The central government sets the tone for the economy in 2023, 5 major signals

　　China News Service, December 7th (Chief Financial Reporter Li Jinlei) How will the Chinese economy do in 2023?

The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on December 6 to analyze and study economic work in 2023.

This important meeting set the tone for next year's economic work, highlighted a "stability", clarified five major policies, proposed "four dares", and released an important signal.

highlight a "stable"

Focus on stabilizing growth, employment, and prices

　　Regarding the Chinese economy in 2023, the meeting made a series of deployments and requirements:

.

　　Chinanews.com's "China New Observation" column noticed that the meeting highlighted the word "stable", and the press release mentioned "stable" in 14 places.

　　Zhang Lianqi, a member of the Standing Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and a management accounting consulting expert of the Ministry of Finance, told Chinanews.com's "China New Observation" column that stable growth will be placed in a more prominent position, measures to comprehensively deepen reform and opening up will be stronger, and efforts to boost market confidence will be stronger. big.

　　Feng Xuming, director of the Research Office of the Macroeconomic Think Tank of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told Chinanews.com's "China New Observation" column that stable growth is the basis and key to promoting the overall improvement of economic operation in 2023, and it is also the basis and key to achieving stable employment, stable prices, risk prevention, and adjustment. basis for other objectives such as structure, escalation, etc.

Requires "a good start and a good start"

Vigorously boost market confidence and promote the overall improvement of economic operation

　　The meeting emphasized that "comprehensively deepen reform and opening up, vigorously boost market confidence" and "

."

　　China's economic growth target for 2022 is about 5.5%. However, due to factors such as the complex and severe international environment and the impact of the domestic epidemic, China's economic growth rate in the first three quarters was 3%.

　　Feng Xuming believes that the effective improvement of quality and the reasonable growth of quantity are a pair of organisms that complement each other and are not contradictory.

Especially under the current situation, maintaining a reasonable increase in quantity is an important prerequisite for achieving an effective improvement in quality.

　　Feng Xuming predicts that in 2023, China's economy is expected to show an accelerated recovery trend, and the economic growth rate will gradually return to the potential growth rate level.

Under the joint effect of factors such as the base effect and the 20 major policy dividends, it is expected to achieve an economic growth rate of more than 5% for the whole year.

Data map: The golden tourist route of Anhui high-speed rail - the Chihuang high-speed rail is picturesque through clouds and fog.

Photo by Li Heping

Emphasize the formation of synergy

Optimize epidemic prevention and control measures

　　The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to strengthen the coordination and cooperation of various policies,

　　On December 7, the Comprehensive Team of the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council in Response to the Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Epidemic issued the "Notice on Further Optimizing and Implementing the Prevention and Control Measures of the New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic", proposing 10 new measures, including the prohibition of various forms of temporary closure , Non-high-risk areas shall not restrict the movement of people, and shall not suspend work, production, business, etc.

　　Since December, many places across the country have begun to optimize epidemic prevention and control measures, including no longer conducting normal nucleic acid testing, taking public transportation, and no longer checking negative nucleic acid certificates when entering public places.

　　Zhang Lianqi said that in the first half of 2023, the epidemic prevention and control measures will be optimized to get rid of the impact of the epidemic. Various measures to stabilize growth will be implemented. In particular, reform and opening up will increase efforts to stabilize expectations and confidence. The actual growth rate may be higher .

Clarify the five major policies

Fiscal "strengthening and improving efficiency", currency "precise and powerful"

　　Five major policies were deployed at the meeting: "

."

　　The meeting pointed out that "continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy." This fixed tone has not changed, but the specific requirements have new connotations.

　　Zhang Lianqi suggested that the contradiction between fiscal revenue and expenditure next year will still be relatively prominent, and the available surplus funds will be slightly insufficient compared with previous years. Therefore, next year's fiscal deficit ratio can be considered to increase slightly, which can be arranged at 3.1%, which is close to the level of 2021, and the central fiscal deficit can be moderately expanded. Increase the transfer payment from the central government to local governments.

　　Feng Xuming said that under the circumstances of shrinking demand from enterprises and residents, insufficient credit willingness, and blocked monetary policy transmission channels, macro-control should pay more attention to the role of fiscal policy in stabilizing aggregate demand.

At the same time, monetary policy should provide support for fiscal policy, reduce government incremental financing costs and stock debt burdens by guiding relevant interest rates down, and prevent liquidity shocks and debt burdens from pushing up local government fiscal risks.

Data map: Xiamen Port Haicang Container Terminal.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Wang Dongming

Put forward "four dares"

Let the cadres dare to act, the localities dare to break through, the enterprises dare to do it, and the masses dare to be the first

　　The meeting emphasized that it is necessary to persist in hard work, stimulate the entrepreneurial vitality of the whole society, and

　　Zhang Lianqi believes that behind the "four dares" is the tendency of "laying flat" and "involving" in these four aspects in the past three years, which highlights the problem orientation and stimulates the entrepreneurial vitality of the whole society.

　　Feng Xuming said that as a meeting to seek ideas and set the tone for next year's economic work, the "four dares" were put forward to send two clear signals to the whole society: one is a signal of development.

We must pay more attention to economic development and guide the whole society to devote more energy to starting a business and promoting high-quality economic development.

The second is a signal of innovation and reform.

Innovation refers to technological innovation at the level of the technology industry. Reform is essentially a system innovation. Both innovation and reform are important means to improve total factor productivity.

Next, with the promulgation and implementation of a series of specific policies, these signals will become more clear, and its guiding role in all sectors of society will be highlighted more quickly, encouraging local governments and various market players to release development vitality through innovation and reform, and accumulate Development impetus to promote high-quality economic development.

　　According to the usual practice, after the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, the Central Economic Work Conference will also be held soon.

By then, the context of China's economic work in 2023 will be clearer.

(Finish)