes that in the future, some house purchase policies in first- and second-tier cities may have a little room to loosen, so as to better support residents' demand for improved house purchases and improve living conditions.
Looking forward to 2023, Chen Cong, chief analyst of infrastructure and modern service industries at CITIC Securities, believes that although various real estate indicators are currently sluggish, sales recovery is not far away.
During the three-year epidemic period, a large number of self-occupancy needs for improvement have accumulated, which may be released in the future.
At the same time, the government continues to introduce supportive policies for various economic activities including real estate development, and mortgage loan interest rates are at historically low levels. In addition, the Spring Festival in 2023 will come relatively early, and the Spring Festival holiday will end earlier. In spring, we move from the bottom of the policy to the bottom of the market.
Recently, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the "Strategic Planning Outline for Expanding Domestic Demand (2022-2035)".
Zhang Bo, dean of the branch of 58 Anju Guest House Industry Research Institute, said that the overall thinking and direction of real estate regulation have not changed.
The positioning of "housing to live in, not speculation" and the housing system of renting and purchasing are still the top priorities.
He believes that the real estate market will stabilize and recover in the next six months. However, house prices are not expected to rise sharply. It is expected that cities of different levels will stabilize and recover in rotation.
(Finish)