Expert: The negative impact of the new U.S. export control regulations on the U.S. has already appeared, harming others and ourselves

　　Chinanews.com, Beijing, December 9th, title: Expert: The negative impact of the new U.S. export control regulations on the U.S. has already appeared, harming others and ourselves

　　Tu Xinquan, dean of the China WTO Research Institute of the University of International Business and Economics, and Li Jiantong, an assistant researcher, recently published a signed article saying that the United States has played a combined punch in the semiconductor field with the intention of strangling China's semiconductor industry.

In addition, the new US export control regulations have caused huge losses to the global semiconductor industry chain.

　　The following is the full text of the article:

　　1. The United States is playing a combined punch in the semiconductor field, intending to stifle China's semiconductor industry

　　On October 7, 2022, the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) of the U.S. Department of Commerce issued new semiconductor export control regulations, which put forward unprecedented licensing restrictions on the export of advanced chips, software, and various semiconductor manufacturing equipment used to produce advanced chips to China. .

　　In fact, this new export control regulation is only part of the grand plan of the United States to strangle China's semiconductor industry: before this, the United States has led the establishment of the "Semiconductor Alliance of the United States" (SIAC) and the "Chip Quartet Alliance" (Chip4), actively shaping and building "De-Sinicization" semiconductor supply chain system; Approval of the "2022 Chip and Science Act", which provides approximately US$52 billion in government subsidies for its domestic and foreign semiconductor manufacturers investing in the United States, and requires those who receive subsidy support Chip companies are not allowed to build or expand advanced semiconductor factories in mainland China within 10 years.

　　It is not difficult to see that the United States has gone to great lengths to suppress China's semiconductor industry.

Objectively speaking, the above-mentioned policies of the United States have indeed had a certain adverse impact on the stable development of China's semiconductor industry: restricted by the new US export control regulations, Chinese semiconductor companies are facing the supply risks of some key materials, accessories and equipment. The stock prices of representative companies such as Chip International, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and Fudan Microelectronics have fallen sharply after the implementation of the new regulations, which also reflects that China's semiconductor industry is under tremendous pressure.

　　However, it needs to be clear that it is not only China's semiconductor industry that is negatively affected by the new US export control regulations, but also the US's own semiconductor industry; furthermore, the global semiconductor industry chain will suffer huge losses as a result.

The new U.S. export control regulations are harmful to others and unpopular.

　　2. The direct negative impact of the new regulations on the United States has already appeared, and the potential negative impact may be more serious

　　The first is the immediate negative impact:

　　First, reduce business revenue.

China is the largest market for many U.S. semiconductor companies. After the introduction of the new regulations, many U.S. semiconductor giants have significantly lowered their revenue targets.

Applied Materials (Applied Materials) disclosed that the impact of the new regulations on its revenue in 2023 may reach 1.5 billion to 2.5 billion US dollars.

Lam Research believes that its revenue in 2023 may be reduced by US$2 billion to US$2.5 billion due to the impact of the new regulations.

Kelei (KLA) predicts that due to the inability to provide support to some Chinese customers, its 2023 revenue will decrease by 600 million to 900 million US dollars.

　　Second, curb new investment.

Faced with increased policy uncertainty and reduced demand, some U.S. semiconductor companies have announced a significant reduction in equipment investment. For example, Intel’s equipment investment in 2022 will be reduced by 15% compared to its previous plan. Investment in process equipment is reduced by 50%.

　　Followed by potential negative effects:

　　First, reduce the market efficiency of the industry and inhibit the improvement of the export competitiveness and even the technological competitiveness of US semiconductor companies.

The U.S. export control system is extremely complicated, and many small and medium-sized enterprises that cannot afford to hire lawyers proficient in export control can only give up exporting.

Even those semiconductor giants have to forcibly cut off their long-term partners in the face of strict policies.

The new regulations are mainly aimed at China, but China is precisely the largest source of revenue for many US semiconductor companies.

Abandoning the Chinese market, without the support of massive revenue and profits, companies will not have enough funds to support the research and development of advanced technologies in the semiconductor field. In the long run, this will undoubtedly greatly weaken the technological competitiveness of US semiconductor companies.

　　Second, damage the image of the industry and shake its dominance in the global semiconductor industry chain.

The export control system grants U.S. government officials enormous power to review the export behavior of semiconductor companies, and the implementation process of this power is non-transparent, which has raised concerns about discrimination.

At the same time, in order to enhance the effect of the policy, the U.S. government requires semiconductor products produced in other countries that contain U.S. components to also comply with its export control regulations, which also increases people's doubts about the reliability of the U.S. semiconductor supply chain.

Chad P. Bown, a senior researcher at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), pointed out that the spread of the above-mentioned concerns and doubts may make customers and suppliers of US semiconductor companies preventively reduce their dependence on US semiconductor companies: Even if the United States has not identified them as endangering the national security of the United States, no one can guarantee that the United States will not include them in the entity list in the future.

