China News Service, December 9th (China News Finance reporter Xie Yiguan) After 7 months, the year-on-year increase in CPI has returned to the "1 era" again.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 9th, in November, due to the joint influence of the domestic epidemic situation, seasonal factors and a higher comparison base in the same period last year, the CPI rose by 1.6% year-on-year.
CPI rise and fall trend chart.
from the Office for National Statistics
CPI year-on-year increase returns to "1 era"
From a year-on-year perspective, the increase in CPI dropped 0.5 percentage points from the previous month.
Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the year-on-year growth rate has fallen more, mainly due to the higher comparison base in the same period last year.
Specifically, food prices rose by 3.7%, a drop of 3.3 percentage points from the previous month, which affected the increase of CPI by about 0.68 percentage points.
Among food products, the price of fresh vegetables dropped by 21.2%, an increase of 13.1 percentage points from the previous month, which affected the CPI to drop by about 0.53 percentage points, and became an important factor driving the decline in CPI growth.
In addition, the price of pork rose by 34.4%, a decrease of 17.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the supporting effect on food items has diminished.
The prices of eggs, fresh fruit and poultry meat rose by 10.4%, 9.6% and 8.5% respectively; the prices of grain and edible oil rose by 3.0% and 7.6% respectively, and the growth rate was lower than that of the previous month.
"According to calculations, in the 1.6% year-on-year increase in CPI in November, the carry-over effect of last year's price changes was about -0.3 percentage points, and the impact of new price increases was about 1.9 percentage points." Dong Lijuan said that after deducting the core of food and energy prices CPI rose 0.6% year-on-year, the same increase as last month.
Data map: On September 15, people shop in a large supermarket in Jinjiang District, Chengdu.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Liu Zhongjun
The prices of fresh vegetables and pork both fell
From a month-on-month perspective, the CPI turned from a rise of 0.1% last month to a fall of 0.2%.
Among them, food prices turned from a 0.1% increase in the previous month to a decrease of 0.8%, which affected the CPI to drop by about 0.14 percentage points.
According to Dong Lijuan, among foods, due to good weather conditions and sufficient supply, the price of fresh vegetables dropped by 8.3%, which was 3.8 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, and affected the CPI to drop by about 0.18 percentage points.
A reporter from Zhongxin Finance and Economics recently found that in November, the prices of various vegetables in Beijing vegetable markets dropped. Compared with the same period last year, the prices of some vegetables were directly "cut in half".
In addition to the drop in the price of fresh vegetables, the release of pork from central reserves continued, and the supply of live pigs continued to increase. The price of pork turned from rising to falling, falling by 0.7%, which affected the CPI to drop by about 0.01 percentage points.
Data map: Stuffed sausage.
Chen Chaoshe
The annual CPI target of around 3% is expected to be achieved
The price of pork is a major factor affecting CPI fluctuations. Although the price dropped in November, as the temperature dropped significantly, the northern and southern markets began to make traditional cured meat and sausages in early December.
"Affected by this, the slaughter of live pigs has increased, and the price of live pigs has bottomed out and rebounded." Li Xia, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, said that near the end of the year, the breeding end will focus on seasonal slaughter, and the supply of live pigs will be relatively sufficient.
Coupled with the shortening of curing time this year and the high price of pork, it is expected that the boost effect of concentrated demand on pig prices may not be as good as that of the same period in previous years.
On average from January to November, the CPI rose by 2.0% over the same period of the previous year.
Next month, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the annual CPI data. According to the analysis of the industry, there is little suspense in achieving the expected target of an average annual CPI increase of around 3%.
Du Zhengzheng, an analyst at China Development Bank Securities, mentioned that the impact of the high base in 2021 will be dragged down, and there is limited room for superimposed pork prices to continue to rise sharply. The CPI may rise by 2% this year, which is a moderate increase compared with 2021.
(Finish)