Chinanews.com, December 9 (Xie Yiguan, China News Finance reporter) On December 9, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November. Under the background of falling prices of pork, vegetables and other foods, the CPI for November was year-on-year. What will happen?
CPI rise and fall trend chart.
Picture from the National Bureau of Statistics
The year-on-year increase in CPI in November may return to the "1 era"
In October, affected by factors such as the decline in consumer demand after the festival and the higher comparison base in the same period last year, the CPI rose by 2.1% year-on-year.
A reporter from Zhongxin Finance combed through the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and found that in November, the price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market weakened, and the year-on-year increase dropped significantly.
The average prices of the 28 key monitored vegetables and the price of eggs all dropped during the month.
"Stable supply and insufficient demand have led to weaker food prices." Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, said that in November, pork prices rose sharply in the previous period, and demand weakened due to the impact of the epidemic and weather, leading farmers to expect a decrease. As a result, the previous behavior of suppressing and reluctance to sell has changed to concentrated selling, and the price has been adjusted significantly.
The weather this winter is sunny and warm, and the abundant supply has led to a month-on-month drop in vegetable prices in November.
"Overall, it is expected that the CPI in November will drop by 0.2% month-on-month, combined with the impact of the high base last year, the year-on-year growth rate will drop significantly to 1.5%." Wen Bin said.
According to statistics from Flush iFinD, the average year-on-year forecast of November CPI by 17 institutions is 1.58%.
If the above-mentioned average forecast value is fulfilled, the year-on-year increase in CPI in November will continue to fall, returning to the "1 era" after many months.
Data map: Citizens buy the goods they need in the shopping mall and supermarket.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Liu Xin
CPI is expected to maintain a moderate upward trend
The price of pork is an important factor affecting the change of CPI food prices. According to the joint monitoring of the Information Center of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and Zhuo Chuang Information, in the 47th week of 2022 (November 28-December 2), 16 provinces (municipalities) lean meat The weekly average of the ex-factory price index for white striped pork was 28.62 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 3.6% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 22.5%.
"Recently, the epidemic prevention policy in some parts of the country has been optimized, which has a positive impact on both the supply and demand of pork." Chen Xueli, an analyst at Kaiyuan Securities, believes that this will help increase group meal consumption and family consumption in winter, and further drive the recovery of pork consumption in winter. It is expected that the price of live pigs will rebound month-on-month in December.
Will pork prices rise sharply again?
Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, said recently, "From the perspective of pork supply, there is no basis for a sharp rise in pork prices. At present, hog production capacity and hog stocks remain generally stable, and hog production is at a low level. A reasonable level does not support a sharp rise in pork prices."
At the same time, considering that the supply in the domestic market is generally sufficient, market demand is still recovering, and policy measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices will continue to be effective, Fu Linghui said, "In the next stage, although there are some uncertainties, in general, the consumer price It is expected to maintain a moderate upward trend." (End)