When semiconductor companies outside the United States have such motives and try to reduce their dependence on the United States, the ability of the United States to lead and control the global semiconductor industry chain will undoubtedly become weaker and weaker.

　　3. The new regulations will cause huge losses to the global semiconductor industry chain

　　First, the new U.S. export control regulations have disrupted the original division of labor in the global semiconductor industry chain, seriously out of touch with the actual production of enterprises.

In order to mitigate related risks, many countries and regions have to preventively hoard a large amount of semiconductor products or implement inefficient localized supply chains, which will undoubtedly increase a lot of unnecessary costs and greatly reduce the overall operating efficiency of the semiconductor industry.

According to the estimates of the US Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) and Boston Consulting Group (BCG), if major countries and regions around the world establish a complete local supply of semiconductors, an initial investment of US$900 billion to US$1,225 billion and an investment of US$45 billion to US$125 billion will be required. Incremental annual operating costs.

This is undoubtedly unbearable for the already fragile global semiconductor industry chain.

　　Second, the new regulations inhibit technological progress in the global semiconductor industry chain.

From the demand side, the new regulations have passively reduced the effective demand for semiconductor products in China and other emerging market countries, which is not conducive to semiconductor companies raising or withdrawing funds, and the research and development of semiconductor technology requires huge capital investment.

From the supply side, the progress of semiconductor technology is based on the technical exchanges and cooperation of all parties.

According to statistics, in the past 10 years, 36% and 60% of the semiconductor scientific publications published in China and the United States were jointly authored by institutions in other countries; many semiconductor technologies, such as FinFET and EUV, were also jointly developed by many countries or regions the result of.

The new regulations restrict the cross-border flow of advanced technologies or intermediate products containing advanced technologies. When semiconductor companies have difficulty accessing existing advanced technologies, it is naturally difficult to independently develop newer and better technologies out of thin air.

　　Third, the new regulations have increased the risks and uncertainties of the global semiconductor industry chain and damaged policy mutual trust among all parties.

Once one party implements unreasonable export control, it is like opening a "Pandora's Box": export control first affects the party under control, and then the impact is transmitted to policy implementers and third parties through the global semiconductor industry chain.

The original tacit understanding and balance of power among the relevant parties will be broken, and other parties other than the policy implementer may also introduce various similar measures to retaliate or protect themselves, and even trigger a beggar-thy-neighbor trade war in the end, leading to regional and even global trade wars. The huge shock of the revolutionary semiconductor industry and related industries.

　　4. The new U.S. export control regulations come out of nowhere, go against industry expectations, and are unpopular

　　New U.S. export control rules come out of nowhere.

According to the "General Exception Clause" and "Security Exception Clause" in Articles 20 and 21 of GATT, under the WTO framework, export control should generally be for the purpose of safeguarding national security, safeguarding public interests or fulfilling international obligations. Purpose.

The United States has repeatedly imposed export controls on China without conclusive evidence. This is a clear violation of WTO rules and a flagrant violation of international law.

　　The new U.S. export control rules go against the expectations of the global semiconductor industry.

As Roh Jong-won, chief marketing director of SK Hynix, said, "The principles that we used to take as common sense, such as producing at the place with the lowest cost and highest efficiency, and then shipping the product to all parts of the world, have now become full of uncertainty. The decision-making process influenced by factors other than commercial".

　　Judging from the actions of many semiconductor companies around the world, the new US export control regulations are unpopular.

When the new regulations were just promulgated, South Korea's Samsung and SK Hynix made it clear that they would do their best to maintain the operation of Chinese factories through continuous and close consultations with relevant governments.

At China's "Import Expo" held in early November this year, American Lam Group, Kelei, Qualcomm, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Intel, Texas Instruments (TI), Netherlands ASML and Japan's Nikon , Canon and other companies exhibited and enthusiastically promoted their semiconductor products and manufacturing equipment.

Enterprises' expectations for the Chinese market cannot be fundamentally changed by a new regulation from the US government.

　　5. Comments

　　The new U.S. export control regulations are intended to stifle China's semiconductor industry. It seems to have had some effect in the short term, but it also shot itself in the foot, damaging the long-term interests and development prospects of the country's semiconductor industry.

From a global perspective, the new US export control regulations have disrupted the normal market order of the semiconductor industry and caused huge losses to the global semiconductor industry chain.

The introduction of this policy lacks legitimacy and rationality, and continuing to implement such policies will only make all countries or regions in the semiconductor industry chain losers.

　　The top priority is for the US to recognize this situation in which all parties lose as soon as possible, and not use the generalized national security excuse to practice technological hegemony in the semiconductor industry.

The United States should proceed from its own long-term interests, the common interests of China and the United States, and the world, correct its current irrational practices, and liberalize export controls for products and technologies that do not involve its own national security; stop deliberate suppression of Chinese companies, there will be no clear evidence, Entities with reasonable reasons will be removed from the entity list; actively maintain the normal order of the semiconductor industry, and stop hijacking and wooing third parties to jointly suppress the right to survival and development of China's semiconductor industry.